ChangeofSeasonsWX

I think that a lot of people are still sore over the fact that they had the rug pulled on them at the last minute and they can't accept the outcome. I get it...it sucks and I would've been disappointed too if I missed out on a 1978 redux. But trying to invalidate the official measurements just to make yourself feel like you didn't miss out on it is not the solution either.

Keep in mind also that even the day after the storm we had a lot of direct sun and it was also very warm. It nearly cracked 40 degrees around here! So you have to take into account not only natural compaction but also the relatively warm temperatures and bright sunshine the next day. Is it possible that some people measured drifts and/or old snow? Of course. But I feel like the people who do the official measurements at TF Green know how to avoid those issues? Considering the fact that their measurements affect the official records you would think that they know what they're doing. For what's its worth, I measured a relatively flat area on my sidewalks with no drifts and no old snow and it was 31", and I wasn't even in the area of the absolute heaviest snow! That was from like Providence to the Fall River area. So I could see people getting around 36" since they were in that band of very heavy snow for longer than me.

I'm not saying that temps don't count, just that the stall of 78 was definitely a factor in the high totals. Due to this marginal airmass that we have, if this one had tracked 50-75 further northwest that probably would've brought the mixing line from Cape Cod up to my area which would've reduced totals somewhat. Temperatures were already marginal as it is in this area. If we had a colder airmass to work with like 78 had then yeah it would've been big. But even in that case, there is still no way to tell exactly where the heaviest banding would've set up. In 1978, the heaviest totals were actually a little north of this one, around N Rhode Island to the Boston Area, which makes sense given that 1978 tracked a bit northwest of this one. Most areas in SEMA "only" got like 16-20" based on historical maps. It was still PVD's biggest storm for many years though. There are just so many factors at play so it's hard to say what would've happened if this one was further northwest.

Well unless we had a colder antecedent airmass in place, I think that we would've mixed with sleet here if this past one came 50 miles northwest. With the current airmass I think it would've held down accumulations somewhat. It would've been similar to what 2015 was around here. The 30+ totals around ORH/BOS and then around 20" in this area further south. Still historic but not a benchmark kind of storm that it was. I think a lot of people are sore about this storm understandably, but unless you get a stall like 78 or another 97 with a much colder airmass in place, it's near impossible to get 30+ over the whole area.

Yeah but regardless of temperature, 1978 stalled which was the main reason why there were those high totals over a large area. If this one tracked further inland wouldn't it have been another Feb 2013 where CT gets those totals instead of SEMA/RI?

Don't worry you will get your benchmark storm someday.

Yeah I feel bad for areas north and west of us that got the rug pulled last minute. It really is a shame considering what the models were showing at first. This was a 1 in 200 year event for this area and I would've been extremely disappointed if I had the rug pulled on my area as well. The worst part about experiencing a storm like this is knowing that nothing else will ever top it. I got 31" IMBY which is the most I've ever seen and nothing else comes close. I mean, PVD broke its all-time record by 9.3" which is beyond insane. The odds of us seeing something like this again around here is like zero. ORH saw over 30" in 1992, 1997 and 2015. You guys have a better shot at seeing 30" again. Several meteorologists talked about how this storm hit the “Goldilocks situation" of just the right temperature for wet heavy snow and claim that if it tracked any farther inland that it would've lost a lot of its moisture and not dropped as much snow. I'm not sure how valid it is but this article was an interesting read: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/blizzard-snow-storm-science/3905033/%3f You have to wonder if climate change keeps increasing the amount of moisture in these storms, maybe someday we will see more mega QPF bombs like this one. It just has to take the perfect track to crush everyone.

Yeah, but if it ended up going 50-100 miles northwest like you said, would PVD still have broken 1978's record? I'm imagining a situation like Feb 2013 where the firehose sets up over CT instead of SEMA/RI. Don't get me wrong, Feb 2013 was still great around here, but it wasn't historic like what CT saw. So I guess in a way this system was like a reverse of Feb 2013 where SEMA/RI got the goods instead. Even with April 1997, Worcester got insane amounts, and Boston to a lesser degree. PVD still got 18 inches but it doesn't hold a candle to what Worcester got. So if this system had come further northwest would it have been a 1978 redux for the whole area including PVD, or more like a Feb 2013/April 1997 situation where areas north and west get the goods and PVD gets like 12-18? This one didn't stall like 1978 did so I just don't see how it could've been an all-timer for the entire area, even if it came further north.

Are you in a sheltered area by any chance? You said 22-28 inches depending on drifting and accounting for compaction and being in a sheltered area could also affect this. I'm not sure how big N Prov is....maybe it was a very sharp cutoff? Even downtown PVD had some 36" readings which is even more than what I got.

Yeah it most likely compacted a bit like you said. Also, I got 31 inches here in North Seekonk, but still not as much as TF Green or areas like Fall River which supposedly got 40. I think that the absolute jackpot zones were just south of us, from like TF Green eastward to Fall River and maybe northeast to Taunton. Your 22 to 28 inches is still within the expected range though, especially the 28 inches. Drifting, compaction, and being on the north edge of that band of crazy rates were all factors I bet.

31" in Seekonk

I know that there are obviously exceptions like 2005 on Cape Cod and the PYM area, and 1978 in far N Rhode Island, but overall, is it safe to say that this was the biggest snowstorm on record for the RI/SEMA area? Pretty widespread totals over 30 inches and a few close to 40. I'm just outside of Providence and I can tell you that we definitely got more than we did in 1996 and 2005, and I'm assuming 1978 also.

28.6 I think? So it's going to be very close.

Nothing is stopping them. I believe it is a storm total record not just a 24 hour record. I'm just doubtful that it happens because they would have to get another foot of snow after 7am this morning. I suppose it's possible.

A part of me wants PVD to break 1978's record but despite the totals nearby I don't think it's very likely to happen. Maybe they will be 2nd.

Did anyone else notice that 165 mph gust at KPVD? Lol

Wow 59 knots at KPVD. Stronger than the 54 knots they saw in Nemo. Impressive

KPVD 54 knots

1978 was like a 1 in 100 year event probably. 1888 was the last one of that magnitude, although it hit further west than 1978 did.

1978 must have been like a 1 in 100 year event or something. 1888 and 1978 are the only two events that come to mind where 40-50 inches was measured in multiple locations for SNE. So maybe later this century we see another one.

I've always said that at some point in my life I would like to see something IMBY that rivals 1978. I certainly don't expect every biggie to reach those numbers but someday it would be fun to experience that. For the Cape 2005 was bigger than 1978 and for CT I guess it would be Nemo or 1888. 1978 is still the benchmark in the PVD area and while I know that this one wont surpass it, maybe it would come close if these top tier solutions verified.

I wonder what the models would've showed if 1978 happened today

I know that I should be grateful that we at least had a big one on January 25th but after many dud winters it honestly doesn't feel like that was enough. This hobby has very little reward sometimes.

That's true. Don't get me wrong, forecasts have improved enormously over the years but still far from perfect. You would think they would keep improving but it seems like performance plateaued a while ago. We haven't improved much at all in the past ten years. I've heard that they predicted the 1993 storm of the century like a week out but obviously that was an exception in those days.

I wonder when the time will come when we can accurately predict snowfall amounts seven plus days out. I know that we have had storms that were easier to predict than others but it seems like recently we still can't figure out snow totals for a storm even 24 hours in advance. I wonder if AI will change that?