griteater

I take this part back...I see now that the chart hasn't been updated in a while, so we are likely in solar max conditions now (at the top portion of the curve), also seen on the 2nd chart I posted

OK, I hadn't seen those papers. In fairness, you previously mentioned "The high solar activity also is a +NAO signal", which implied it was for the full winter, whereas these papers focus on a +NAO signal in February during solar cycle max (1st paper) or during strong solar cycle max (2nd paper). It's a bit difficult to say whether the upcoming winter would be designated as solar cycle ascending or solar cycle max, as seen here from a chart that GaWx previously posted... The 2014-2015 winter that you mentioned was on the other side of solar max, and it's designation is also unclear - could be solar max or solar descending...

Where have you read this? Is there a source, website / paper?

Aug 22 to 27 TAO subsurface images. Warm 'anomalies' (not means) are building west a bit at the surface, but also, the east-based warming is being reinforced at the surface and at depth...and the thermocline is flattening some with this wave moving east at depth.

Yay, a bump downward in a sea of IOD and East Based Nino gone warm and wild!

For a SST forecast, I like a slightly cooler version of the 72-73 analog. On CPC ONI, that one peaked at 2.1 / 2.1 / 1.8. I think this year's won't move from East-Based to Basin-wide until late or very late winter

Update to TAO loop (in 10-day increments). Some downwelling warmth moving in on the latest image

Keeping this simple (for my own sake), the moderate to strongly positive IOD fall years during +ENSO / El Nino haven't translated to wintry winters in the East as a whole for the most part (19-20, 15-16, 06-07, 97-98, 94-95, 72-73, 63-64 *this last one was wintry). Of course, 3 of those are super ninos, so that factors in. The IOD typically fades in late fall, so there must be a sort of lag effect into winter, not uncommon with SST effects on weather...but I would think that a robust IOD would foster convection in the Indian Ocean during fall/winter which propagates east into the Maritime Continent at times (La Nina like...MJO phases 2-3-4). Other El Ninos that did not experience a mod or strong postive IOD would include: 14-15, 09-10, 04-05, 02-03, 91-92, 87-88, 86-87, 82-83 *this one did have a high but short-lived spike, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 68-69, 65-66 This is from the Australian BOM. Just scanning thru old IOD graphs, it looks like what would be considered mod and strong +IOD would be a non-short period in the fall where the IOD is +1.0 or higher. On the latest UKMet Office data, the IOD is up to +1.18 after a recent, sharp spike. 1994 and 2009 shown for comparison...

After a period of active E Pacific uplift, model forecasts are showing a flip and setup uplift in the W Pacific / Indonesia and subsidence over the E Pacific / Americas. This is normal ebb and flow with ENSO, but should slow down any robust Nino region warming.

It’s just thoughts and ideas being thrown out raindance. No one knows for sure what’s going to happen

I thought this was a pretty hilarious tweet from Stanfield. His VP loop runs from early-June to mid-August, and in the big picture, there is almost no change occurring (as opposed to some big movement toward a big El Nino). The +VP in the E Indian Ocean and over S America just pulses in strength but remains locked in the same location. Same for the -VP in the W Pac. The -VP pulsing up in recent days in the E Pac is associated with the tropical cyclones there and not representative of some low frequency East El Nino forcing (could it go in that direction over time, yes, but it's not there right now). Also, the +VP at the end of the loop in the W Indian Ocean is not representative of a +IOD / El Nino pattern. A +IOD / El Nino pattern would have uplift (-VP) in the W Indian Ocean. For some reason, there seems to be a group of twitter posters that are just dying to push this El Nino forward....and/or that like pushing the narrative that this is a 97-98 type redo that is destined to be a winter fail in the East.

"The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming" - this should lead to some E Pac warming, yes, but I wouldn't think it contributes to Nino 3.4 warming "the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”" - in a general sense, yes, but similar to what we've been seeing over the past few months IMO "the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again." - maybe GaWx can give us a forecast on the SOI. SOI did recently have a 6 day run of -20 or lower, but has since gone positive. It looks like Low Pressure builds across the Pacific Basin over the next 10 days, but also eventually building west into N Australia / Indonesia, so I'd think -SOI potential has some limits. The decline in OHC since mid-June has flatlined, yes. Some increase going forward is possible, yes, but I don't see it going bonkers with it. "The +IOD taking shape" - a general move toward increasing +IOD over the next couple months maybe, but not seeing a pressure pattern that would favor a big increase over the next couple weeks. "The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C" - I will give you this one...the Nino regions just want to be warm this year in spite of robust Nino favored processes In addition, the -VP over the next 2 weeks is forecast to hang back into the W Pac where it has been for a while and the MJO remains in the COD for now

I’d say this is more opinion than it is “evidence growing by the day.” I personally don’t believe any model showing +2.0 or higher for multiple tri-monthlies. Could I be wrong? Of course, but other than models rising in the August output, what is the “evidence growing by the day?”

