Yardstickgozinya

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the gulf becoming quite active over the next 10 days or more . Moisture from tropical storm Isaias is expected to arrive here on Sunday ,but it doesn't appear to be anything that we'll really need to worry about at this point The atlantic basin is also brewing up some activity. Taken from the NWS local forecast discussion. A tropical system in the gulf will move up north towards the Ohio River Valley this weekend bringing tropical moisture and rain potential Sunday afternoon into Monday. This system looks fairly progressive. However, robust forcing and PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, particularly in the southern tier of the state, may yield some periods of heavy rain. Uncertainty remains regarding how this system plays out From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.0W at 07/0300 UTC or 300 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N between 91W-97W. An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from 05N-20N. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the tropical wave. A strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 66W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-18N between 61W-66W. This wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong E winds across the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 250 nm of these features. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Nine. Aside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is drapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida near Tampa Bay to 27N95W to 23N97W. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring N of 24N and E of 90W, as well as along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.2N 94.2W Wed morning, move to 22.5N 92.7W Wed evening, 23.2N 91.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.3N 89.7W Thu evening, 26.1N 88.7W Fri morning, and 28.8N 88.3W Fri evening. Nine will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 34.1N 88.8W late Sat. Otherwise, a frontal boundary along the northern Gulf will gradually weaken Wed and Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing moderate to locally fresh trades with seas of 3-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 73W. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends from 31N68W to the east coast of FL near Cape Canaveral. A 1010 mb low near 30N78W is along the front, with a surface trough extending southward to near Jupiter, FL. Scattered moderate convection is along and roughly 100 nm S and E of these features. Farther east in the central Atlantic, a pair of surface troughs stemming from a 1015 mb low near 32N40W are supporting scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 32W and 47W. Outside of convection, broad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 30N70W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Melbourne will begin to slowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida into Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as Tropical Depression Nine tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE Sat night through Sun night while weakening.

@Jns2183The new NESDIS web user interface absolutely sucks.

It is very impressive. I was working on my geo satellite post but you beat me to it before I could get mine up. I ended up taking out my water vapor images. Looks really nice from some of the other channels too.

I just took a True color SnapShot a few minutes ago for comparison. The storm looks almost identical nearly 24 hours later. I also took a broad snapshot in geo color to compare to Polo.

Apparently, we've already experienced the worst of the winds in our area according to the discussion. The aviation forecast doesn't seem to agree with that idea I expected a little more in the wind department, but i'm not complaining.. Not sure if anyone caught the sunset last night ,but for my pov, it was quite beautiful. It wasn't the most vibrant, but It was very Mackereled and marbled with textures ,soft pinks and blues. I couldn't help but to think of the great Bob Ross. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 440 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No more wind advisory threat. * Bumped PoPs up over the western half of the CWA today. * Lowered dewpoints (again) today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast. 2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast. The nor-easter center is just off NJ and will circulate back to the shoreline before sliding to the east and north later tonight and Monday. It is already starting to fill and will do so very slowly today and as it moves away. The wind and gusts will start to decrease a bit through the daylight hours, and will do so even more tonight. The loosening pressure gradient will mean that the threat for nearing wind advisory criteria over any of our counties is all but over. We did knock a couple degs off the dewpoints for today as the NBM has been consistently too high over the past 2-3 days. Despite this, the bands of rain should go farther to the west than Sat - so we bumped the PoPs to categorical for most of the CWA east of route 219. The rain may not quite reach the ground in the western layer of zones, but some hit the ground locally despite the lower-than-forecast dewpoints on Sat. Cool air is locked in, and maxes will be only 55-65F - coolest NE. QPF is looking heaviest just about where it was on Saturday - the Lower Susq. Someone might pick up another inch, but most likely not. Even so, the FFG is high enough to not have flooding even be a thought. Conditions will improve tonight and Monday morning. By noon Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will still be cooler than normal. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region. Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday. Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we`ll just make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It appears that dry conditions will prevail overnight for most, with the bulk of model guidance keeping ceilings above VFR. The main concern for the rest of tonight will be LLWS at eastern TAF sites as surface winds decrease to less than 10 knots while winds at 2000 feet remain around 40 knots. Rainfall appears to be more widespread after 15Z with the the nor`easter closer to the NJ Coast. This will bring a higher potential for lower ceilings and visibilities across much of the region. Ceilings and visibility should deteriorate throughout the day, with IFR conditions possible at nearly every airfield by 00Z Monday. Any showers will be quite efficient and therefore could result in visibilities dropping below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR). There remains some uncertainty with how quickly ceilings will lower, but the combination of reduced visibility when showers are most numerous and lowering ceilings after showers weaken/dissipate give confidence in a lengthy period of restrictions Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. The location of the Nor`easter will also lead to wind gusts exceeding 20-25kts across all of central Pennsylvania on Sunday; slightly stronger gusts are likely at KMDT and KLNS (up to 35kts possible).

