griteater

Kathy coming in strong with post #1. Boom Euro sounding at Greensboro for 1AM Tues has 32 deg at the sfc with a +10C warm nose...probably as big a warm nose as you'll ever see with sfc at freezing or below

Can’t recall so much angst over freezing rain in years past. Toughen up people

Was just thinking, the Icon and UKMet have a very similar look with more (and ideal) spacing between the southern wave and the SE Canada TPV to produce a winter storm

Generally that is the right idea, but the more amplified and more negative tilt the southern wave is, the more warming you will see aloft, with added pressure to the southern edge of the wedge boundary to where it can be overwhelmed. Just depends on how it shakes out in the end. The various solutions are being presented on the modeling

With the ICON setup, most likely the primary low would track into E TN and die off, with a secondary low forming off Myrtle Beach / Wilmington. The models don’t handle those specifics with sfc low evolution along the wedge boundary very well out in time

Tonight's WPC Forecast map for Day 7

18z EPS was the first run of the last few that moved a little more wintry instead of the other way. The next, say, day and a half should paint the big picture in terms of how this is going to shake out. If we were to hold the look of this latest EPS Mean, it's going to be hard to avoid a noteworthy winter storm IMO given the cold, dry airmass underneath that high, and with growing support for a healthy swath of precip associated with the southern stream wave. It could go the other way as well with less high pressure and a more negatively tilted, and stronger, southern wave (warmer). At 500mb, we can see on this run how the southern wave is a little more positive tilt and farther south thru the Rio Grande...and the heights are pressing south a little more over Maine thru NY. Accordingly, at the same timeframe, here we can see a bit stronger damming high configuration on this run with a little more suppression to the low in the Gulf

Euro has frz rain roughly NW of a line from Raleigh to Gainesville, GA at 168, then it blasts the freezing line north at 171 EPS Mean has been trending this way the last few runs...quicker with the shortwave in the SW states and slower with moving the TPV ESE.

The fail scenario though is the high getting hung up too far west like the UKMet with the TPV not progressing east / ESE fast enough...or that would postpone things anyway

Menacing CAD (Monday Night)

Probably more sleet compared to freezing rain than shown on Euro in parts of NC and maybe down into upstate, but would have to look at soundings

It would need some changes to see more snow, but yeah, it would need to track farther south with less neg tilt. The TPV would need to be farther south to accomplish that and suppress the track more

Near ‘perfect’ freezing rain setup as the southern wave and retreating TPV in SE Canada were closer together so the high was in ‘perfect’ damming location during the storm with strong cold source. Also, southern wave goes negative tilt and tracks to our northwest so the mid levels warm

1.5+ of Freezing Rain QPF Charlotte to Greensboro to Danville on Euro, but widespread totals

Big CAD setup on Euro Mon night into Tues. Ice down to Macon and Orangeburg. Retreats north but upstate stays below freezing full storm

EPS Mean trend loop of last 6 runs (ending at hr144 from 18z run). Wave in SW is gaining in amplitude. Sharpening ridge in SW Canada helps to strengthen the high over Iowa. TPV a little slower to escape over SE Canada. The high and the cold air mass with it favor a winter storm, but if we want more sleet/snow and less freezing rain, I would want to see a more modest amplitude wave over the SW (or have it positioned farther south) and the TPV over SE Canada nudging farther south down into NY/PA here at 144.

Late week is like the junior undercard bouts, while early next week has Mike Tyson vs Buster Douglas potential, with Michael Buffer doing the intros

It’s like Field of Dreams. Build in the cold high pressure, and the winter storm will come.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=GSP-N0C-0-24-100-usa-rad

Decent snow here now in SW Lake Norman. Road beginning to cover

Good run overall on the GFS...on the flip side, the UKMet at hr144 loses the NE Pac ridging so the TPV gets hung up in Canada...model mayhem it is

The Upstate decided to gift E Gaston and Mecklenburg counties the warm bubble with this storm

On the GEFS, the current storm at hr66 (just east of Novia Scotia at the beginning of the loop), deepens in the North Atlantic and helps to build ridging back into Greenland at the end of the run. Another retrograding -NAO block?

Sleet/Snow mix. Light dusting. SW Lake Norman