TAO subsurface loop in 10-day increments over the past month

The ship has probably already sailed on us going into a big +IOD like 1994, 1997, or 2019 (all non-winter winters in the east). I suppose a moderate +IOD is still possible which could aid El Niño development with improved subsidence in Indonesia and associated feedbacks. The MJO is the bigger one to me that there was a lot of talk on it becoming active, and it has just been dead for a long time now, which has contributed to us not seeing these waves of westerly wind bursts working from the W Pac into the Dateline, and the subsurface warmth has suffered because of it

Oh I didn’t mean to imply that I disagreed with it…was just saying that in general

Good effort and nice write-up. Enjoyed it. Everyone’s not going to agree with all of it, but that’s fine and part of the deal. Your write-up reminded me of a quote that I liked from DT some years ago… “It is our view that doing the science and going through the steps is as important as coming up with the right answer. A lot of people don't understand this, as the emphasis in our culture is on getting the right answer. For example, if I forecast the winter pattern based upon the number of socks in my dresser drawer and the forecast turns out to be correct, it doesn't mean my technique was scientifically based and/or it can be used in the future.” Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) – November 2016

Yeah, this isn't going to be a C Pac Nino from a SST standpoint. The 'hope' for East Coast winter interests is that Nino3.4 rises to Strong instead of Super, and that the C Pac westerly wind bursts remain at bay for the most part, keeping the Walker Cell uplift closer to the Dateline as opposed to it moving forcefully into the E Pac along with heavy SST warming moving into Nino3.4 and Nino3 via a Super Nino. If we just look at where we are over the last 2 months (Jun 1 to Aug 9), the VP structure this year is more akin to 2009 than it is to 2015. Does that stay the same? Don't know, but my guess is that it heavily depends on the items mentioned in paragraph 1. Note: You could even make the case that this year is west of 2009 when you look at the +VP subsidence regions being farther west in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic/South America.

As an oncoming El Nino, in Nino 3.4, 2023 is tracking as a warmer version of 2002/2009 and a cooler version of 1997/2015 1991 was odd. A big cool down in late summer before a big warm up in fall

I understand the spirit of your comment about snow, but even in the Northeast, sure, you don't want to see a 1977 Arctic plunge pattern, but I'd think you'd want a pattern that produces at least cool anomalies For fun (ha), here are the temperature anomalies for the Top 10 snowiest winters in Worcester

Euro Aug 1 Seasonal has a slightly weaker than normal Strat PV at 10mb beginning in mid-Dec and extending to early Feb on the ensemble mean. Let's see how this trends going forward, but just going off memory, the Euro tends to do a decent job with Strat forecasting

That's one heck of a split-flow / powerhouse subtropical jet stream look there for January

+2.0 does tend to be a sort of tipping point. It reminds me of my backyard gas grill. If I don't clean it out on a regular basis and then throw burgers on there, it can get to a point where the flames get out of control in a hurry if I don't stay on top of it with the temperature control, lol. Here is a comparison of all Super El Ninos vs. all Strong El Ninos since the late 1800's for January-March (I couldn't include 2015-2016 due to the 20CV3 data ending in 2015). Biggest differences are seen along the U.S. West Coast and in the region of the E Great Lakes into the Northeast. Classic West Based -NAO shown on the Strong El Nino composite. Here is the same comparison, but with 850mb Temperatures Taking this back to December, we can see that both composites show pretty much a throw away for winter weather in the eastern 1/2 of the country, kind of opposite of La Nina - I don't know the specifics of why that is, but I suspect it has to do with how the seasonal cycle typically evolves from fall to winter during El Nino vs. La Nina.

Yeah, that one too. I was looking for prior year La Ninas, but early 2002 was still in some weak negative ENSO numbers from the multi-year La Nina

Latest MEI update is in at +0.3 for June/July. For years coming off La Nina and flipping to El Nino, the closest matches right now with the MEI since 1980 are 2006-2007 and 2009-2010 (not shown on chart below which is from the MEI page) MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory