Yeah that's questionable. So one or 2 towns get in a band that to gives 18", but everyone else is 8"? Next time, most people won't believe it. That's not good because in meteorology being believable is paramount, I would think.
That's how it will play out. Always go with the model that show's the least amount of snow, as it's usually correct, based on past history. Especially a global.
The issue is they're all cutting back. Plus the closer in we get to go time, each model run is is more accurate than the last. It's not like having a bad run 5 days before the storm. It's supposed to start snowing in 24 hrs.
At this point, just gotta keep things from trending SE. That MegaSWFE in JAN didn't start tending north until there was only a couple days to go. We just don't know.
I think we can add 2 things to the Fraud Five: coastals that hit the whole region, and run of the mill SWFEs that hit the whole region. Those SWFEs that set up a front along 495/pike/84 with rain SE of that line and 10" of pork snow on the NW side. Used to be so common place 20 years ago.
We really haven't gotten many mixed events this year. It's either been AllSnow or all rain since Turkey day.
Getting 8" of snow and then a quarter inch of rain with a big freeze after used to be very common.