EstorilM

Temps dropped 1.5 degrees in about 25 min, south winds up a bit too (7g15) - sideways flurries filling in a bit.

Flurries in Middleburg / western Loudoun, looks like it’s filling in pretty quick on radar the last 30 min (the “virga zone” between Winchester/Front Royal and Loudoun.) edit: Yup mountains starting to disappear

Haha 106.7 (sports talk radio around here) just asked listeners to call in when it starts snowing in their area. I’ll let you know if I hear anything lol. 34.2/20.2 here

I’m not too worried about temps (though I don’t expect anything to stick for a while, up to 35 now.) DPs are still below 20 here though, that’ll definitely take a while to erode away.

Funny guy lol. I'm usually overly optimistic, I just never saw the stars lining up for this one (especially after the 12z stuff yesterday, shrinking/southward precip shield, mixing and rain post-snow, etc.) I am a bit jealous of the RIC-Fburg guys though.

Not panicking, but I’m pretty sure the 06z NAM had precip overspreading the area by 11am - we aren’t even remotely close to that. WSW is for 1 so yeah, I’d assume a bit after that. Still, it’s DRY here - which is ironic because people were saying we wouldn’t have the virga issues we had on 1/6 lol.

That stuff has been hitting a brick wall between 81 and Winchester all morning, nothing makes it east of there. It’s STILL 53% humidity here in western Loudoun just east of the mountains.

32.0 in Middleburg. Have a clean LoS to Mt Weather and don’t see anything obscuring the mountains so… lots of filling in to do. As usual, not much is making it across I-81 and if it does, it’s gone by the time it moves west. DP 18 and humidity has dropped to 58%. Yikes.

27.9 at my PWS just south of Leesburg, granted I’m in a valley and it’s usually colder. Still, forecast low was 28 so… temps tonight might help onset precip a lot tomorrow.

And I will personally fund it lol.

I'm worried that was the typical juicy NAM run though, everything else seems to be saying otherwise with the latest suite.

Eh I'm mostly a lurker, but occasionally I'll see notice something interesting and contribute lol. I like it here, only thing missing is Snobol saying every storm will suck.

Hopefully, I remember the old ST posts lol.

I know, I just meant vs this evening. I was over on accuwx forums for like 15yr, sucks being a newbie w/ no posts/history on here.

Seems a bit early for OBS but who knows. I am happy to report that I just drove by LWX on the way to lunch a minute ago and the radar looks to be all buttoned up, and appears functional again on the apps. They got that knocked out relatively fast for a pedestal issue - their notes said they were hoping for late afternoon, and it's been up for at least an hour.

Great point, especially with a storm where mixing and temp profiles are going to cause some crazy gradients - absolutely none of that favors DCA over JYO. Still, I'm getting bustola vibes with this thing big time, the way the models are wavering with the mixing line is telling me they're kinda catching on to changeover. The snow maps don't really tell the entire story, this is the SREF from earlier (at IAD / Dulles) - would absolutely crush anything that's accumulated.

I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting. I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning. Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event.

The temp profiles have me worried, even if a big thump is overnight... going to be very different than the 1/6 event unfortunately. The p-type maps are kinda a mess. I think it'll be one of those things where you might get that total SNOWFALL amount, but it's not going to be accumulated. 26 for a low tonight might help prime surfaces decently for tomorrow though.

Well damn, SREF plume mean is actually 5.6" for IAD. P-type is a mess though, and WAY more rain than I expected for Loudoun, hmm.

What does the p-type / ice output look like for the event?

LWX playing it safe, same totals from F'burg to Winchester. I'd expect a pretty decent gradient between those locations, but then again southern locations will get more QPF w/ more melting also I suppose. I wonder if they'll throw out the WSW's for these areas for the ~1030AM forecast cycle or wait for the afternoon folks? I guess that's probably cutting it too close... ALSO LWX's doppler radar has been down for a couple days now (pedestal issues, so kinda a big deal) - they hope to get it fixed by this evening, but yikes, that'll be less than 24hr before precip onset in the area. It goes without saying that LWX's radar coverage is CRUCIAL for the entire NoVA / DC / Bmore area.

LOL I used to live off that road, closer to the beltway though. Miss the old Arby's (that was totally out of place) in town. They haven't run the brine trucks out here yet in Loudoun (by me anyways) but I'm sure they're starting to. I'm kinda worried about temps for this one, I'm north of the jackpot zone, but I think accumulation-wise (by sunset or so) areas north of the jackpot might be about even by that point. I live near a creek bed / valley and it's typically 5-10 degrees below fcst for that area and other spots locally, so I'm hoping it piles up tomorrow.

It’s still just bizarre to me that I’m on a nation-wide forum (granted in a regional sub) and a meme pops up like this. I’m in Middleburg, basically a few minutes between Leesburg and Aldie off 15 lol. Also, I guess I missed some drama between the 12z and 18z??

Don't sleep on the Commanders and JD5 - you're probably the better team, but that doesn't seem to phase us when the chips are down!

I forgot to post something about this at the time, but I woke up to 7.3 degrees at my PWS Thursday morning. I swear the forecast was something like 18 for my area - I'm generally up to 8 degrees colder than surrounding areas, but that really surprised me. This upcoming cold is going to be absolutely brutal. I was wondering if I might see my first negative temps (at least since I can remember as a kid) but that seems almost guaranteed now, at least mon night/tue morning.