Yardstickgozinya

All I need is some distant lightning and rumbles of thunder to enhance my evening but I wonder if I will even get that. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 416 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * WPC added a MRGL Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rain on Saturday across Southern PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat and humidity will peak today. 2) Showers and scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, with the threat for localized gusty to damaging winds for late today and early tonight, mainly across the NW third of PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat and humidity will peak today. Increasingly southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will carry warm and humid air into the region today, well in advance of a cold front moving southeast across the Upper Great Lakes. A gradually narrowing SW-NE axis of very high PWAT air (1.8 - 2 inches) will reach the south shore of Lake Erie during the early afternoon, then sag SE across the NW Mtns early this evening before reaching the Southern Tier of PA before daybreak Thursday. This will be a 0.5 to 0.75 inch increase in PWAT over the upcoming 15 hours which will make it feel much more uncomfortably humid later today and much of tonight. The late day/nighttime peak in the won`t result in high heat indices today with apparent temps only about 3-4 deg F higher than the actual temps. High temperatures will be around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than they were today, generally ranging from the low to mid 80s. Heat index values may touch the 90F mark in the south central mountains on Wednesday as dewpoints climb back into the mid to upper 60s. Rain-free conditions will prevail for much of the day, though we should start to see thunderstorms develop over northwest PA by the evening. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers and scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, with the threat for localized gusty to damaging winds for late today and early tonight, mainly across the NW third of PA. Surface low pressure system will be moving across northern Ontario with a cold front extending south/southwest through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Tightening llvl pressure gradient will lead to an increase in synoptic scale/gradient winds this afternoon into Thursday. Wind gusts will increase in into the 20s today on the hilltops and also across the Lower SUsquehanna Valley. A gust near 30MPH is possible on the tops of the Laurels Wed night just before the front. The cold front will provide enough lift of the airmass, (containing a high shear/relatively low instability environment) to create numerous showers and scattered, embedded thunderstorms, with the majority of this convection occurring before the front passes later tonight in the north and Thursday morning in the south. There is some potential for severe weather across northwest PA with these storms as confidence in favorable overlap of CAPE and shear continues to increase with SPC maintaining similar areal coverage of their slight risk of severe weather. Most guidance (including the latest HREF) shows 500 to 1200 J/kg of MUCAPE developing out ahead of the front, with the highest values concentrated over our northwestern counties. Coinciding with this will be an increase in 0-6 km westerly bulk shear, with values between 40 to 50 knots. This should support some fast-moving discrete cells, growing upscale into some line segments containing mini bows with an enhanced threat for wind damage late today/this evening from Warren to Bradford and points about 40 NM to the South. Model soundings do show some turning in the lowest 0-3 km in association with a 40 to 45 knot low-level jet, and a few transient supercell structures or circulations embedded in linear segments cannot be ruled out. SPC has included a 2% tornado contour that covers much of the slight risk area. Showers and thunderstorms should weaken as they move south and east through the night into a more stable airmass. However, they will still be capable of producing localized heavy downpours. The current WPC outlook for Thurs paints a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall over portions of Cambria and Somerset Counties. Some CAMs show the potential for up to an inch of rain to fall into Thursday morning in the slight risk area, though most guidance would suggest that up to half of an inch of rain is the more likely outcome. Even though flash flood guidance is relatively low in these areas, the potential for any flash flooding appears to be low at this time unless any areas see training thunderstorms develop. High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry and sunny Friday. Low level moisture lurking just south of the Mason/Dixon line Fri/Fri night will advance NE across the state on Saturday as SFC high pressure moves well off the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Coast. This will lead to some showers spreading NE across the region with a few PM TSRA possible Saturday and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A more- active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any shots of atmos forcing. The second half of the week probably ends dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

I appreciate Bobby's video forecast. His forecasts are fast, straight to the point and his daily video forecasts are available about as early as anyone that i'm familiar with on youtube .

He's even got those miller, B's transferring off the carolina coast. This is a good man that knows how to look out for our best interest.

