griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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3 inches reported in Travelers Rest
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10pm temperatures
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Rates picking up and I’ve got a rain/sleet/snow mix here near the SW corner of Lake Norman
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Lol it’s the reverse of the upstate warm bubble
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It's right on the edge. If the warm layer is 0 to +1C, flakes will partial melt then refreeze lower down, staying as snow. If warm layer is +1 to +3C, more melting will occur and then it would refreeze lower down as sleet
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Yep, GFS was delayed about a day and a half compared to the previous run with dropping the TPV down...fine with that as long as it actually drops down at some point lol...that's the bigger question in my mind
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It's a tough forecast for sure. burrell and others have been on this, but if it will come in hot and heavy on the leading edge of the frontogenesis band that is propagating north, it will want to drop the sfc temps to 33-34 for some wet snow accumulations while the sun is down (which helps). 18z GFS sounding in the upstate at 10pm
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Guess I'm going to have to start liking the HRRR if this is correct. This is for 6pm to 3am
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Yeah it's a different ballgame if we can just get the cold TPV to drop down. Large area of -20 deg C temperatures at 850mb (pink contour) in bottom right image...with -30 deg C contour as well (purple)...on GFS at day 6-7.
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This SE Forum gallop poll begs to differ
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Was going to say the same thing lol but want to see if the Euro follows up last night’s run. In fairness, the UKMet doesn’t go out into the long range as you know
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I just want to see the cold vortex in Canada drop down. Euro/EPS from last night never dropped it down because it loses the NE PAC ridging, so that’s the close the curtains scenario. UKMet and GFS/GEFS look similar at 144 today where they both want to swing it down out of Canada.
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This is very true, but that cold vortex in Canada gives us a logical reason to keep watching
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High Pressure on the GFS days 7-15
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Tomorrow was pretty much garbage from the get go
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Happy hour GFS has a light snow storm on day 10 and major wintry mix storm on day 12. Yeah I know that's crazy being so far out, but whatever. Honestly, I can't recall ever seeing a model run that held good high pressure in place for so long like this one.
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The wave dampens out, but it has light snow across the south and into the Carolinas. GFS actually has a really good looking pattern (lol) after that high drops down as it just holds the cold high over the upper Midwest with an active southern stream
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Happy hour GFS may try to deliver actually, let's see. It's later of course. The window simply isn't going to open, obviously, until that TPV in Canada (and sfc high) drops down into the conus. Wave in the 4 corners at hr216 with lots of cold out front
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Well this is no way to start a weekend. Only happy hour can save us now (in more ways than one). Now watch the EPS improve from its last run
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Wrong direction on the Euro...big change from its previous run and mirrors the move that the other models made today
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CMC is crazy looking at the end...it has the entire coast from Brownsville to south of New Orleans below freezing with warm advection precip from the gulf being thrown up into the cold air (wintry mix)
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12z GFS/CMC/UKMet all have that look of late week rain storm, then cold (UKMet only out to 144 shows the rainstorm setup, don't know afterward)...let's see what the Ensembles and Euro show
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After the Thu-Fri rainstorm, the GFS ain't playing with the cold...drops the TPV down into the Great Lakes and has a very tall ridge up thru Alaska
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Yeah, long way out, but at the moment, the setup would favor modest surface low pressure strength, so naturally, weak to moderate winds instead of heavy
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Should be just the next version of the Euro Operational. It’s the new and improved version as long as it keeps pumping out snow maps like those above
