Yardstickgozinya

I just got home from quite another adventurous trip down to Colombia area. It's night's like this that truly make me feel alive. I sat on the river bank down there, listening to thunder and watching lightning with my son's girlfriend for hours before I decided we needed to wrap it up. Unfortunately, I waited a little too long for the comfort of my son's girlfriend, but once she felt safe all she could talk about was her catfish. That said, I hope everything's alright for the areas that have been sitting under these Storms. I've had four of my last five catfishing trips in Lancaster, cut short by thunderstorms.

I want to clarify that the Count is directed at myself. I found some wild s*** in the back of my medicine cabinet last night and i'm still having a good time.

I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.

And Thursday.

Wednesday Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week. ...Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic... Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly. Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs. Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

Tuesday Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least a few storms capable of producing severe wind/hail and perhaps a tornado are all possible across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become centered over the TN Valley on Tuesday as a mid-level trough becomes situated over the Interior West, and multiple embedded impulses overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. Rich low-level moisture will become established along the periphery of the upper ridge, overspread by cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft with the passage of the aforementioned impulses. Strong to severe thunderstorms may result, especially over portions of the Northeast. ...Portions of the Northeast... Deterministic guidance members are beginning to demonstrate a consensus in depicting an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting from the Great Lakes and impinging on the lower Hudson Valley while pivoting around the upper ridge. While mid-level lapse rates accompanying this perturbation may not be particularly steep, (e.g. between 6.5-7 C/km), rich low-level moisture (e.g. low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will be present. Furthermore, forecast soundings depict appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, suggesting some storms may obtain supercell structures. A severe wind and hail threat may accompany the stronger storms and a tornado cannot be ruled out. There is the potential for earlier day clouds and precipitation, which may yield a differential heating zone. Should this occur, severe potential may be confined to this baroclinic boundary. Since the specifics on the placement of such a boundary are too difficult to pinpoint this far in advance, a Category 2/Slight Risk has been introduced with the understanding that these probabilities may be modified in future outlooks.

If you like tornadoes and uav systems then you're really going to love the otus project. https://youtube.com/@the_otus_project?si=sgTvA6tK1chbhc-A

I'm not sure how many people here have read Genesis from the bible, but there's actually some scripture about fall. Genesis 1:3 And the Lord said, let there be Fall ,and on the first day he realized that it really sucked.. So on the second day he said, let there be football, and the Lord saw that it was good. I hate fall with a passion. I consider it the season of death , depression, shortening days and nasty a** pumpkin flavored food and drinks. If it's not going be blistering hot with high humidity and afternoon thunderstorms, then it needs to be in the single digits with snow on the ground and the next storm already in focus.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios. ...Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained. Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.

I thought I'd add this to your post to take us to Wednesday.

Open back up to a nice clear view of the eclipse. Tried to take some pictures, but they suck.

Eclipse is visible for some of us right now, at the moment, just got a pretty good look at it before it got filtered.

I guess it was hale, but I just drove through what I would call a torrential sleet downpour.

Love nocturnal storms. But there's some beautiful structure in these clouds that only the daylight could reveal.