Yardstickgozinya

The southern part of the storm in pennsylvania is still lagging behind in the better environment. Convective maintenance will be a struggle not too long after crossing the river. Not only will storms have to deal with inhibition, it's also going have to deal with a setting sun.

Southern part of the the line is tapping into some of those better thermodynamic values down there.

The storm's about to move out of the best areas of support. These are the lapse rates that it moved into

You are correct in that cape is limited, but the storm hasn't outrain anything, in fact, it's moved into a better environment as far as cape and lapse rates go. The inversions in both the mid and upper levels, is the most likely convective inhibiting mechanism. Thunder and lightning just started rocking out of this thing as it moves out into the distance.

All bark, and absolutely no bite down here as I expected. Only a couple raindrops. There might still be some rain coming in on the backside here.

Tail end charlie

Rainfall timing continues to focus during the day on Sunday before tapering off Sunday night into early Monday/Columbus Day. Total rainfall amounts are generally forecast in the 0.50-1.50 inch range over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. Wind gusts 35-40 mph are possible over the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands on Sunday. && Taken from NHC tropical discussion. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 25.4N 88.4W at 09/0300 UTC or 260 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Seas up to 32 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday, as the remnants of Isaias quickly move through the Commonwealth. Our ensemble prediction systems remain fairly consistent in showing a quick eastward movement of Isaias` remnants and associated moisture from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic from later this weekend into early Monday. From this early vantage point, it looks like the most persistent/concentrated rainfall across Central PA will be centered on the Sunday afternoon to Sunday night period. Initial indications are that a combination of a short time window for heavier rainfall (most likely 12-18 hours, perhaps even less), plus a welcome recent stretch of drier conditions, should significantly mitigate the potential for sustained heavy rainfall/flooding. That being said, we`ll continue to watch the progress of this system closely over the coming days.

I'm not a big tropics guy per say, but I am a fisherman. All I know is that these kind of fall systems produce epic bites and fights ,so my budy and I are going to be out Sunday and Sunday night, taking full advantage. I'm heading out now to stock the cooler with bait.

I woke up to my third frost of the year with the first one being the very early September 25 for Fairview, Mechanicsburg, Dillsburg and probably beyond ,that I posted the picture of .

There's been a lot of chatter lately about the gulf becoming quite active over the next 10 days or more . Moisture from tropical storm Isaias is expected to arrive here on Sunday ,but it doesn't appear to be anything that we'll really need to worry about at this point The atlantic basin is also brewing up some activity. Taken from the NWS local forecast discussion. A tropical system in the gulf will move up north towards the Ohio River Valley this weekend bringing tropical moisture and rain potential Sunday afternoon into Monday. This system looks fairly progressive. However, robust forcing and PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, particularly in the southern tier of the state, may yield some periods of heavy rain. Uncertainty remains regarding how this system plays out From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.0W at 07/0300 UTC or 300 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N between 91W-97W. An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from 05N-20N. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the tropical wave. A strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 66W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-18N between 61W-66W. This wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong E winds across the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 250 nm of these features. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Nine. Aside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is drapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida near Tampa Bay to 27N95W to 23N97W. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring N of 24N and E of 90W, as well as along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.2N 94.2W Wed morning, move to 22.5N 92.7W Wed evening, 23.2N 91.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.3N 89.7W Thu evening, 26.1N 88.7W Fri morning, and 28.8N 88.3W Fri evening. Nine will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 34.1N 88.8W late Sat. Otherwise, a frontal boundary along the northern Gulf will gradually weaken Wed and Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing moderate to locally fresh trades with seas of 3-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 73W. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends from 31N68W to the east coast of FL near Cape Canaveral. A 1010 mb low near 30N78W is along the front, with a surface trough extending southward to near Jupiter, FL. Scattered moderate convection is along and roughly 100 nm S and E of these features. Farther east in the central Atlantic, a pair of surface troughs stemming from a 1015 mb low near 32N40W are supporting scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 32W and 47W. Outside of convection, broad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 30N70W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Melbourne will begin to slowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida into Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as Tropical Depression Nine tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE Sat night through Sun night while weakening.

@Jns2183The new NESDIS web user interface absolutely sucks.

It is very impressive. I was working on my geo satellite post but you beat me to it before I could get mine up. I ended up taking out my water vapor images. Looks really nice from some of the other channels too.

I just took a True color SnapShot a few minutes ago for comparison. The storm looks almost identical nearly 24 hours later. I also took a broad snapshot in geo color to compare to Polo.

Apparently, we've already experienced the worst of the winds in our area according to the discussion. The aviation forecast doesn't seem to agree with that idea I expected a little more in the wind department, but i'm not complaining.. Not sure if anyone caught the sunset last night ,but for my pov, it was quite beautiful. It wasn't the most vibrant, but It was very Mackereled and marbled with textures ,soft pinks and blues. I couldn't help but to think of the great Bob Ross. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 440 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No more wind advisory threat. * Bumped PoPs up over the western half of the CWA today. * Lowered dewpoints (again) today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast. 2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast. The nor-easter center is just off NJ and will circulate back to the shoreline before sliding to the east and north later tonight and Monday. It is already starting to fill and will do so very slowly today and as it moves away. The wind and gusts will start to decrease a bit through the daylight hours, and will do so even more tonight. The loosening pressure gradient will mean that the threat for nearing wind advisory criteria over any of our counties is all but over. We did knock a couple degs off the dewpoints for today as the NBM has been consistently too high over the past 2-3 days. Despite this, the bands of rain should go farther to the west than Sat - so we bumped the PoPs to categorical for most of the CWA east of route 219. The rain may not quite reach the ground in the western layer of zones, but some hit the ground locally despite the lower-than-forecast dewpoints on Sat. Cool air is locked in, and maxes will be only 55-65F - coolest NE. QPF is looking heaviest just about where it was on Saturday - the Lower Susq. Someone might pick up another inch, but most likely not. Even so, the FFG is high enough to not have flooding even be a thought. Conditions will improve tonight and Monday morning. By noon Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will still be cooler than normal. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region. Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday. Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we`ll just make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It appears that dry conditions will prevail overnight for most, with the bulk of model guidance keeping ceilings above VFR. The main concern for the rest of tonight will be LLWS at eastern TAF sites as surface winds decrease to less than 10 knots while winds at 2000 feet remain around 40 knots. Rainfall appears to be more widespread after 15Z with the the nor`easter closer to the NJ Coast. This will bring a higher potential for lower ceilings and visibilities across much of the region. Ceilings and visibility should deteriorate throughout the day, with IFR conditions possible at nearly every airfield by 00Z Monday. Any showers will be quite efficient and therefore could result in visibilities dropping below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR). There remains some uncertainty with how quickly ceilings will lower, but the combination of reduced visibility when showers are most numerous and lowering ceilings after showers weaken/dissipate give confidence in a lengthy period of restrictions Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. The location of the Nor`easter will also lead to wind gusts exceeding 20-25kts across all of central Pennsylvania on Sunday; slightly stronger gusts are likely at KMDT and KLNS (up to 35kts possible).