Yardstickgozinya

Latest discussion on today's freezing rain from nws. -- Highlight Changed Discussion 619 FXUS61 KCTP 030741 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 241 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures today into tonight && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early today 2) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely 3) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late week into the second week of March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early today A low-level warm advection regime will sustain light wintry precip as it continues to spread from southwest to northeast across CPA this morning. Some sleet and/or light snow may fall at the onset or on the front-end of precipitation as -2 to -6C max wet bulb temps retreat to the northeast. Light/minor ice accumulation from freezing rain of generally 0.10 of an inch or less is likely across the bulk of Central PA with slightly higher amounts possible - particularly on the southwest Allegheny ridges. Temperatures warm above the freezing mark from southwest to northeast through the afternoon into tonight effectively transitioning ptypes to plain rain. Fog and low stratus may be expansive overnight with lingering areas of light rain and pockets of drizzle.

Freezing rain atm. It's definitely getting slick out. The winter weather advisory was a good call. Watch out for morons this morning,and stay safe .

Sleet and freezing rain started here at 3:36AM

This is not the full forecast discussion. I only posted discussion on Tuesday mornings mixed precipitation/ ice event. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 120 FXUS61 KCTP 020800 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 300 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Posted winter weather advisory for freezing rain for almost all of the forecast/warning area for later tonight and Tuesday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations likely late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 2) Periods of rain with temperatures very much above normal Wed onward. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations expected later tonight into Tuesday morning. Over the past 24 hours, the model solutions have come into better alignment w.r.t. timing. The QPF and temperatures have been very consistent from run to run. P-type will be a varied mix at first, but the gradual warming aloft will turn the precip to liquid. The consistency has raised our confidence in a light glaze of ice occurring late tonight and Tuesday morning. We wondered whether it is a little early to post the advisory at this range (24-30hrs before start of the hazardous wx). But, the forecast has been highly consistent at painting measurable amounts of ZR over the entire CWA. WPC guidance, FRAM progs from HREF, and NBM forecasts all add together to make a high confidence forecast for a thin glaze of ice accretion in most places. We kept the goalposts wide on timing, that is, erring a little early on start of the ZR, and a little later than when the ZR should be done in each area. This should help our partners to be ready should it move in a little faster or end a little later. We didn`t want to call for too tight of a window. In all likelihood, the valley locations probably have more like a 3-6hr time period when ice may accrete before the temps warm enough to make it plain rain. But, the hills/ridgetops can stay sub-freezing longer into many events. For example, the 00Z NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings both turn the precip type at UNV (1150ft MSL elevation) to plain rain at 17Z. At that time, though, the temp profile has the temps at 1000ft still sub- freezing. Our surrounding ridges are that high above the valley floor (1900-2400ft MSL). That may be due to a boundary layer of the cold air staying in place while the warmer air works down from above - and the valley sfc warms due to the sun. On the other hand, the fast (30-50KT) winds in the LLJet of the warm advection could mix/force the warm air down onto the ridgetops before or at the same time as the valleys gets warm. But, from personal observation, the scenario where the ridges stay colder-longer than the valley is just as common. The arrival time of the precip lends itself to keeping the temps colder-longer. As for the NW: The northwestern zones may also need an advisory eventually, but confidence is just a little lower there for a glaze to occur. The temps may warm just enough before precip starts to keep it all rain. Collaboration among the WFOs resulted in holding off on issuing for them (Warren and McKean) on this shift. NAM hints at the llvl moisture increasing before the higher clouds drop larger hydrometeors into it. Thus, there could be some freezing drizzle before the main push of mix arrives. This is another reason to start the advy a little earlier than most of the guidance brings the measurable precip in. The criteria for a winter weather advisory for freezing rain as the threat is: any. Even if it just the thinnest of glazes due to the hazard it presents to travel, even on foot.

