Picard
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Looks like a bit of excitement coming through PA if it holds together.
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The rain finally developed far enough east to put us under a steady heavier rain for several hours. We were closing in on an inch before I left and it was still raining pretty good. It looks like we might dry slot, maybe scattered lighter showers after 10 AM or so. But I think we've already reached at least the low side of the predictions, and the water for the plants is welcome.
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That's fine, but recent forecasts haven't really been reflective of that fact.
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So, earlier, NWS Mount Holly dropped maps on X showing amounts up to 3" over North Jersey. I replied with my skepticism, similar to what I did here. And their account replied to me with the following: "We have been missing out on better rainfall recently, but chances are looking better for a soaking rain tonight and tomorrow, at least from around I-95 and northwest".
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Possibly nowhere for some. It all depends on where the storms pop up and any banding might set up. These are tricky forecasts and modeling hasn't been great. I'd be skeptical of calls for area-wide 2" the next couple of days, but that's just my non-expert opinion. Storms are firing off in their favorite spots out to the N and W. For now that's where they'll stay - they could sneak a little further into the area later on. We'll see.
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I remain skeptical of calls for a wetter pattern. While I agree that there are things that may point to it, often times we see much of the precipitation off to the north and west or hook around and out of the area entirely. This has been a trend for month after month now. The latest drought monitor is out, which shows modest improvements in the more severe drought areas for NJ, but much of the more pronounced improvements in the northeast are all over central PA as well as central and western NY State.
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Wow on radar. Just not here. I wonder what the totals will be from those storms over northern PA.
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Interesting setup. You're in the monsoon and then some if the banding sets up over you. I'm still at 0.8" total for the wet stretch. We'll see if anything sets up this afternoon. If the sun were to break through, that could be entertainment for someone.
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It looked like a training effect was setting up on radar earlier for that area. I figured they must've gotten heavier amounts. When we do get thunderstorms into this area, the very top of NJ seems to do well. I've lived in Sparta for 5 years, and it's a regular occurance to be able to watch storms off our northwest facing deck, as they train along the top of NJ and into Orange County. I can often hear distant rumbles of thunder and the clouds are always an awesome sight. It's less common for storms to miss to the south. Is there anything to the geography of the area that causes this to happen? I'd love to see average rainfall over the past few years from Port Jervis, NY vs Sparta NJ, especially during thunderstorm season.
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0.35" overnight from the 11 PM storm. Decent lightening and thunder and a brief power outage. Looks like we might get clipped by some more later, as the radar appears to be on the right trajectory, but as someone else pointed out, getting in on the rains is a little like playing the lottery.
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Hopefully folks didn't cancel outdoor plans based on earlier forecasts that didn't materialize. I watched that line skip north like many others in recent memory - looked like a nice line. We'll see if more pops up later. Otherwise, north will continue to rule the day.
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So it goes as with most of the storms here. I'm left wondering if we'll get much of anything the next few days. The latest drought monitor continues to show the same persistent trends nearly perfectly, in that the precip hits a wall about 2/3 of the way across PA and NY state. Look what happened with last weeks line, shredded to nothing once it passed state college. It's interesting how parts of NY state and New England have had persistent rain and snow these past months, and have run normal or above in the precipitation category. These same trends can be seen on soil moisture maps too. Bottom Line: don't cancel any outdoor plans. You might be fine.
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Holy Shibt! That's a lot of rain potential. We could use it, or even half of it. The kids have field day tomorrow, hopefully the weather holds long enough to get that in. Sounds like it should.
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Well, when you have a consistent pattern of many storms staying well north and west of the area, combined with high winds and low humidity, yes. And this will only get worse as we head further into spring or summer, unless we have a consistent pattern change or get lucky with a couple of super soaker events.
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I could see that, with the fading sunlight and moving into drier air. Be nice to get some showers out of it though. Wouldn't be a bad thing.
