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Everything posted by Violentweatherfan
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Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
@Rjay can you clean up this thread? -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
I was watching NJ Weather and start time should e about 1pm area wide for all of bucks county -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Joe Cioffi is really good, and so was Bill Goodman. Joe needs to get a better microphone though, for whatever reason the guests audio always sound better -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
The trolls are out, just scroll on by. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
From the Joe and Joe show snow ratios should be greater than 10:1 once on the west side of the storm as it pulls down colder air. Wind direction changes from easterly to northeasterly positively impacting accumulations -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Did you catch the part of the show where they shared information about the European model isn’t what it used to be. There were changes made to it and it isn’t the same “Dr. No” ? -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Holy shit -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Interesting bit of information from the Joe and Joe show this evening is that the European model isn’t the same model we are accustomed to. It’s more of the control version, there where changes made to it and isn’t the same model it was a couple of years ago -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
In all seriousness, he should have or maybe he did have an analysis why he is going with the euro and why it’s showing less totals and pointing out on the GFS is wrong. I never saw his original post. I don’t really have Twitter. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
This is as close to an analog as you can get. Finally I see an event with the MJO in phase 3 and a weak or transitioning La Niña Edit: it was in the circle of death during January I searched for February thanks -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
I highly recommend that Joe and Joe weather show on YouTube right about now -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
These are two really good posts. Especially when forecasting accumulation expectations -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
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I’m convinced it’s the NWS budget cuts
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Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
I’m still looking for any appreciable snowfall, more than 10 inches that has occurred during a weak La Niña with the MJO in phase 4. Oh and very little cold air to work with. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Don’t do that to yourself -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
It must have been the El Nino and active MJO pattern -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Violentweatherfan replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
I’m thinking greenskeeper -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Violentweatherfan replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Everyone was on that bandwagon, I remember Paul Kocin on TWC Friday night showing a graphic with SEPA in the bullseye with 2 to 3 feet of snow. Then on Saturday a coworker saying it wasn’t going to snow, and I was like wtf get out of here. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Violentweatherfan replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
We do get snow when the MJO is in phase 4 or phase 5 but nothing of significance. Our first snow this season, the one that was a “two-part” system kinda over performed. Those totals where what 6” tops. So when models are spitting out 12” inch totals or more, you have to be careful with expectations -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Violentweatherfan replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Actually you want the MJO to be in phase 8 or phase 1. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Violentweatherfan replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
The MJO is gonna be in phase 3/4 by this storm period. I’d temper the excitement and brace for a model change -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Violentweatherfan replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
The MJO is going in the wrong direction too. Not sure how late February to mid March is gonna deliver. The only possible is if the MJO forecast is wrong -
2025-2026 ENSO
Violentweatherfan replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He also pointed out how off the forecast was for the MJO. It’s definitely going in the wrong direction so here is to hoping if is off about that.
