Yardstickgozinya

Light rain and thunder over head here at the beaver creek inlet at Pinchot park Edit for update Looks like I just got missed by something a little bette. Watched a couple forks come out of that lowering hiding in the rain.

Anyways, i've talked about this for several years and no one's ever really responded to it. But i've used LEMPs for years while i'm driving and working to know what's going on out there. Think of Cipher in the Matrix. Once you've listened long enough, you can make out the kind of stroke, whether or not it's getting closer and intensity. In the context of storms and meteorology, LEMPs stand for Lightning Electromagnetic Pulses. [1] They refer to the powerful, disruptive electromagnetic waves naturally radiated into the atmosphere during a lightning discharge. While they may not pose a physical shock risk to humans directly unless struck by lightning, they can induce dangerous power surges that damage or disrupt electronic devices and power grids. [1, 2, 4] Because lightning activity and cloud-to-ground strikes are a primary indicator of thunderstorm severity and structure, meteorologists utilize artificial intelligence and ground-based sensors to analyze LEMPs to understand a storm's behavior

Indeed A cell out there somewhere right now putting out some insane LEMPs. Tune in to an unused, a m frequency and listen you have to choose an a m.Frequency, that puts you between a tower and a storm. You'll know when you get there, you'll hear it.

I'm picking up abnormally, strong lightning strokes on my Am radio stations. The strokes generally don't cause this much interference at such long distance.

I completely agree, chances are this will be sporadic at best and that's perfectly fine. However, the one thing that all the top dogs have in common is the presence of the EML. It seems to be the main deciding factor between more of the same and a true widespread sig/svr weather when other enhanced indices are present.

I'm not familiar with that outbreak. However, it was a major player in the 5/31/85 outbreak for western pennsylvania. An additional component to the magnitude of the thunderstorms on May 31st was the presence of a significant “elevated mixed layer” (EML) , a common supporting ingredient in severe weather across the northeastern U.S. (Banacos and Ekster). EMLs act as a ‘lid’ in the atmosphere, stopping convection from occurring unless the lid can be removed or sufficient lift is present. The strength of the front and the degree of instability lead to the erosion or breaking of the cap and thunderstorms exploded with violent results. This following two figures from Markowski show 1, the presence of the EML in the 7pm May 31st Pittsburgh sounding and 2, the formation and subsequent migration of the EML across the United States. The following hand-analyzed upper air maps (provided by NWS Cleveland) from the morning of the 31st highlight the significant area of dry air (yellow shading) or ‘cap’ coming into play. The forecaster even analyzed a dryline (the bumpy blue line through the central Plains) on the 850mb map, showing the leading edge of the dry air.

If you dont believe me, then maybe you'll believe the american meteorological society. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/4/2010waf2222363_1.xml

Thursday is looking particularly interesting and it's truly worth keeping an eye on. Keyword elevated mixed layer. That's the main dynamic that keeps us safe out here east of the mighty mississipp and why we almost never see the big outbreaks the central and western united states sees. If it truly surges out ahead, this absolutely could be one for the record books. Contrary to popular belief It's not the mountains, the ocean breeze or lack of unmodified gulf air, thst prevents Central and Western type outbreaks from occurring this far east . EML lag is the true culprit. if we have the EML we're capable of achieving Central and Western United States type indices ,including those gargantuan fat capes in excess of 4000jkg that the MA/NE only see every thirty to forty years.

It's not unusual for me to step away for work and play, tis the season. When it comes to any kind of digital media less is better, so good for you. The concrete reality is, that there's a million different better and healthier ways you can spend time than being online. It's bad for the body and mind.I don't think thst there was any coincidence to the fact that I spent three weeks laid up with bodily injury early this spring. after leading the post count by a large margin, just a few weeks prior. The older I get, the more I notice a correlation between sedentary behavior and emotional and physical discomfort. That said, you're an integral part of this forum and an OG and it wouldn't be the same without you.

Not that anybody probably cares, but I got so far behind in work and life I decided to drop the forum for a while and until I got caught up.

There are some questions about tomorrow's setup, the big one, being the possible lack of instability. What started off looking like could be an anomalous storm season for cpa fell off a cliff quick. Instability and weak capping has been about as hard to come by the spring, as any of i've seen. That said, we all know big shifts are taking place right now so let's see what happens. Seems like we're moving in the right direction for increased convection opportunities and most importantly precipitation.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds. This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass. While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft

Sunday The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states. A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable. Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM