EstorilM

Yeah, I was a bit surprised this morning as well. Even LWX was saying 5-10 eventually - though in all fairness, if I pick up another 2.5" this afternoon, I'll probably be at 6-7". I suppose they hit lol. Areas to the south really did perform better - I don't know if it was the dry air (LWX got that wrong, onset was about 2-3hr later than expected for me) for areas north, or what.. either way, it seems to jive better with what the Euro was showing.

Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread. I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still.

Oops. Nah I kinda figured most would be distracted by the current system lol. Plus I read this page and everyone seemed very "blah" - watched a YT guy go through some of the models (must have been a different suite) and it looked like a SW to NE line that was way more coastal and missed the big areas in/around DC.

Kinda bizarre to hear the usually-conservative WTOP and other mets actually mentioning this storm so "far out" when nothing impressive has really been shown on the models yet. Even more bizarre that no one in here is posting maps, AND there isn't a thread for the potential event.

Heyyyyy, that guy single-handedly won us a game against the Giants a few weeks ago and set a franchise record with SEVEN FIELD GOALS. That kicker literally scored every point in the game - and we won lmao. ....now as for what happened yesterday, that's completely beyond me. Cue the John Travolta "wtf" meme with his hands up in total confusion. That was me for the entire game. ----- Anyways, what's it looking like for temps Friday onward? I have a travel trailer/RV that a friend needs, which isn't winterized... it has the arctic package but that requires almost constant use of the propane furnace. I put a few remote sensors in the utility/plumbing area for my PWS WS-2000 so I can view temps inside there, but I'm probably going to have to figure out something creative to prevent the plumbing from freezing. I'm in a kinda strange area on the backside of a small mountain in NoVA - it's consistently 8 degrees colder than forecast. Last night low was supposed to be 35, trailer was 27 this AM. If they're forecasting 19 next weekend/week, that thing is in trouble lol.

I'm surprised no one posted last weeks drought monitor update - 90% of VA is now in moderate-to-severe drought. That was last week's update, I believe the latest update should have already been posted, but hopefully it'll go up this afternoon. I'd expect the band running along 81 through Loudoun County that was "severe" last update, to become "extreme" - though one farm I have a PWS at received 1.2" in 30 minutes!!! (I believe 4th of July evening?) I live 5 miles away and got nothing more than a sprinkle, didn't even show up on my PWS there. EDIT: WOW, I just checked Goose Creek's flow rate, and it's 0.00 as of 5:30AM this morning! Median is 35 CFS, the entire 1-week scale for the chart only goes up to 2.5 CFS.

Does anyone have a target ETA for the snow squalls tomorrow in northern VA / Loudoun Co? LWX has it narrowed down to a 5hr window (lol) so that doesn’t really help - I think the short range models have it pretty much nailed down, but I can’t find the post now.

1.39" a bit south of Chantilly so far, had a heavy band about 45 min ago but it looks like radar is clearing out a bit. Bracing ourselves for the wind next.

Cooler than I thought this evening - my two PWS showing 27.1 in Catharpin (prince william co.) and 25.7 in Middleburg (Loudoun). Lows were forecast to be 28.

Hmmm an inch of sleet for PW County/SW Loudoun. Not sure I buy that, but I suppose it’s more entertaining than rain.

Trend has been warmer, faster, lower QPF, and NW - granted some of those are directly related, but still kinda a sucker punch for most of us.

Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there.

Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region. Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth.

Sterling WFO seems to have thrown in the towel. Given that it’s Thursday, I don’t think you can say they “got it wrong” - but certainly a very different forecast than a few days ago. “…. P-type is likely to start as light snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I- 95. However, most models have trended warmer in the low-levels east of the Blue Ridge, especially with the 850mb being at or above freezing east of US-15. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to start, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks very low at this time.”

Wasn’t the euro saying “warmer, faster, and NW” like 4-5 days ago, when we kept calling it an outlier?

Wow this seemed like a lock for Northern VA, then again people always say you never want to be in the bullseye ~5 days out - all it can do is “trend” away from you lol.

Same here in Catharpin, you’re probably a few miles away from me lol.

1.7” Saturday and 1.11” so far since midnight - should easily break 3” which was a good bit above most models for Northern Virginia. Wind is a different story, we were under a wind advisory and models had ~35-40 mph gusts. Peak gust yesterday was 20.6 mph.

Temps dropped almost 10 degrees since 7AM (down to about 34) - aaaaand simultaneously, the last of the precip shield looks to have cleared my area. So yeah, still haven't seen that snow flake yet for this season yet.

It wasn't that funny It's kinda entertaining when the forecasters at NWS occasionally remind us that they aren't robots lol.

I almost fell asleep reading this thread a day or so ago... I suppose 7 days out isn't really "extreme" or anything, but I definitely don't trust it.