Yardstickgozinya

Latest update from the NHC said that thunderstorms have become better organized and may continue to do so over the coming days. They must have decided to raise it back up to 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. It's to keep moving west over the next 24 hours, then possibly turn to the south.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Highlight Changed Discussion -- 115 FXUS61 KCTP 170747 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 347 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Level 1 excessive rain risk expanded to all of CPA for today * Cooler temperature moderation next week && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Very humid with locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Very humid with locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon Highly anomalous moisture for this time of year (NAEFS mean pwat values near climatological maximum percentiles) pooling around the periphery of subtropical high over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley will interact with a surface cold front moving slowly south/southeastward from the lower Great Lakes to produce periods of showers and a few locally heavy thunderstorms across Pennsylvania later today. 17/00Z HREF indicates the potential for spot rain amounts of 2-3 inches. It`s very likely that most of central PA picks up some rainfall by tonight. However, we do not anticipate an all-day rain/washout. Cloud trends remain a tough call with early morning convection over north central PA, but fcst instability this afternoon across south central PA will be more than supportive for thunderstorm development. SPC continues to maintain a general (non-severe) convective outlook for today which is likely due to the lack of deep layer shear (displaced farther to the north) and poor mid level lapse rates (very moist, tall/skinny soundings with warm cloud depths greater than 10kft). Another taste of Fall is on the way for the end of the week with noticeably cooler and much drier/less humid air poised to return behind the front (Td crashing into the 40s/50s). Expect a crisp and cool overnight Friday into Saturday morning with some upper 30s possible across the northern tier. Dry/fair wx conditions are forecast to start the weekend and last through the day on Saturday followed by periods of potentially heavy rainfall Saturday night through early next week. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs show at least 90th percentile PWs returning the the region which is supportive for at least a marginal excessive rain signal. NBM temps have also cooled/moderated quite a bit Mon-Wed with most locations struggling to exceed 70F for daytime highs.

Yes. as of today they have increased the chance of further formation to 40 to 60% In the next seven days, and it's moving W to WNW. We may end up having to keep an eye this puppy.

This short video isn't weather relatedI but found this narration to be absolute gold.

Lol, they are fake palm trees. I'm surprised nobody noticed his artificial turf. The lucky bastard also has a little putt putt, endless whirlpool, batting cages, and trophy wife just out of sight of the image and totally out of sight of my dreams.

I started landscaping a few weeks ago for a new client. I knew I'd heard his name before but I couldn't figure out where. Anyways it turns out he was three year starting linebacker for the Oklahoma Sooners and had a short career in the NFL before injury. Anyways, I thought that was pretty cool, but I don't share my client's names. Lol

Here's something for you to watch. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

I felt like you might also be upset with me because of two specific occurrences over the last a few months. and that's okay, I wasn't upset with you at any point, and I feel like that might have been misconstrued. I was just giving my own thoughts and opinions on how I feel about certain things and not necessarily saying that you were wrong in any way. When the fiasco happened with the dweebs telling chesco, not the post in our thread I did notice and appreciate that you were the one to speak up. Thing is, is i'm already familiar with a few of those dudes and they don't listen to kind words. I didn't want to bring the situation back up, but I felt like you might have thought that I was upset with you . Im also fully aware that you wouldn't have liked the way I handled the situation that day so maybe that's the golden ticket. I could just be over thanking the whole d*** thing,but either way, i'm sorry if I did anything to contribute.

I've been over this stuff before. As a society, as a whole, we have to stop giveing people leverage to use performative outrage tactics , and try are best to ignore them, even though I know that it's almost impossible some days. I think the worst thing we can do , is let it get it us get us down and depressed. Me personally, I'd much rather be mad than sad. Whenever Bubble head pulled that s***, some you guys put on one of the silliest performances of performed outrage that i've ever seen. You a******* know exactly who you are and exactly what you're doing. When someone pulls out silly social media learned tactics on me everyone pays and I don't care how unpopular it makes me. My real friends are in the real world. The a******* around here can eat their own f****** donuts because i'm sure as hell not going to.

I actually believe they'er probably having a cascading effect myself. These are some video stills from a walk back from my fishing hole a little over two weeks ago. It's not just a few trees along the enola load grade trail, there's thousands of trees covered in lantern flies, honeydew and soothy mold like this.

Its bacterial and fungal infections that are starting to defoliate some species of trees and plants early.

@Itstrainingtime @Voyager I miss you two handsome whipper snappers .

US National Weather Service State College PA Tornado #49 for PA in 2026: 972 NOUS41 KCTP 120053 PNSCTP PAZ005-120500- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 853 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 09/09/2026 Tornado Event... .Lafayette Township Tornado... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 105 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.23 miles Path Width /maximum/: 200 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 09/09/2026 Start Time: 07:19 PM EDT Start Location: 2 WSW Cyclone / McKean County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 41.8097 / -78.6272 End Date: 09/09/2026 End Time: 07:22 PM EDT End Location: 1 WSW Cyclone / McKean County / PA End Lat/Lon: 41.8144 / -78.6054 Survey Summary: At 7:19 p.m. local time September 9, 2026 an EF-1 tornado with maximum wind speeds of 105mph touched down between Bradford Airport and Bingham Road with a maximum width of about 200 yards. It traveled east/northeast and damaged some trees around and west of Bingham Road. The tornado continued through the area of woods east of Bingham Road before doing its most intense damage along and north of Sprester Road. It uprooted and snapped many trees before flipping a trailer on its side. The tornado turned northeast and continued damaging trees into the woods before dissipating as it approached the Buffalo & Pittsburgh Railroad line around 7:22 p.m. local time. We would like to thank McKean County Emergency Management and members of the community who provided firsthand accounts, footage, and pictures of damage. && I apologize that this has already been covered, but If the limited research I did is correct there's only been one minor injury in Pa. That injury was sustained in York county from a blown out window. So at least that's good news.

I wouldn't say that any of the forecasts that I looked at this morning exuded much confidence. None of the cams in Bobby's video develop the Sunday afternoon convection that the nws mentions in their forecast discussion. However, it did show some early AM showers with a secondary cold front. His video was released a few hours before the last nws forecast, discussion update. Sunday's afternoon, convection/rain may still have been a little bit outside the cams wheelhouse if they really even have one. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Excessive rain outlook areas adjusted for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry start to the day, but moderate to perhaps heavy rain expected later today into early Sunday. Expect showers and storms to form later this afternoon into Sunday morning, as warm advection brings back the more humid airmass. This will be followed by more showers and storms later Sunday afternoon and evening, as stronger dynamics and cold front work on the humid airmass. Not a lot cold advection, abnormally warm and moist air take aim at the Great Lakes area again on Tuesday, as a strong upper level ridge builds northward from the TN Vly. ERO for today adjusted to one area, and SPC outlook for Sunday trimmed across the southeast. Complex fcst, as been the case this summer. Still holding off on a flood watch for now, given nothing going on yet on radar, still time to see how things play out later this aft. More information below. Guidance does put numerous heavy bands of rain over the area. FFG lower west and north, but heaviest QPF could be to the east. Also maybe things more an issue later Sunday, depending on where that rain falls today. Again, the problem is: where? With uncertainty high as it is and FFG getting higher slowly, still holding off. As mentioned in the Nws forecasts discussion, Spc has trimmed back the marginal risk for Sunday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html