Yardstickgozinya

The smoke really moved in thick over night. I have never seen or smelled wild fire smoke like this . Visibility and air quality was way down from 10:00PM until 2:00AM. Conditions then improved for a few hours,but around 4:30AM viability, and air quality appear, and smell to be deteriorating again.

We had some hail stones up to quarter size here in Fairview township. Miner damage to cars, and roofs. Enjoy the smokey skies the next few days, and pray for storms.

@mahantango#1After The soil has been dry for 3 to 4 days, If you want send me 1/2 cup of soil to 200 Tall Oak dr. New Cumberland Pa. 17070 . No need for a return address I will message you the results.

I have personally never had stratification issues from bulbs but I guess its possible seeing it was a very warm winter. How did the bulbs do that where there for 5 years ? You should check the soils electrical conductivity and Ph to make sure its in range for what you are growing. If you would like to send me a soil sample I have a professional Ec and ph meter. You can get meters for under $50.00 but there not that accurate. I have a blue lab ec/ph combo meter that I calibrate every few weeks.

It was to much to fast here but I am still getting light rain out my way. I would think I am at 1" inch here easy. The big Cats will be biting in the creeks tonight out my way. Going to watch hydrology and probably head out on my kayak and get them sob's at the crack of dawn.

I was not thinking severe . Just a few rumbles and some rain would be nice atp. Thanks Bubbler.

Any new organic gardeners in here not familiar with nutrient lockout I suggest you look it up. Often confused with nutrient burn but unlike burn it can, and needs to be fixed with calcium flushings or it will continue.

@mahantango#1 I believe you made a post a few weeks ago about bulbs you planted that did not have healthy looking vegetative growth this season . That's not uncommon at all. Last year was not a great year to establish roots depending on when you planted them. You did nothing wrong they will look better next year. A lot of plant grown from bulbs don't have high nutrient requirements so don't over feed trying to push them to health, you could lock them out or worse burn them.

@Bubbler86 seeing anything wet or interesting for later today or tonight . I see some week northeast moving instability popping up in southeastern Pa extending back my way in a capped environment . Still plenty of time to destabilize but not much around to tap into it yet, but heights are falling I think lol. Need some work in that department yet.

Still looking pretty nuts with some new cells initiating down there

The first cell approaching farmville Va looks very suspicious. But all those storms seam like they mean business atp

Yes the storms in Va are getting nasty fast. One storm just had one hell of a hail core on it. Several have taken super cell form . I got to get back to work . Have a great day .

I couldn't find soundings close to the area of 3000j/kg but the closest station has some veering at around 3km.

missed Va with 3000j/kg looking at Delaware.

Southern Delawere and Md are looking ripe again yet today. Yesterday they had surface cape of nearly 2000j/kg but nothing around to tap the energy. Today is a different story 1000-2000j/kg at the surface atm with a breaking cap. The good news is the winds are not turning with height nearly as much as the other day. They do seam primed for downdrafts if I'm reading meso downdraft map correctly .

I was hoping to get to see a little more lightning than I got tonight . Seems like I did a little better then some. Probably got a little less than 1/4" of rain and maybe 20-25 strikes within earshot. Any nocturnal storm before may is always a win in my book ,and I have had several in the last few weeks .

I had no Idea storm chaser Joel Taylor died of an overdose in 2018. I always suspected Reed timmers and crew where on cocaine or stimulants of some kind in the early years. Reed was always tweeked as shit you could see it in his eyes, hear it in his voice an he was always sweating at his temples. Taylor, 38, had a fatal mix of drugs in his system, according to a toxicology report by the Institute of Forensic Sciences of Puerto Rico in January which was obtained on Friday.MDMA (also known as ecstasy) along with Zolpidem (a version of Ambien), ketamine (an anesthetic) and MDA (a psychedelic amphetamine) were found in his system at the time of his death, according to the report

The storms in Mo and Ar are starting to form Hail Cores and finding better rotation but I have not seen a hook or ball yet tonight. Chasers are complaining about the radar down there so maybe I just cant see the hooks.

Just found some chasers on these storms. Apparently these are Radar indicated PDS warnings . No confirmed tornadoes on the ground .

The night started slow but two PDS tornado warnings have just went up at 3:30Am In Mo and AR

I really thought this would have warranted a high risk by the afternoon only because of timing. I sure hope the spc dose not regret not upgrading tomorrow morning. Better to cry wolf in this situation I would think. ...ArkLaTex into southern MO/IL Tonight... By early evening, forecast soundings from most 12z guidance shows that a broad area of high conditional risk of tornadic supercells will develop from eastern OK into much of AR and southern MO. This area will still be somewhat capped and the mechanisms for convective initiation are uncertain. However, a consensus of guidance shows multiple clusters of supercells forming across this area and persisting through the evening. Wind fields will strengthen throughout the night and capping will weaken, leading to a serious concern for nocturnal tornadoes over the southern MDT risk area in MO/AR. Again, model guidance provides confidence in the risk of widely scattered supercells throughout the night across the area, although details of location and timing are uncertain. Strong or even violent tornadoes are possible in this scenario

Sitting on her shoulders

I know I said the other day that youtube is a horrible place to get weather forecast. I have done a full 360 . Its the best place for a late nite weather forecast. What ever the hell she is saying is accurate enough as far as I'm concerned.

It kind of reminds me of the old weather Chanel form the 80's and 90's when they would just Highlight 1/3 the country for severe weather. Probably the largest area of ENH I have ever seen. Mod risk some where likely. Apr 4, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Apr 4 05:33:47 UTC 2023 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Tornado Wind Hail Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area ENHANCED 229,449 45,085,699 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN... SLIGHT 145,616 16,559,718 Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...Buffalo, NY...Rochester, NY... MARGINAL 176,731 22,545,333 Houston, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Madison, WI...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 040533 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms posing a risk for strong tornadoes and large hail are expected in a corridor across eastern Illinois through Lower Michigan Wednesday, with organizing clusters or lines of storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, across the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Within the more amplified branch of split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to migrate across and northeast of the Lake Superior vicinity before beginning to weaken Wednesday through Wednesday night. As this occurs, it appears that mid-level ridging centered along an axis across the Yucatan Peninsula into western Atlantic will remain a prominent influence across much of the Southeast, while short wave ridging also overspreads the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes. Models indicate a corridor of deepening boundary-layer moisture overspreading the Ozark Plateau and middle Mississippi Valley, into the Lake Michigan vicinity, by early Wednesday. This is forecast to spread across much of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, while the trailing flank of the front stalls across the lower Mississippi Valley into northwestern Gulf coastal plain, beneath the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridging. ...Illinois through lower Michigan... Beneath a dry slot overspreading the region, south and east of an intensifying cyclonic mid-level jet (in excess of 120 kt around 500 mb), surface heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates are expected to contribute to sufficient destabilization for intensifying supercells. This may commence in a pre-frontal corridor as early as mid Wednesday morning across parts of central into northeastern Illinois, before developing into/across Lower Michigan and parts of adjacent northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio through late afternoon. It remains unclear what effect the cooler marine layer from Lake Michigan has on adjacent coastal areas, particularly into portions of western Michigan. However, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, in particular, indicate a rather potent thermodynamic and kinematic environment supportive of strong tornadoes. This includes sizable CAPE, strong deep-layer shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. It is possible that severe weather probabilities could still be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Ohio Valley... To the south of the dry slot (within a plume of seasonably high precipitable water, and generally aligned with a belt of 40-70 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer), models indicate the potential for more widespread convection, organizing into clusters or lines while overspreading much of the Ohio Valley through the day. While lapse rates may not be particularly steep, given the strong flow, with at least modest CAPE and the increased potential for heavy precipitation loading and organizing convection, the environment probably will become conducive to damaging surface gusts, in addition to some risk for tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... South of the Ohio Valley, weakening low-level flow seems likely to result in more limited severe weather potential as the cold front gradually stalls. While a corridor of sizable pre-frontal CAPE beneath strong deep-layer shear may provide a window for strong/severe storm development, this may be limited as convection tends to train above congealing outflow and/or the front. ..Kerr.. 04/04/2023