griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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To play devil's advocate, just minor fluctuations with the modeled pattern and features easily yields some widely varying results, especially at this range.
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After a few wobbles north, the 12z EPS mean wobbled south this run. A little less amp on the wave and a little more press with the NE trough
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Big big totals in parts of SW VA again (20-30 inches)
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At 156, it's heavy snow NW of a line from Hickory to Winston
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It pretty much matches the UKMet run to a T
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The wave actually looks really good...closes off over W TN / N MS. Temps are just brutal though, but snowing good in SW VA at 150
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Euro looks quite good with the wave at 500mb, but the temps are a bit of a struggle.
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Overall it's a nice southern sliding wave...temps aren't great overall though
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Euro pretty similar to last run out to 120...low is just SE of Houston...850 0 deg across southern NC
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I disagree
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12z FV3 loop
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Just looked...you are correct QC at hr120, but at hr144 the 0 deg at 850 is on the NC/VA line....so, it surges well north...good for VA, not for south of there
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Again, evolution is similar to FV3, but a little north
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12z UKMet
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12z GEFS Mean took a baby step south like the Op
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Looking at 500mb on FV3 at hr96, it's quite similar to it's last run...it may end up slightly north / slightly south but I'm guessing it will be another good run for many
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We'll know it's a stock SE winter storm once you break out the GFS fail boat gif...welcome back
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12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast
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I think we can call it a baby step toward the snowy FV3 and go to lunch I guess
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12z GFS definitely coming in a little south of last run...supported by 500mb southern wave handling
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Also on the UKMet it keeps running the damming high out ahead of our storm a bit too much....it's not running in tandem with the low like the Euro
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12z UKMet on the early maps is a nice slider with sfc low from roughly Houston to Brunswick, GA. Not as phase happy this run...southern wave makes a clean sweep west to east....it looks a bit north of the snowy 06z FV3 run though.
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For the central and southern areas of the forum, I'd want to see that confluence area created by the southern stream connecting to the Northeast trough to be solid, well-timed, and not retreat north too early...and I'd want the southern wave to make a clean sweep, unencumbered west to east and slide right off the southeast/mid-atlantic coast...and the farther south that west to east trek the better. Go take a look at the 06z FV3 GVS - it nailed it
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Looking at the last few runs of the EPS Mean (including this morning's 06z run), there has been a subtle, though noteworthy, north trend with the system and temperatures. At 500mb, the main changes I see are that the amplitude of our southern wave has increased and the blocking confluence region ahead of the storm in the critical area of Ohio/Maryland/PA has climbed north a touch. To me, the target area for heaviest snow at the moment would be SW VA into Central VA, with the extent of wintry precip to the south of there dependent on the strength of the damming high and extent of the cold air source. Right now, the EPS mean is showing dewpoints in the teens in Virginia on Saturday as the storm approaches. For the hardcore mixed precip events in central NC down into the SC upstate and into NE GA, we typically see dewpoints in the single digits in Virginia. Now, that's a surface plot on an ensemble mean 5 days away, but nevertheless, you'd want to see a colder trend there for more mixed wintry precip to the south. In terms of precip, it does indeed look to be a heavy event as others have mentioned for the areas that take a flush hit by the storm given the solid southern stream wave and gulf intake.
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With the northern stream now getting into the fray and diving down into the trough on the UKMet, Euro. FV3, there are going to be all kinds of wild runs this week.
