Yardstickgozinya

I edited this post to reflect the most recently updated forecast discussion and conserve space. Nws originally stated that the chance for severe thunderstorms had increased through most of central Pennsylvania today. However there latest discussion is much more in line with the Spc convective forecast. Hopefully later tonight brings a couple rumbles of thunder, along with some more improvement in the rainfall deficit for many places throughout the area. 920 FXUS61 KCTP 310824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Minimal changes since the last discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. 2) Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. As of 0330 AM Tue, central PA is mainly dry with earlier batch of showers and thundershowers moving out of Sullivan Co. Looking upstream, there are a few clusters of convection over the Great Lakes region. The first is a decaying MCV across southern Michigan. Over the past couple hours, it lost all of its lightning and heavier precip. If it maintains steady state motion and intensity, it will arrive in Warren County by 0630 AM with nothing more than light rain. The second convective cluster is to the north of the aforementioned MCV. This cluster is much more electrically active, but it is tracking to the east and will likely stay north of the PA NY border for the time being. However if this cluster develops more of a flanking line of convection on its south side, it would probably move into our NW zones between 0730 and 0800 AM. A third cluster of convection is located just west of Chicago. This convection is also showing signs of weakening lately, but its remnants would most likely be over our NW zones by mid afternoon. Model soundings show a capping inversion and just 200-500 J/kg of MLCAPE through this afternoon, so currently not expecting much intensification of convection as it moves in from upstream. However there is a noticeable uptick in instability progged for the evening hours (5-11 PM). The HREF shows temperatures in the mid 60s-70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, and surface- based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range during this timeframe. 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 45 knots will be supportive of organized convection. Model hodographs show decent curvature in the low levels, with 0-3 KM SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat with these storms, but a conditional hail and tornado threat is not off the table especially with any discrete cells. SPC continues the slight risk over the northern half of Central PA, with the highest probabilities of thunder in the NW. As a slow moving cold front approaches NW PA Tuesday night, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to ride along it. With instability decreasing by midnight, these storms will gradually weaken. Main concern may transition to a heavy rainfall threat for any training heavy precip. Isolated flash flooding may become possible, but as of right now the threat is too low to include any of our counties in a Flood Watch (there is one up for much of western New York State). The cold front will inch southward across Central PA on Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. With the front dividing the area, high temps will range from the mid 50s in the northern tier to the mid 70s across the south. SPC draws a MRGL risk for severe weather south of Interstate 80. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. There is fairly large spread in model guidance for temperatures on Thursday. For Harrisburg as an example, the interquartile range for high temps from the NBM is 59-74F. Some guidance (NAM) even keeps highs in the 40s. Much of the uncertainty traces back to limited predictability with respect to the placement of a backdoor cold front. Don`t be surprised if we end up with temps in the 40s and 50s with low clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog across our eastern zones Thursday. The cool weather does look to be limited just to Thursday. By Friday the front lifts north as a warm front and model guidance is more tightly clustered showing temps in the 70s areawide. Warm weather sticks around for the weekend before a cold front moves through later Sunday knocking temps back down for Monday.

Why wait until Wednesday. Later today and tonight looks like it's worth keeping an eye on for at least some thunderstorms in the area. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I haven't given my grade yet. We are now at the point where that'll have negative agricultural impacts, but I'll enjoy it , if and while it's happening.

I can smell and feel some cooled crispy stuff making it down to the ground as I wrap up work. It smells like it's gonna get extrs chilly tonight.

Although, none of them we're detected, there was several strokes of lightning very close to my home over the course of a couple minutes last night. I believe that little area of deeper convection may have been the difference maker.

I finally got myself some rain gauges. I did quite well for this. My wor buckets, debris cans , rain gages and nws estimated storm total all align. Well over 1" here for me.

Hope cherry picked from the nws forecast discussion . As we head into next week, all model signals point to aresurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, severe weather chances will increase across the Plains. This will lead to a resurgence of moisture and a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

Just as I hit enter on my last post,several rembles of thunder before I could even get this one off.

Nice, steady rain here, of varying intensities for the nearly an hour. No thunder so far or strokes being detected anywhere close to my home .

It's funny, I was actually thinking about including your name in the post because, I realized we've been on the same level atleat in the terms of this topic. But then I figured I better not speak for @Itstrainingtime. There has been days i've gotten up and to check, and it's been scaled back.But it's very few and far between and it's generally done in the early morning update.

I think most of us realize expansion this time of year is many times the likely outcome . I wonder if anybody here could figure out the likelihood of spc expansions versus, reduction versus a consistent forecast in the final 24 and 8 hours before zero hour.

Wpc has highlighted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall ,to include all but, South central and South eastern Pennsylvania. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1