Bob Chill

D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out. The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days.

Yea, and I have it tilted the wrong way. 3 closest NWS obs were higher.

12/4 T 12/11 0.2" 12/16 1.1” Total: 1.3”

BWI: 22.3 DCA: 14.1 IAD: 25.7 RIC: 13.3 TB (SBY): 11.5

BWI 11/11 IAD 10/31 DCA 11/17 RIC 11/11 Tie Rainfall 10.10"

My guess is some sort of lift or convection briefly mixed winds. Reminds me of the temporary breeze you feel in front of a shower. Today's precip was upper level and instability driven. Curious what direction the breeze was out of.

I will take the ICON more seriously with future storms. It picked up on the trailng piece first and also did very well with gradients and ptype etc. All models were too dry leading in. Overall the icon was pretty accurate and consistent.

We're close. I'm on the norbeck side of Rockville and have 11.4. Still snowing and sticking. Lol. Silver spring/wheaton/rockville/derwood did very well. We all have about the same. Very memorable storm.

The ironic thing is the reason the snow totals ended up being much higher than we thought is the same reason it wasn't cold smoke. Lol. I'm good with that. The afternoon snow was very high ratio.

The outer band moved around a lot but the 12z run today showed a bullseye out in winchester and wv panhandle. Was too low. Eta: euro missed the leesburg/upper moco/hoco jackpot between 18-0z. Upper level stuff is really hard to nail placement. That type of precip is almost always a nowcast deal

Euro nailed the band out there. Underdid qpf but placement was perfect. Euro well with qpf leading in. Was showing .65 iad/.70 dca/.50 bwi (going off memory). Not bad at all.

6.5 with round 1 and 4.9 with round 2 so 11.4". Winding down tho so a foot prob won't happen. What a disaster.

Prob a transformer if i had to guess. Not seeing any strikes on lightningmaps.

The icing would be for the big moco-hoco deathband to hold together and rotate through DC as the pivot completes. My guess is no but every conservative guess i've made has been wrong

Afternoon moco death band(s) exceeded my wildest expectations. Incredible storm on all levels. Tracking for days and serious overperformance. Rare occurrence...

10.5" official. 4" since 3pm (very high ratio) and 10" sitting on all elevated hard surfaces. There are going to be double digit totals all over dc/nova/md burbs. Amazing. Want a foot...might happen

This upper level piece tops the entire waa piece with the fun factor.

It feels like i've been watching snow fall continuously for over 24 hours

Lol. Bad geography on my part. Outer band near front royal is pulling east now. What am amazing and extremely localized storm

Moco is getting raked. Radar looks like yellow french fries

Outer band in wv panhandle is moving east now. Turn has begun and slp off the coast is pulling away. Normally i'd say expect radar to fall apart over the next 2 hours but all bets are off on this one. This storm already broke all the rules. Why stop now?

Brings up a good question... what is DCA reporting now?

I left one out... roads caved TWICE lol

This storm broke a lot of mid atlantic rules of thumb Onset earlier than forecast Virga was minimal Models kept get better through and after onset Snowfall was unusually evenly distributed There was no parrs deathband (i feel bad for psu) Nova and DCA are jackpotting Warm air advection overperformed Upper level low qpf is higher than forecast Shutoff is later than forecast Start to finish will span 30 hours Let all that sink in for a minute...

Damn Matt, i was fully prepared to call it a wrap when it waa shut off. 6.5" was already great. Adding 2.5" and counting with this last batch is off the chain.