Taken from the Nws the forecast discussion. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient will support an uptick in synoptic scale/gradient winds Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Expect gusts into the 20s on the hilltops and also in the SE. A gust near 30MPH is possible on the tops of the Laurels Wed night just before the front. The cold front will spark SHRA/TSRA, with the majority occurring before the front passes later Wed night N and Thurs in the S. The risk for severe weather will depend on the magnitude of a shortwave trough racing through the region and any associated jet dynamics in play. Vertical wind profiles look unidirectional, so the primary hazard would be from damaging winds. Timing of the cold front and dewpoints largely staying out of the upper 60s to lower 70s range are the 2 main reasons to think storms will not get too crazy, unlike recent events. Timing of the cold front has been similar the last few days. SPC outlook currently has a MRGL risk area for Wed-night painted across the NW half of the CWA. Seems in line with previous forecasts. The new Day3 (Thur-night) outlook barely has the general thunder area into the CWA - basically along and S of the PA Turnpike. The current WPC outlook for Thurs paints a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall over the SW quarter of PA - including the Laurels. However, it will be difficult to squeeze out heavy rain without thunder/deep convection. So, we`ll chat with WPC about the threat risk. High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry and sunny Friday. There could be a few PM SHRA/TSRA Saturday and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A more-active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any shots of atmos forcing. The second half of the week probably ends dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

Hopefully, this flushes out some grass and hydrilla because it's been a pain in the a** in the last few weeks.

There's no longer mention of any ring of fire pattern in the local forecast discussion, but they do mention gusty winds ramping up on wednesday and lasting into thursday afternoon along with increasing chances for thunderstorms. At this point in time, it looks that timing will keep severe limited according to the nws.

Other than Krakataus historic 1883 eruption that significantly altered global climate ,I virtually know nothing about this volcano, so I definitely had a few questions that I used to compile this Ai overview with the last question being the most important. The current September 2026 eruptions of Anak Krakatau are highly unlikely to have a measurable impact on the global climate. While this latest eruptive phase has been powerful enough to blast ash and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) plumes up to 50,000 feet (15 kilometers) into the atmosphere—disrupting regional aviation and forcing flight cancellations at Jakarta's main airport—it lacks the catastrophic scale required to alter global temperatures. [1, 2, 3, 4] Why the Current Eruption Won't Change the Climate To alter the global climate, a volcano must inject millions of tons of sulfur dioxide deep into the stratosphere, where it combines with water to form highly reflective aerosol particles that block sunlight. [1, 2] Scale Comparison: The current 2026 event is a localized regional disruption. By contrast, the famous 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was a catastrophic Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 event. It expelled over 20 billion tons of material and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide, successfully lowering average global temperatures by roughly 0.5°C to 1.2°C for several years. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Plume Height & Volume: While the current plume has touched the lower edge of the stratosphere at 15 km, the total volume of ash and gas released so far is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to form a global solar-reflecting shield. [1, 2, 3] Expected Local Weather and Environmental Impacts While the global climate remains unaffected, the ongoing eruption will cause noticeable regional impacts: Acid Rain & Regional Weather: The sulfur dioxide cloud moving west-southwest can combine with local moisture to create localized acid rain and temporary regional cooling/haze. [1, 2] Ash Fall: Significant ash accumulation is affecting air quality, prompting warnings for residents and fishermen to wear eye protection and masks. [1] Flight Disruptions: Heavy ash presence in the upper airspace has severely impacted flight paths across the Sunda Strait and surrounding Indonesian provinces. [1, 2] Unless the activity escalates by several orders of magnitude into a massive, cataclysmic explosion, its effects will remain strictly an expensive, localized hazard rather than a global climate driver. AI Overview There is virtually no chance that the ongoing eruptions of Anak Krakatau (the "Child of Krakatoa") will escalate into a globally catastrophic event on the scale of the famous 1883 Plinian eruption. [1] While the volcano has entered a major explosive phase—sending ash plumes up to 50,000 feet (15 km) into the atmosphere and forcing multiple airport closures around Jakarta—it lacks the physical structure required to repeat its historical baseline catastrophe. [1, 2] The primary reasons a historical-scale disaster is highly unlikely include: The Cone is Too Small: The catastrophic 1883 eruption (a VEI-6 explosion) occurred because three massive interconnected volcanic mountains built up a colossal amount of pressure over centuries before obliterating themselves. The current island, Anak Krakatau, is a much younger and smaller edifice rebuilding inside that old caldera. It simply doesn't have the structural capacity or massive volume of trapped magma to trigger a comparable global climate-altering blast. [1, 2, 3, 4] Low Tsunami Risk From Current Activity: The Indonesian Geological Agency (PVMBG) and disaster management officials (BNPB) have explicitly stated that there is no immediate tsunami threat. While a partial flank collapse caused a deadly localized tsunami in December 2018, the cone rebuilt since then is currently not topographically steep or large enough to trigger a large-scale structural collapse capable of displacing the ocean. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] Magma is Venting Openly: Rather than sealing shut and building up pressurized gases over hundreds of years, the volcano's current plumbing system is completely open. It is freely venting its energy through ash columns, lava fountains, and loud booming rumbles. AI Overview There is absolutely zero chance that a giant flame engulfed boulder from the current volcanic eruption could fall on the person home that you dislike in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. [1]

