Yardstickgozinya

1:34am thunderstorms are trying to initiate again in West central Pa with still a decent amount of instability leftover in the mid and upper levels.

Decided to leave work a little early this evening in anticipation of some creek and river turbidity.

Yeah I heard the second The fire in my neighborhood turned out to be a shed fire, and the property owner was able to get the fire out before the fire company arrived. I heard sirens heading to another emergency shortly thereafter. The School house Ln fire was probably where they were heading. Hopefully everyone's okay. It wasn't the most strokes that i've ever seen, but man, the groundstrokes meant business.

Several close ground strokes in my neighborhood home down the street is hit and on fire.

The thunderstorms that just initiated in northern pennsylvania shot up hail cores in a hurry.

There's some slightly enhanced kinematics ,slightly enhanced sheer profile north of my area.

4:00pm Mucape/ Cin /lpl low-level lapse rates mid-level lapse rates.

000 FXUS61 KCTP 311810 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 210 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Adjusted POP/Wx to better align with Day 2-4 SPC SLGT risk && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Late summer surge of heat and humidity brings multiday severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat to kickoff September && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A series of mid level impulses tracking eastward along the northern periphery of an expansive 500mb ridge will interact with anomalous moisture/instability and strong WNW flow aloft to promote a multiday severe storm and excessive rain risk across portions of CPA Tuesday-Thursday. A surge of late summer heat (max temps 80-90F range) with dewpoints in upper 60s to low 70s will result in a very moist boundary layer with impressive MLCAPE values in the neighborhood of 2-3k J/kg given mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Forecast soundings also show robust deep layer/effective shear values and appreciably curved, sizable low level hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur. On balance, the environmental parameters are quite bullish for severe storm potential. However, timing (time of day), speed, and location of each mid level impulse will be key factors that could modulate the bullish severe setup to some extent. Increasing MUCAPE values late tonight through Tuesday morning suggest storms/severe risk likely won`t be tied to the typical diurnal cycle. The severe risk will shift to the south of CPA by Friday, but an upper trough passage suggests some lingering shower activity into the weekend. The late summer heat is forecast to peak Tuesday and Wednesday with very warm nights +10-20F above the historical average and max heat indices approaching advisory levels/century mark across parts of south central PA. The upper ridge is forecast to retrograde by the end of the week which allows for increased troughing and a return to more seasonal temperatures for early September.

I just got home from quite another adventurous trip down to Colombia area. It's night's like this that truly make me feel alive. I sat on the river bank down there, listening to thunder and watching lightning with my son's girlfriend for hours before I decided we needed to wrap it up. Unfortunately, I waited a little too long for the comfort of my son's girlfriend, but once she felt safe all she could talk about was her catfish. That said, I hope everything's alright for the areas that have been sitting under these Storms. I've had four of my last five catfishing trips in Lancaster, cut short by thunderstorms.

I want to clarify that the Count is directed at myself. I found some wild s*** in the back of my medicine cabinet last night and i'm still having a good time.

I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.

And Thursday.