Yardstickgozinya

Since i'm already on the bender, I figured why not watch hall y'alls winter forecast. That old four eyed dork is looking as lean and handsome as ever I must say. Anywho, he expects the northeast and mid atlantic will get a snow or ice storm that exceeds expectations. That sums up his winter outlook for our area.

That was a beautiful bow echo . Even had the hallmark bookend vorticity. Unfortunately, when it exited that small finger of better low-level lapse rates, it just couldn't maintain that kind of storm vigor.. It is going to run into better mid-level lapse rate as it nears the susquehanna river.

I'm talking about the complex that I posted about around 4:30 in the morning that was due to get here around 8:00 9:00 am this morning If it made it. I stayed up all night last night watching lightning and listening to thunder. Im prepared to do the same tonight If need be, we don't get these patterns too often and i'm not one to miss it.

We're working with stable lapse rates today compared to previous days. We don't have 6 to 7°C cooling per kilometer this evening and these storms aren't maintaining vigor quite like they've been the past few nights. I'm not saying there won't be storms in the area tonight just pointing out an observation.

I don't believe all the convection, allowing models bring storms this far south and east, This morning, two of three brought that early morning Glaks complex through our area with some strong embedded thunderstorms. And that never happened. The other one dropped a complex through western pennsylvania, and that never happened either. Nevertheless, we have thunderstorms heading in this general direction, and we have plenty of a destabilized environment.

The whole state of pennsylvania has 3000jkg+ to work with.

I'm surprised no one posted this yet. Maybe everyone's burnout. Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 435 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061- 067-071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119- 123-133-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0650.260903T2035Z-260904T0400Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN ELK FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LYCOMING MCKEAN MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN TIOGA UNION WARREN YORK $$

The sun sucks, cumulus clouds are way cooler to look at.

I absolutely hate canadian air and blue bird skies. Reminds of fall and another boring weather periods. If it's gonna be cooler, the sky needs to least be filled with cumulus congestis to keep hopes alive and promote the top water bite.

I do

5:30am update on the monster coming off the Glaks.

I took the snapshot below at 4:36am The nam brings this newly developed complex over the lakes through western Pa The rrfs and hrrr target Cpa,with some pretty potent storms later this morning with that same Lake Erie complex.

That's pretty incredible. I don't know how much of this is going to come through, i'll echo @pawatch and say, stay safe out there.

Sheer vectors and storm motions appear to all generally be in the same direction, so that should help keep any tornado threat somewhat low. Especially down our way.

Thunderstorms starting to initiate in Northwestern pennsylvania in an environment with over 5000jkg+ available in the area that they are initiating in .