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 342 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased/darkened the sky cover grids across the board for the next 60 hrs * Increased winds and gusts slightly, especially over the east today and Sunday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall Big storm will tuck itself between Long Island and NJ for the weekend. It will deepen to about 990mb depending on your numerical model/ensemble member of choice. At least one solution has the sfc low getting as far W as the Delaware River. Most keep the western extent of it`s wobbly track around the Jersey Shore. The wind already made a gust near 30KT at Wellsboro (KN38) around midnight and VAD Wind Profile from KCCX has 50KT winds not even 4kft aloft. KPHL has just gusted to 40KT (which is wind advy level). We may have to consider a wind advy, but current and previous thinking is that most gusts should stay in the 30s over our CWA. Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill and Sullivan Counties are the most-possible locations to get a 40+KT gust. The gradient stays similar in tightness from mid-day today through Sunday evening. Very light rainfall has already begun at PHL, and will work back to the west through the day. Expect some drops to hit the ground before 10 AM, and perhaps before 8 AM, in Lancaster Co. QPF is minor. The highest rainfall will be later tonight and through the day Sunday. Storm total numbers range from near 1" in New Holland and Dushore to less than a tenth of an inch from State College west. As the nor`easter lifts to the northeast later Monday, conditions should steadily improve with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR flight cats through the night with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog later tonight, but the probability of prolonged restrictions at any TAF sites is too low to include in the forecast. LLWS is expected throughout the ZNY airspace tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of a powerful Nor`easter. Surface winds increase to 10-15 knots out of the northeast after sunrise and gusts of 25-30 knots are expected for much of the day. The highest gusts will occur at southeastern sites. Light rain will approach MDT and LNS during the afternoon, but the rest of the region should remain dry into the the first part of Saturday night. A strong low-level jet will remain in place over much of Central PA through much of Saturday night, but the strongest winds may remain just above 2000 feet for most locations. Because of this, LLWS has been kept out of most of the TAFs. After a break in the rain during the evening, another round of steady rain moves in from the east as the surface low moves closer to the region. The biggest uncertainty in the forecast is just how far west this rain makes it during the day on Sunday. Ceilings should gradually drop to MVFR at MDT and LNS as the steadier rain moves in. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service State College PA 153 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased wind gusts and POPs/QPF this weekend * Stratified wx to rain vs. rain showers * Lowered maxT Sunday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall Sensible weather conditions continue to trend incrementally bearish on the margin particularly later Saturday through Sunday as wind and rain impacts extend westward from powerful Nor`easter tracking toward the NJ/Long Island/southern New England coast. Latest model guidance favored a minor increase in wind gusts and westward expansion of higher POPs/QPF to the Allegheny Front. Locations throughout the Susquehanna Valley will see the most persistent rain and strongest wind gusts up to 40 mph. We lowered max temps a few degrees Sunday due to the combination of clouds, wind, and rain. We can`t rule out some localized/minor impacts (sporadic power outages and tree damage) due to the wind gusts especially across the eastern portions of the CWA. It`s still hard to say how far west the precip will reach with the western Alleghenies most likely to continue an extended dry stretch through much of next week. As the nor`easter lifts to the northeast, conditions should steadily improve by the middle of next week with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR flight cats through tonight with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog tonight and have kept mention of VCFG at western and central airfields. LLWS forecast throughout ZNY sector tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of powerful Nor`easter. Rain could reach KMDT/KLNS by Saturday afternoon/evening. Highest confidence in sub-VFR will be over the eastern half of the airspace through Sunday. Winds/gusts from 330-030 degrees will increase Saturday into Sunday maxing out around 30kts. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Improving conditions trending VFR by midweek. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

Well, maybe everywhere's a little bit of a stretch, but it was on all the roofs and cars out here early this morning.

It was frost everywhere out here this morning. No one else had frost?

Yardstickgozinya Yardstickgozinya Posted Monday at 12:42 PM What a beautiful coastal setup being advertised today. Too bad, it's not January or February. Hopefully, this is a premonition to how we may possibly see some systems set up this winter. I wasn't sure how to move this post to a new thread. This feels pretty typical watching an anomalous storm, not far away, as we sit under bluebird, skies. That said this storm is forecast to do some things that I don't think we've seen in a very long time . I'm fired up and ready for winter. I can't wait another day so I'm watching the old tuck rule game tonight to help motivate me to get into my snowsuit physique. Lol

What a beautiful coastal setup being advertised today. Too bad, it's not January or February. Hopefully, this is a premonition to how we may possibly see some systems set up this winter.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 515 FXUS61 KCTP 190506 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 106 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No sig changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with cooler air settling in for tonight. 2) Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times. 3) Rainy pattern continues into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with cooler air settling in for tonight. With the cold front now pushing into the southern tier, high clouds are peeling off to the south. However, moisture remains trapped in the boundary layer resulting in widespread stratus and a few areas of fog. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the low 70s in these predawn hours. Showers are expected to remain isolated at best. A north breeze with gusts up to 20 mph will advect a cooler and drier air mass, with temps and dewpts in the 40s for central PA by late tonight. Patchy valley fog is possible early Saturday morning. Most, if not all of Saturday will be dry. ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times. Periods of potentially heavy rainfall are expected Saturday night into Sunday. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs show at least 90th percentile PWs returning to the region, which is supportive of at least a marginal excessive rain signal. A surface low expected to track over the Great Lakes will usher in this moisture and more than enough forcing for widespread precipitation. A few to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE should support some heavier downpours, but little to no CAPE above the -10C level suggests the lightning threat will be limited. Most likely rainfall amounts with the Sunday system are 0.50-1.50". ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Rainy pattern continues into much of next week. PoPs are progged to drop into the 30-40 pct range on Monday as high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the jet stream will remain active and amplified with Pacific disturbances moving across the nation. By Tuesday, most guidance has a slow moving trough in the Ohio Valley advecting warm air above a wedge of cool sfc air in place from the aforementioned high pressure system. This setup may linger for a few days, with up to several inches of rainfall possible through the week. The cold air damming will also result in high temps only in the 50s to low 60s. &&

Son of a b**** . waiting this s*** out in the rock point tunnel. Watching for the little 4' hairy, apple chucking bipedal, monkey dude that they celebrate around here. I got something for that little harry f***** if he shows up.