Apparently it's not too out of the ordinary . Current Outlook: Experts note that today's activity represents normal intermittent unrest for the growing child volcano rather than the rare, centuries-long magma buildup required for an apocalyptic super-blast. [1, 2]

I had to go double check to see if it was real. I thought maybe it was a fake story ,but apparently Mount Anak Krakatau has already had a series of major explosive eruptions, and even bigger ones may be on the way. Mount Anak is the direct offspring of the original Krakatau caldera so I would imagine this could have major implications. I'm no volcanister or historian but this certainly sounds like it could be bad.

What is the deal with tornadoes? You spend your whole life building a house, putting up drywall, picking out a nice neutral beige paint, and then the air decides it just wants to spin really fast and carry your sofa into the next county. And the meteorologists! They get on TV with their little glowing screens, pointing at red blobs like they’re tracking a hostile alien invasion. "We have rotation! Seek shelter immediately!" Calm down, Gary! It’s just wind having a nervous breakdown. Why does it gotta touch the ground? Stay up in the clouds where you belong! It’s like nature is doing a magic trick, but instead of pulling a rabbit out of a hat, it pulls your garage off the foundation and deposits it neatly in a cornfield. And what do they tell you to do? "Go to the basement." Oh, the basement! Right under the house that’s currently disintegrating. That’ll make me feel safe, sitting in a damp concrete box next to a water heater and a half-empty can of wood stain, waiting to see if my toaster ends up in Ohio.

I never ended up under a core, in fact, I didn't even really get that much rain from the event compare to others. However, the anvils alone provided the occasional close lightning strike . Distant flashes and thunder were continuous. Nights like those turn out to be very productive for me becaus It gives me a reason to keep my butt outside and work around the house.

Ring of fire pattern returns later next week ? I was reading over tonight's Nws forecast discussion and was delighted to hear that we may return to a ring of fire pattern later next week. The good news for most of you reading this is that I haven't heard mention of that possibility anywhere else to this point. The spc does mention the return of thunderstorms in the northeast and mid atlantic next thursday but doesn't give any mention of any anomalous ridge and believes the best large scale assent will remain north of the continental border.

I believe it might have been confirmed this afternoon.

Unless something happens tonight, I never did end up under a core of any cell over the course of the last several days.

Since i'm already on the bender, I figured why not watch hall y'alls winter forecast. That old four eyed dork is looking as lean and handsome as ever I must say. Anywho, he expects the northeast and mid atlantic will get a snow or ice storm that exceeds expectations. That sums up his winter outlook for our area.