Yardstickgozinya

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/last-ef5-tornado-united-states-record-longest-span

I saw a few flakes last night . The trick William Potter is not minding that it hurts.

Yikes!!! Not looking good. I'm thinking someone will end up upgraded to high risk by Friday. Speaking of 2011, I'm staring to see a reminiscent early spring pattern. If these systems can continue to bring good energy this far east so early in the spring I think it will tell us a lot storm wise as we move forward into warmer climo. Day 7 is also showing potential for something big. Maybe the trade off for no snow will be some kick ass spring light shows. Mar 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Mar 30 05:57:47 UTC 2023 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Tornado Wind Hail Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area MODERATE 44,279 3,704,720 Memphis, TN...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...Jonesboro, AR... ENHANCED 175,248 14,076,681 Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Aurora, IL... SLIGHT 187,977 31,474,477 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY... MARGINAL 155,983 18,555,370 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Plano, TX... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 300557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A bi-modal regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale upper trough will be oriented from the northern plains to the southern Rockies early Friday. The trough will continue to deepen as it shifts east toward the MS Valley by 00z, and oriented from the upper Great Lakes to the TN Valley vicinity by Saturday morning. With time, a closed low is expected to develop over eastern SD/NE/IA and a 100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. Intense southwesterly low-level flow also will overspread the Mid-South through much of the Midwest, with an 850 mb jet around 65-80 kt forecast by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a deepening low centered over eastern NE/western IA Friday morning will shift east across IA through the afternoon before lifting toward southern Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front will extend from the low into eastern KS/central OK/west-central TX at 12z, and shift east across much of the Midwest and Mid-South. Ahead of the eastward-advancing front, strong southerly flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. Near-60 F dewpoints are expected as far north as eastern IA into northern IL during the afternoon. The warm sector will become more narrow/pinched off with north and east extent toward the Ohio Valley during the evening/overnight hours. However, near 60 F dewpoints are still expected in a narrow corridor ahead of the surging cold front into far southern IN and central KY. Richer boundary-layer moisture will reside from the Mid-South into the Lower-MS/TN Valleys where low to mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... The strongest forcing/DCVA will be located over northern portions of the Mid-MS Valley close to the surface low/triple point. The expectation is that rapid destabilization through the morning (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) and arrival of stronger forcing by early afternoon will result in initial supercell development near the surface low. All severe hazards will be possible with these fast moving storms, including a couple of strong tornadoes, intense damaging gusts and large hail. Cellular activity should spread across eastern IA/northern MO and into northwest IL before tendency toward upscale growth into linear convection ensues with eastward extent as convection develops south and east ahead of the front from east-central MO into northern/central IL. Damaging gusts will become more prominent with linear convection, though QLCS tornadoes will also be possible. Additional storms will likely form near/just north of the warm front and move into parts of far southeast MN and southern WI. This activity should remain elevated, posing a risk for large hail and strong gusts, though any cell rooting on the warm front will pose a tornado risk as well, though the better warm sector is expected to remain south of MN/WI. ...Mid-South Vicinity... A concerning scenario appears to be developing across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... Low-level moisture/instability will begin to wane with north and east extent into the nighttime hours. However forecast guidance has consistently shown a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE with little/no inhibition. Forecast guidance generally tends to under-forecast north/east extent of severe potential in strongly forced, intense shear system. As such, the ongoing outlook maintains a broad gradient from Enhanced to Slight risk across this region. Damaging gusts and a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 03/30/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0746Z (3:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

I added the oil info because find that most run regular small engine oil in there snow blowers and wounder why it will only throw snow a few feet even with new scraper blades. If the viscosity is too low you can lose 20%-50% torque because all your compression can exit piston cylinder, and or valves. If viscosity is too high and its cold out it will be hard starting and can damage gaskets. When it comes to snowblowers use exactly what the manual says. If it cant be found order it.

I always appreciate your posts Mr. Snowman . I hope my post didn't come across as a lecture towards you. Just giving my own many experiences with graupel . I will be sure to post pics and vids in the future that will leave experienced meso hounds scratching their heads and questioning what and when is possible as far as graupel or some kind of rounded perlite looking ice pellet is concerned in my area.

