AstronomyEnjoyer

00z GFS is a slight improvement from the 18z for most people, but nothing really that'll blow your hair back.

Sounds like an experimental convection allowing model that is currently being trialed/tested. Presumably it exists because they are attempting to build better models for the future.

That is quite the little bastard of a valley there.

Whoa, now don't sell it too short. the 18z spat out 4" at my location. The 00z? 5". Incredibly thrilling stuff.

Very easy, pick whichever one gives you more snow.

FWIW, the 00z ICON looks nearly identical to the 18z.

Hopefully the 00z's will continue a trend of juicing up, cause the 18z suite was parched.

Was highlighting the ridiculous output of the HRRR on the south coast of CT. Here's us FFIW. Would take zero stock in it.

Ok, I had to stop watching at hour 40. Cause what in the hell is this? 00z HRRR. This shit is the dreams of a computer.

Ok, while it's not like I really have any faith in the HRRR in the first place, what it's trying to do right now is nonsense.

While not surprising for a model that runs every hour, the 00z HRRR still likes to thump CT

Well, it's not showing quite that much, lol. And the HRRR can be questionable at times too. Although it's shown the thump for quite a few runs now.

A legacy model that runs off vibes.

Uh-oh, is someone fudging numbers? That's okay, if it's any indication of the listed verticals of ski resorts around here, you're allowed to make shit up.

Oh yeah, no shit, it's in your sig.

Yeah can't see how that could possibly happen in this storm. You've got a fair amount of elevation, right?

Kuchera for the SNE folks.

Keep in mind this is the 10:1

Euro is coming in looking much better.

GYX seems a little bullish to me. Have they looked at the 18z runs?

Did some depth auditing up at Stowe earlier today. 17.5" at the road closure - nice depth, everything checks out. Was surprised how little there was (comparatively speaking) in the downtown area (around 10-11" maybe?). I think I might have more on the ground at my house. Disclaimer: For those that might take this photo seriously, please note that I actually have no idea what the snow depth at the Smugglers' Notch road closure on the Stowe side is. I hopped out of my truck and took this photo as quickly as possible. This was in a parking lot right next to a snow bank. It takes a while to line these stupid-ass photos up perfectly - there were tons of people there looking at me like I was a freak.

Hoping you're referring to snow.

"Everything matters at the margin. Wasn’t it just yesterday that you guys got skunked on modeled snow that never came?" Just a heads up - when that's your response to someone stating that their current temp is a non-factor for an upcoming storm, it seems, at least to me, that you're heavily implying that there could be similar p-type issues associated with said upcoming storm. Now you've clarified that you don't believe that will be the case, but you've pre-emptively defended yourself against "detractors". Just don't say stuff like that and you wouldn't have to defend yourself, haha.

35.9 here. Just had a sunny little snow shower roll through. Unexpected but delightful.

This is what I would call a non-zero chance. Just in the same way there's a non-zero chance I will start taking the 3km NAM seriously.