Powerball

17 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

that typhoon is recent and had no effect on June or the first half of July.

Never said it was, because in fact June was actually solidly to well-above normal across much of the country.

The Typhoon though is definitely helping to reinforce, for the short/medium-term, the ongoing pattern with Western Ridging and Central/Eastern Troughing that has been in place for much of July as we enter the climatologically hottest part of the year, which is really killing any shot of those bullish Summer forecasts verifying at this point (although I will caveat this by saying there's still the last 2/3rds of August to get through).

17 hours ago, rainsucks said:

the Plains still shouldn't be that cold in a largely dominant +EPO regime though, so weird.

There's still next Summer though, which will likely end up being the more torchy one this Summer was originally projected to be (if historic 2nd year Nina climatology is any indication).

31 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

very surprised by how the pattern has played out this month. I'm not complaining though, it's been nice.

A much slower than expected transition to a La Nina ENSO state and the ongoing Super Typhoon in the West Pacific has definitely screwed up what were originally the expectations for this Summer.

Stratiform rain (not even thunder) and temps in the 70s at 1pm in late July for North Texas is surreal...

On 7/15/2024 at 5:06 PM, Powerball said:

Today's intra-hour high of 100*F was the 7th one this season for DFW.

Made it to 101*F at DFW today, hottest day of the year (and 8th 100*F+ day) thus far...

5 hours ago, Spartman said:

89'd 3 days in a row. What a joke. August, please.

Numerous major cities this season have been paralyzed by severe t'storms & tropical systems in what has been a historically exceptional, deadly and costly year for extreme weather.

Menawhile, to WestMichigan's point, you're busy in here going:

"nO 8-9, mE 90!!! UGgA bUgGa!!!"

Mother Nature just says she's going bullseye for all the big cities this year.

22 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

They just said yall get TOR Warnings.

Today's intra-hour high of 100*F was the 7th one this season for DFW.

The delayed transition from an El Nino to Neutral to La Nina ENSO state (now it may not happen until well into the Fall) has definitely thrown a wrench into what were the pattern expectations for this Summer.

It's good in that those impressive temp anomalies originally forecasted back in the Spring will now likely bust too high.

DFW snagged a late day intra-hour high of 100*F today (6th this season), which will seemingly be the last one for a while...

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

And also the 5th 100*F day of the year

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

5 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW tied yet another record maximum low of 82*F this morning.

Today is also the 4th 100*F high for the year.

DFW tied yet another record maximum low of 82*F this morning.

DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 100*F today (3rd this season) *and* set another record maximum low of 83*F this morning.

Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts:

1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaningful impacts confined to Louisiana and eastward.

2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted with moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico

#2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region.

DFW set new record maximum lows both on 6/29 and 6/30, with lows of 81F and 82F respectively.

DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 100*F today, 2nd time this season.

DFW may have tied the record low minimum of 82*F this morning, which was just set last year.

In all likelihood, DFW should also see its first 80*F low of the season tomorrow...

And it begins. DFW observed its first 100*F high of the season today, 3 days earlier than last year and a day earlier than average.

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was pretty much as I expected. Hot, very humid, and miserable, but it's intensity way overblown by some of the media. 

All the tropical activity / moisture over the GOM being transported northward definitely dirtied things up as far as temp potential and cloud cover, which isn't too surprising with the transitional ENSO period we're in.

That said, Summer's just beginning and all indications are (and have been) the worst of the heat will be backloaded.

I just checked my grids locally, and despite everyone hoping this might be a cool-ish Summer for North Texas with all the rain this Spring, we already have highs in the 100s starting tomorrow for days on end (with heat headlines likely forthcoming)...

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTW peaked at 88 today, so the consecutive say streak ends at 4, although tomorrow will be in the 90s too.

Mon- 95

Tue- 90

Wed- 91

Thu- 92

Fri- 88

This was also the longest 90*F+ streak DTW has seen since July 2020...

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

According to my watch just hit 90 of the far NE side of the city 

DTW's likely going to fall short, as more convection percolated to the SW of the airport ans moved overhead.