I don't know if anyone remembers the nocturnal storm that formed and collapsed over Hershey in 2011. It was a rouge storm on a clear night with by far the most powerful strokes of lightning I have ever seen in my life. Even here in New Cumberland the earth shook with every stroke. 2011 was the shit minus all the death and destruction

I think this was the same system that produced the Joplin EF5 on the 22 if I remember correctly . Could be wrong about that but I defiantly remember a tornadic storm around this date. It was a weird cell in that it was very elongated and liner looking but it was one cell with two inflow notches . If I have the right storm it also produced several funnel clouds. I was working in Etters that day the bark was much worse than the bite out there.

Grauple is a lot more common then people think ,and absolutely happens in warmer environments than today . I cant count the times I have seen it at the very beginning of rain events even if it only last 30 seconds, especially at night. Not surprised at all here given the temps.I know for a fact It can happen in any season because I have seen it many times in every season.

Same as any other small engine, the gaskets can dry out and become damaged if its sits to long . If there is gas in it change it out and run it for a few mins twice a year. Its more important than other small engines to use the right oil in snowblowers. Because they will always be operated in low temps there is more gap clearance between piston and cylinder so you will lose alot of compression if the oil is wrong.

Don't let some of the guys her fool you , Sometimes we get into simple patterns that make the models look like they are ok, but its not the models working out its the simple pattern . Unfortunately computer models cant handle any dynamics lol.

I think what you will find over time is that there are no legit weather models for this area of the US at any range, just people that cant or don't want remember yesterday.

Unfortunately making people think the next hecs is just right around the corner has become a profitable business for enough people and agency's now that the next hecs will always be 8-14 days out.

I would be very wary of youtube weather forecasters . They need you to click and comeback and they know who to trigger that reaction in guys like us.

Calling Dr. Kevorkian, Calling Dr. Kevorkian Euthanasia needed in room 2023

Unless there's a retrograde,climb back up the Chesapeake, re tuck, and stall at 222 eh , Its just not good enough unless it dose le loop de loop eh.

Day 4 30% severe weather probability already introduced . Not looking good unless you chase for a living. Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 27, 2023 Updated: Mon Feb 27 10:02:03 UTC 2023 D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point. Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area 30 % 127,091 6,597,282 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...Tuscaloosa, AL...Longview, TX... 15 % 161,434 25,644,954 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA... D4 Thu, Mar 02, 2023 - Fri, Mar 03, 2023 D7 Sun, Mar 05, 2023 - Mon, Mar 06, 2023 D5 Fri, Mar 03, 2023 - Sat, Mar 04, 2023 D8 Mon, Mar 06, 2023 - Tue, Mar 07, 2023 D6 Sat, Mar 04, 2023 - Sun, Mar 05, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity. POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day. Forecast Discussion ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4... A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week, respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night. ...Friday/Day 5... Severe-weather potential is expected to continue to Friday across the Southeast States including Georgia/north Florida and the Carolinas, and possibly as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic. This will be as the upper-level trough races northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic States. Very strong deep-layer winds will coincide with a modestly unstable warm sector ahead of a cold front and/or residual convection from Thursday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes could occur across the region.

Mostly all snow here Atm for the first time tonight . Light coating of shit crap in grass and mulch

I cant wait to make fun of the no snow Joe's when its snowing the next few weeks. I looked in my worm bins and it just so happened Pennsatucky Bill was 2 inches deep. That,s a whole 1 " deeper than I have ever been on a good day.

I got the feeling it time to check the worm bins.

Now that that I got my wake n bake in its 37°f, and Its a great day to be alive.

44 and severely depressed.

Yep, I read front page in the paper the other day its been so bad all the main weather foresting agencies are now printing there long and medium range maps on toilet paper, so they can actually use there forecasts again. I here all the extra green on the maps this year is actually just too much free government grape juice.

I apologize. I did mean to say could be under the gun for severe . No conducive parameters close to home as of yet. Didn't mean to give the impression I feel its immanent , although the slight risk for day 6 did expand north and west overnight but still has a way to go to affect cpa.