Powerball

If you listened to WWJ (950 AM) during the afternoon rush in the 2000s, Sonny Eliot was the regular on-air metereologist. This was long after he had retired from TV (he was the Chief Meteorologist at WDIV until the late 70s). While he was a fine weatherman, he wasn't nearly as revered as Tom Skilling has been for his technical expertise. It was more so his personality and eccentric way of delivering forecasts that won him favor with his audience. What was unique about him was that he was always perky on-camera (although I heard he was kind of difficult to work with behind the scenes), cracking jokes and speaking in riddles. https://youtu.be/0WyBMhnmGb8?si=Mz1fmA1iaEGLbCmm

I was going to ask you aboutt that and I'm glad you addressed it, because I figured (and I recall you saying in the past) there wasn't the greatest correlation historically between November weather and how winters end up. Definitely gotta be careful with putting too much weight on any recent trends.

IYKYK...

Bless his heart...

Now that the 90s & 100s seem to be mostly gone for good (for sure after this Thursday)... Revisiting this post, it's crazy how many records we set or tied this Summer, for it being mostly backloaded. 1980 and 2011 both still reign as kings, but this year was definitely a solid runner up behind the 2 by most measures. And that doesn't even speak to September. I suspect JAS period was also amongst the warmest on record for DFW, similar to how MJJ was in 2022.

There wasn't much thunder here either. I heard maybe one good crack.

On another note, DFW overachieved temp-wise yesterday as it tied the record high of 96*F from 1898. This was with quite a bit of cloud cover too.

It's going to be entertaining lurking and watching @hardypalmguy troll @michsnowfreak the next 6 months. He's being a good sport about it though.

Respectfully, you can keep your snark to yourself. So an isolated part of the Metroplex saw 70+ MPH winds. Most areas did not. An isolated high-end report did not make enough justification for an enhanced risk outlook IMO. In fact, my take aligns exactly with the official SPC definitions: I stand by what I said and you're free to feel whatever type of way about it.

Also, I will say, I did see widespread observations of wind gusts in the 35-45 MPH range, which (although sub-severe) is something. And that was likely in part due to the somewhat lower than expected RH levels mentioned, as that helped to enhance the downdrafts a bit (though still not enough to overcome the cooling boundary layer).

Only 3 confirmed reports so far in DFW. Granted, there may be more forthcoming, but in all likelihood still not enough to be enhanced risk worthy IMO. Aside from that overachieving mini-bow echo that moved into FW proper (and actually weakened shorty thereafter), it's been largely "more bark than bite" severe-wise, with impressive shear on paper that didn't translate into a more impressive event. And that's pretty typical for these nighttime events in the Fall, which is why I didn't really buy into the hype. That being said, it's certainly been a solid event rain-wise for the Metroplex and has been a prolific lightning producer.

The severe threat is definitely there. I just disagree that it's great enough for an upgrade to an enhanced risk (as you seem to) for DFW. The better potential will be NW of here, where the activity will occur during or just after peak heating.

To clarify, the reason I say somewhat marginal instability for severe weather is because much of that instability on the sounding you presented is elevated. Even the CAMs indicate a stable layer forming near the surface by the time the storms arrive into DFW (temps only in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s), which will significantly temper downburst potential. Instability and moisture levels are definitely good enough for prolific rain producers and frequent lightning though, which is already pretty well covered in the current outlooks/forecasts.

Not going to happen due to less than ideal timing (late evening hours) and already somewhat marginal instability with an unimpressive dewpoint/temp spread, likely preventing much of that shear from mixing down to the surface. The enhanced risk is mainly for very large hail (2-3"+) with the initial activity.

In all likelihood, this September will end up being the 2nd warmest on record for DFW. Only September 2019 was warmer.

I'm good, as the trade off will be not having to deal with never-ending freezing temps a couple months from now.

One of the shortest and sweetest AFDs I've ever seen. And the previous discussion for reference:

Welp, the 80s that were in the forecast went POOF. But we seem to be finally done with the 100s, lol...

Ending uo getting no more rain more other than the 30s seconds of fat raindrops from earlier yesterday afternoon.

It's finally my turn. Ton of CTG lightning.

In the mean time, DFW made it to 101*F for the 2nd day in a row, another record...

For what little it's worth. Radar/satellite look quite underwhelming thus far...

Just got a bunch of fat raindrops for about 30 seconds. Was enough to dampen the ground and make a few puddles. Fortunately, most of this weak sauce crap percolating seems to missing the airport, so another 100*F high should still be on the table.