Get your snow blowers ready lol Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 201 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066-022115- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.260303T0900Z-260303T1800Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of York, Philipsburg, Carlisle, Lebanon, Newport, DuBois, Mount Union, Harrisburg, Hershey, State College, Mifflintown, Lancaster, Clearfield, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Lewistown 201 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch and snow accumulations less than one inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A light glaze of ice is expected late tonight and Tuesday morning, especially on the higher elevations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 428 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066-030930- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster- 428 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

D*** right you did. You've been running a perfect track record for probably well over two years. Every time a storm has missed north, south, east, or west you've called it. One can only enviously ponder such forecast precognition.

Tempus fugit. By the middle to end of next week the Spring peeper chorus will will be underway. The caddisflies started emerging today. With the exception of ticks, It'll still be a few more weeks for most biting insects.

Well, I was trying to figure out a a way to substantiate how much snow had actuall fallen in eastern pennsylvania. I figured that the Paoli, PA Red Arrow train incident in eastern pennsylvania was a good indication that there must have been some relatively decent accumulating snows in eastern pennsylvania on that day, seeing that it was nothing for trains in those days for both passenger and freight trains to plow through 1 to 2 feet of snow. Unfortunately, I could only find one article about it, and I don't believe that its factual at all. In fact, the more I look into the 1928 blizzard the more i'm starting to doubt anyone's written account of it.

That makes sense .I don't necessarily always buy into what Ai provides. I tried to find some more substantiated articles, about the event, in the Harrisburg area but, I couldn't find much. I did read that apparently there's not a lot of historical data from within the affected areas cities. I wouldn't think The Patriot news would be that ridiculously far off, but who knows. I didn't really dig deeply into the credibility of that article, or if it even exists.

I was just looking up some data on late season events and I found this one that I don't believe i've heard talked about here. Obviously it's an anomaly and i'm not using it to prove any points here, but nevertheless, who would have thought you could have piled 21" of snow in Harrisburg, only a few days away from May. The April 27-28, 1928, blizzard was a record-shattering late-season storm that dumped up to 21 inches of snow on Harrisburg, PA, and over 35 inches in surrounding mountainous regions. It paralyzed central Pennsylvania, closing businesses, causing widespread power outages, and breaking trees due to the weight of the snow on foliage. Key Facts About the 1928 Event: Impact on Harrisburg: The city was "buried" under a 21-inch snowfall, described by The Patriot as one of the worst storms in history, bringing life to a complete standstill. Regional Impact: The storm hit the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian regions, with Pennsylvania being hardest hit, though mountainous West Virginia saw up to 40 inches. Transportation Chaos: The storm stalled travel, including stranding the "Red Arrow" train for three days near Paoli, PA, with passengers forced to burn seat cushions for heat. Meteorological Significance: The storm was a "bomb cyclone" (rapidly dropping pressure) that hit in late April, making it one of the most devastating, late-season, and rare snow events of the 20th century

I decided to edit my post, after I thought about it ,because I dont feel like I was able to convey my question without seeming like I was challenging your model. I'm helping my son move tomorrow.But when I get a chance, I'll send you a pm.

I think the seesawing is goeing to be anomalously brutal this spring. I foresee a spring with a fair amount of chances, with coastals and cold air nearby. I know that you would love to see the whole month of March covered with snow , and that's okay. I personally just need the storm. The snow can melt before I wake up from resting for all I care. Because of my line of work and other passios I won't root for snow once the growing season has started. That doesn't mean that I won't enjoy it it happens, but there's far too many negative consequences for me to get excited at that point.

Awesome. Thank.you for looking that up. I'm not sure how deep you went, but it sounds like this spring falls pretty short on 1960 analogs. I'm hoping to get back to work in the next ten to fourteen days, so 1960 doesn't sound that attractive anyways.

I'm not saying you don't speak the truth, but I have an unscientific hunch we're in for an anomalous spring.

I'm already getting texts like this from my friends. So I know that something has been made about it on social media. You have to excuse the first two texts there.Everyone likes breaking my balls.