Yardstickgozinya

Tuesday Day 5 Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday, necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front sweep across the area.

It got nasty out there last night while I was at my Colombia hole.. The Mayflies and the smoke were unbearable but my patients paid off. Sat out in this s*** all night last night, probably not the healthiest thing to do.

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner. That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday. This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

Has anyone heard any annual cicadas yet his year ? Last year was a very weak year for them in my area, and this year doesn't seem like it'll fare any better. I thought the rain would help some emerge, but still nothing.

According to last night's spc 4 AM update, some of the overlaps deterministic guidance was originally picking up on are in jeopardy. Timing issues.

If I never post again, it was the mosquitoes that got me.

There was so much grass and hydrilla uprooted from these last storms thet It's kind of a nightmare out there for a jet drive or fishing in certain areas.

Hopefully, it's all still sitting exactly where you put it.

Lightning's jumping around in the anville, far from any robust echoes.

Anyways, I think it's squash and watermelon, something in th cucurbits family hard to tell when i'm driving.

I was going to stop and snap some pictures out here in the Williams Grove area, because they grow several different types of produce, but the weather did not allow as I was driving through. Out here, the crops don't look too bad, but everything's irrigated. The corn on the edge of the fields that's not reached by the irrigation is stressed to the point where it will never produce a very viable crop. I'd imagine some of the unirrigated cornfields, look a lot like the edge of the cornfields out here in williams grove. Cabbage pumpkins, squash, watermelon all looks pretty decent out here.

Heavy rain

Srill just drizzle my nizzles.

I can smell the rain.dark clouds, east-west, north and south, but nothing here at my house. looks like I might get fringed again but that elongated cell just to my south might be able to get up here and help me out a little bit.

The furthest northeast tip of York Co did not get hit we just got missed here earlier, but there's a few more small cells popping up around me now.