AstronomyEnjoyer

00z Euro in all its glory.

Oh wow, apologies for the compression on that image. Was a tad too aggressive.

UKMET tries to jackpot me, but it also seems convinced I'm getting 5 inches of snow tomorrow. Sorry King Charles, I don't think that's going to happen.

I appreciate you using one of your limited posts for me too, by the way - it really means a lot to me. I'm not sure how I'll top this one, but I'm sure I can concoct something.

I understand that. I'm questioning the nature of the straight-edged, polygonal jump discontinuities that appear in seemingly random places. It seems to me like there's something gone wrong with the output. Like an algorithm hit a corner case and couldn't decide what to spit out. And I guess it could be related to the nature of the mixed precip associated with tomorrow's system and somewhere between input and output there were some gears grinding somewhere but I really have no idea. I used to do a lot of data analysis as a flight test engineer so I'm genuinely curious as to what is happening here.

What in the hell is going on over central NH? There's an algorithm riding the struggle bus or something.

I was as low as 31.3 and bounced back up to 32.5. Sitting at 32.1 right now. Can't do much but wait and see what happens.

I deserved that NAM run, didn't I.

Oh I'm so petty about it. Too many times I've been the bridesmaid, never the bride. I was also out of town when that Dec 2020 storm dumped over 30 inches at my house. Pretty sure that fried my brain, haha.

Thank you, it took me a long time to find that unedited snippet from JPL that doesn't have any redacted words on it or anything.

As I look up, being pelted in the eyes with freezing rain and sleet, haha.

You bet the wagons will be coming north once I start running these models from the Cray in my basement. You're lucky that the 00z 3km NAM currently running is trying to knock power out at my house for the rest of the 2020's.

In more exciting news, my snow depth actually increased to 17" today! Had to measure on a hill as it was the only untouched spot I could find. I found this unedited snippet from JPL that could explain the increase. It was likely due to the warm weather and water expansion.

Aw man, I've hiked up Watatic more times than I can count. Awesome views for such a little hike.

Let's see what the Euro has to say about this potential icing situation. I sure hope it backed off from its 12z run! Let's compare to the 18z! ... It's now 31.3 degrees here...

True, but the school district there is made up of Pepperell, Townsend, and Ashby. I used to get so salty when visiting friends in high school that lived in Ashby as they would always have so much more snow than me. Ashby has to be close to the best town in central Mass for snow.

When I was younger I lived in Pepperell, MA, which, in the scheme of things isn't a terrible place for snow despite having little elevation (I was at like 300ft). But winters up here are just so much different. Snow cover through winter is kind of just the expectation.

Welp, I'm officially at 32.0 on the thermometer. Love this for me.

Don't temp me to post the full 18z GFS run. It's a good one - the colors - so beautiful.

As you can see from this light pollution map, nothing much is going on out this way, lol. Great for astronomy though.

Yeah Keene always seem to get screwed. Maybe they do well in SWFE events? Anyway, here's current snow cover with my location circled. Obviously not every winter is the same, but in general the east slopes do better. I averaged 11.5 inches on the ground at my house at around 4pm today.

Honestly, there doesn't seem to be too much of a downslope/upslope effect off of Sunapee. Not a perfect example, but I certainly get more snow than Newport, Nh - which is to the west and roughly the same altitude. See the annual precip map below. East slopes are wetter on average. Of course that's covering a whole year and not just winter, so far from definitive.

Yeah, I'm dropping like a rock here too. 34.3 already. Not an event I really want to be ahead of schedule on.

Yup, that's the one! This is where I live. Town of Bradford is marked by the dotted line and my house is within the circle. There's actually not any real good way to go direct to Keene from where I live - the fastest way is through Henniker.

The jump from hour 18 to hour 21 on Pivotal for the 18z GFS looks funky.