EstorilM

Hopefully, I remember the old ST posts lol.

I know, I just meant vs this evening. I was over on accuwx forums for like 15yr, sucks being a newbie w/ no posts/history on here.

Seems a bit early for OBS but who knows. I am happy to report that I just drove by LWX on the way to lunch a minute ago and the radar looks to be all buttoned up, and appears functional again on the apps. They got that knocked out relatively fast for a pedestal issue - their notes said they were hoping for late afternoon, and it's been up for at least an hour.

Great point, especially with a storm where mixing and temp profiles are going to cause some crazy gradients - absolutely none of that favors DCA over JYO. Still, I'm getting bustola vibes with this thing big time, the way the models are wavering with the mixing line is telling me they're kinda catching on to changeover. The snow maps don't really tell the entire story, this is the SREF from earlier (at IAD / Dulles) - would absolutely crush anything that's accumulated.

I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting. I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning. Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event.

The temp profiles have me worried, even if a big thump is overnight... going to be very different than the 1/6 event unfortunately. The p-type maps are kinda a mess. I think it'll be one of those things where you might get that total SNOWFALL amount, but it's not going to be accumulated. 26 for a low tonight might help prime surfaces decently for tomorrow though.

Well damn, SREF plume mean is actually 5.6" for IAD. P-type is a mess though, and WAY more rain than I expected for Loudoun, hmm.

What does the p-type / ice output look like for the event?

LWX playing it safe, same totals from F'burg to Winchester. I'd expect a pretty decent gradient between those locations, but then again southern locations will get more QPF w/ more melting also I suppose. I wonder if they'll throw out the WSW's for these areas for the ~1030AM forecast cycle or wait for the afternoon folks? I guess that's probably cutting it too close... ALSO LWX's doppler radar has been down for a couple days now (pedestal issues, so kinda a big deal) - they hope to get it fixed by this evening, but yikes, that'll be less than 24hr before precip onset in the area. It goes without saying that LWX's radar coverage is CRUCIAL for the entire NoVA / DC / Bmore area.

LOL I used to live off that road, closer to the beltway though. Miss the old Arby's (that was totally out of place) in town. They haven't run the brine trucks out here yet in Loudoun (by me anyways) but I'm sure they're starting to. I'm kinda worried about temps for this one, I'm north of the jackpot zone, but I think accumulation-wise (by sunset or so) areas north of the jackpot might be about even by that point. I live near a creek bed / valley and it's typically 5-10 degrees below fcst for that area and other spots locally, so I'm hoping it piles up tomorrow.

It’s still just bizarre to me that I’m on a nation-wide forum (granted in a regional sub) and a meme pops up like this. I’m in Middleburg, basically a few minutes between Leesburg and Aldie off 15 lol. Also, I guess I missed some drama between the 12z and 18z??

Don't sleep on the Commanders and JD5 - you're probably the better team, but that doesn't seem to phase us when the chips are down!

I forgot to post something about this at the time, but I woke up to 7.3 degrees at my PWS Thursday morning. I swear the forecast was something like 18 for my area - I'm generally up to 8 degrees colder than surrounding areas, but that really surprised me. This upcoming cold is going to be absolutely brutal. I was wondering if I might see my first negative temps (at least since I can remember as a kid) but that seems almost guaranteed now, at least mon night/tue morning.

Yeah, I was a bit surprised this morning as well. Even LWX was saying 5-10 eventually - though in all fairness, if I pick up another 2.5" this afternoon, I'll probably be at 6-7". I suppose they hit lol. Areas to the south really did perform better - I don't know if it was the dry air (LWX got that wrong, onset was about 2-3hr later than expected for me) for areas north, or what.. either way, it seems to jive better with what the Euro was showing.

Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread. I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still.

Oops. Nah I kinda figured most would be distracted by the current system lol. Plus I read this page and everyone seemed very "blah" - watched a YT guy go through some of the models (must have been a different suite) and it looked like a SW to NE line that was way more coastal and missed the big areas in/around DC.

Kinda bizarre to hear the usually-conservative WTOP and other mets actually mentioning this storm so "far out" when nothing impressive has really been shown on the models yet. Even more bizarre that no one in here is posting maps, AND there isn't a thread for the potential event.

Heyyyyy, that guy single-handedly won us a game against the Giants a few weeks ago and set a franchise record with SEVEN FIELD GOALS. That kicker literally scored every point in the game - and we won lmao. ....now as for what happened yesterday, that's completely beyond me. Cue the John Travolta "wtf" meme with his hands up in total confusion. That was me for the entire game. ----- Anyways, what's it looking like for temps Friday onward? I have a travel trailer/RV that a friend needs, which isn't winterized... it has the arctic package but that requires almost constant use of the propane furnace. I put a few remote sensors in the utility/plumbing area for my PWS WS-2000 so I can view temps inside there, but I'm probably going to have to figure out something creative to prevent the plumbing from freezing. I'm in a kinda strange area on the backside of a small mountain in NoVA - it's consistently 8 degrees colder than forecast. Last night low was supposed to be 35, trailer was 27 this AM. If they're forecasting 19 next weekend/week, that thing is in trouble lol.

I'm surprised no one posted last weeks drought monitor update - 90% of VA is now in moderate-to-severe drought. That was last week's update, I believe the latest update should have already been posted, but hopefully it'll go up this afternoon. I'd expect the band running along 81 through Loudoun County that was "severe" last update, to become "extreme" - though one farm I have a PWS at received 1.2" in 30 minutes!!! (I believe 4th of July evening?) I live 5 miles away and got nothing more than a sprinkle, didn't even show up on my PWS there. EDIT: WOW, I just checked Goose Creek's flow rate, and it's 0.00 as of 5:30AM this morning! Median is 35 CFS, the entire 1-week scale for the chart only goes up to 2.5 CFS.

Does anyone have a target ETA for the snow squalls tomorrow in northern VA / Loudoun Co? LWX has it narrowed down to a 5hr window (lol) so that doesn’t really help - I think the short range models have it pretty much nailed down, but I can’t find the post now.

1.39" a bit south of Chantilly so far, had a heavy band about 45 min ago but it looks like radar is clearing out a bit. Bracing ourselves for the wind next.

Cooler than I thought this evening - my two PWS showing 27.1 in Catharpin (prince william co.) and 25.7 in Middleburg (Loudoun). Lows were forecast to be 28.

Hmmm an inch of sleet for PW County/SW Loudoun. Not sure I buy that, but I suppose it’s more entertaining than rain.

Trend has been warmer, faster, lower QPF, and NW - granted some of those are directly related, but still kinda a sucker punch for most of us.

Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there.