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EstorilM

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  1. EstorilM
    Looks like weather.us …also, wouldn’t this be up there with some of the most powerful strikes ever recorded? At least around here? Average is like 30kA right? I did NOT think there were any unique atmospheric variables at play last night.
  2. EstorilM
    Wow what a night (unexpected!) I shall dub the mystery bolt as the “Brunswick Boomer!” Both my weather stations with lightning detection picked it up, somehow with fairly accurate distances too (10mi from my Middleburg station near goose creek, 16mi from my Catharpin station towards Manassas.) Then I was woken up again to lots of lightning and thunder as the training storms eventually aligned with me, and I got that impressive cell for a good 10 minutes (peaked out at just under 1”/hr .3 total, nothing too wild. These were some pretty impactful storms, especially the training action. There wasn’t so much as a single peep about any of this in the forecast discussion from LWX, just the showers earlier with the fropa around the evening commute. What an exactly happened from a meteorological perspective? Aren’t things usually pretty dry and stable hours after a front has passed?
  3. EstorilM
    That looks absolutely stunning on the high res velocity playback. I was watching that area as the gust front propagated out and triggered this - all happened very quickly.
  4. EstorilM
    Wow I just can’t catch a break today. The portion of this line that was going to hit me seems to have collapsed right as it got here, with a pronounced outflow boundary followed by almost instantly triggering a pretty serious new chunk in its wake (after it was long past me.) Immediately got a severe tstorm warning too.
  5. EstorilM
    Well they just dropped the tornado watch for most of us.
  6. EstorilM
    I get that vibe as well - I just can't imagine this second round doing much with the conditions I'm looking at through the window. Isn't this pretty much exactly what the high res guidance was showing late last night?
  7. EstorilM
    Greenage
  8. EstorilM
    Wow just got hit with a tornado warning, basically going straight into Sterling LWX office.
  9. EstorilM
    SPC just issued a new MD for 60% tornado watch issuance for a lot of us. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0269.html
  10. EstorilM
    There’s kinda a separate northern element to that part of the line going into Culpeper, I think that misses most of NoVA to the northwest
  11. EstorilM
    My three PWS (Middleburg, Leesburg, Manassas) are 66.2/63.5, 66/63.6, 65.8/62.8. That's kinda wild that all three's temp/dp are within a single degree.
  12. EstorilM
    They'll be waiting for a bit - if you look at the SPC MD's you can get a better idea - its still too far south for LWX to get into the action. It's possible within the hour or so I'd guess.
  13. EstorilM
    Exactly what I've been thinking, we've got a ton of shear, plenty of lift, and good moisture - we've seen plenty of historically significant weather events / tornadoes triggered by strong frontal systems with less than 1000j/kg (sometimes much less, initiation after dark, etc.)
  14. EstorilM
    lol that's exactly what I just told someone at work (re 9-10am we'll get a "feel" for the day so-to-speak.) Then again, there are still a LOT of ingredients at play here beyond cape. Mets seem to think there's sufficient lifting, so we may not be too dependent on daytime heating. It'll still be an interesting day regardless... and it looks like those winds will almost certainly mix down either way as well.
  15. EstorilM
    Yeah I'd much rather trade that in for two rounds lol - I think that first round might really ruin things for us, but who knows. My primary PWS in Middleburg is already 64 deg w/ DP of 62.8.
  16. EstorilM
    Just got into work (across from Sterling WFO) and it actually appears that this low cloud deck is rapidly thinning out behind the earlier showers. That line of showers wasn’t very dense and didn’t really fill in, at least where I live. I’m actually feeling a little better about this vs late last night when the high res models started the bust scenario.
  17. EstorilM
    I’ve got a decent setup in my truck, but this thing is going to be moving so fast - the terrain / congestion and roads around northern VA make it almost impossible to follow something like this. If there’s a specific portion of the line that’s repeatedly tornado-warned or has a decent velocity couplet, I might try to position myself in that general area… but I don’t think I’ll be “chasing” anything really. Might not even matter as I can’t get out of work early regardless.
  18. EstorilM
    Good point - that was such an unusual day, I remember following the line from the moment I woke up, all the way through the work day, then that evening when it actually arrived.
  19. EstorilM
    Yeah, but relatively speaking (for this scenario, and climatologically) this is plenty CAPE, probably 750-1000. Don’t really need the CAPE when you’ve got so much else going for you, so not a typical HSLC setup where that would be a limiting factor.
  20. EstorilM
    I have a weird vibe about this one… going to be a wild day tomorrow. Wish I had my ham license but it’ll definitely be a Skywarn / spotter network day (I still have all the radios, just can’t really [legally] transmit lol.)
  21. EstorilM
    We already took the medals from them, can we just kinda... take their cold air as well? I guess the time to ask would have been yesterday lol.
  22. EstorilM
    I guess it depends when they measured, I work within walking distance to Sterling NWS/LWX and passed it this morning at 7am - I'd say closer to 1-1.5" but I guess that's kinda splitting hairs.
  23. EstorilM
    Yup, I definitely said "no way" on what, Friday? Not a chance it meets criteria - advisory seemed appropriate factoring in temps. I mean the MODELS showed 5-8" of snow possibly falling out of the sky, but we've been through this a million times. The only element of this storm that surprised me (for my area) was just how many of the mets seemed to buy into the model hype without taking a step back for a moment. Then again, you get into even a 2 degree difference and I guess it's a slightly different story, but ground temps were warm too - AND that band never really set up through northern-western Loudoun regardless, so I don't think we even had the QPF there after the 3-4pm (brief) thump; that was the end of the real event for me (which was not how it was supposed to play out, nor what the WSW had either.)
  24. EstorilM
    Got an inch south of Leesburg - marginal temps in a storm like this will always disappoint. I'm kinda impressed LWX bit onto the models too and had like 5-8 here lol.
  25. EstorilM
    Hmm, got down to about 35 an hour ago, now up to 36.9!
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