Yardstickgozinya

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 342 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased/darkened the sky cover grids across the board for the next 60 hrs * Increased winds and gusts slightly, especially over the east today and Sunday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall Big storm will tuck itself between Long Island and NJ for the weekend. It will deepen to about 990mb depending on your numerical model/ensemble member of choice. At least one solution has the sfc low getting as far W as the Delaware River. Most keep the western extent of it`s wobbly track around the Jersey Shore. The wind already made a gust near 30KT at Wellsboro (KN38) around midnight and VAD Wind Profile from KCCX has 50KT winds not even 4kft aloft. KPHL has just gusted to 40KT (which is wind advy level). We may have to consider a wind advy, but current and previous thinking is that most gusts should stay in the 30s over our CWA. Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill and Sullivan Counties are the most-possible locations to get a 40+KT gust. The gradient stays similar in tightness from mid-day today through Sunday evening. Very light rainfall has already begun at PHL, and will work back to the west through the day. Expect some drops to hit the ground before 10 AM, and perhaps before 8 AM, in Lancaster Co. QPF is minor. The highest rainfall will be later tonight and through the day Sunday. Storm total numbers range from near 1" in New Holland and Dushore to less than a tenth of an inch from State College west. As the nor`easter lifts to the northeast later Monday, conditions should steadily improve with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR flight cats through the night with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog later tonight, but the probability of prolonged restrictions at any TAF sites is too low to include in the forecast. LLWS is expected throughout the ZNY airspace tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of a powerful Nor`easter. Surface winds increase to 10-15 knots out of the northeast after sunrise and gusts of 25-30 knots are expected for much of the day. The highest gusts will occur at southeastern sites. Light rain will approach MDT and LNS during the afternoon, but the rest of the region should remain dry into the the first part of Saturday night. A strong low-level jet will remain in place over much of Central PA through much of Saturday night, but the strongest winds may remain just above 2000 feet for most locations. Because of this, LLWS has been kept out of most of the TAFs. After a break in the rain during the evening, another round of steady rain moves in from the east as the surface low moves closer to the region. The biggest uncertainty in the forecast is just how far west this rain makes it during the day on Sunday. Ceilings should gradually drop to MVFR at MDT and LNS as the steadier rain moves in. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service State College PA 153 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased wind gusts and POPs/QPF this weekend * Stratified wx to rain vs. rain showers * Lowered maxT Sunday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall Sensible weather conditions continue to trend incrementally bearish on the margin particularly later Saturday through Sunday as wind and rain impacts extend westward from powerful Nor`easter tracking toward the NJ/Long Island/southern New England coast. Latest model guidance favored a minor increase in wind gusts and westward expansion of higher POPs/QPF to the Allegheny Front. Locations throughout the Susquehanna Valley will see the most persistent rain and strongest wind gusts up to 40 mph. We lowered max temps a few degrees Sunday due to the combination of clouds, wind, and rain. We can`t rule out some localized/minor impacts (sporadic power outages and tree damage) due to the wind gusts especially across the eastern portions of the CWA. It`s still hard to say how far west the precip will reach with the western Alleghenies most likely to continue an extended dry stretch through much of next week. As the nor`easter lifts to the northeast, conditions should steadily improve by the middle of next week with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR flight cats through tonight with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog tonight and have kept mention of VCFG at western and central airfields. LLWS forecast throughout ZNY sector tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of powerful Nor`easter. Rain could reach KMDT/KLNS by Saturday afternoon/evening. Highest confidence in sub-VFR will be over the eastern half of the airspace through Sunday. Winds/gusts from 330-030 degrees will increase Saturday into Sunday maxing out around 30kts. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Improving conditions trending VFR by midweek. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

Well, maybe everywhere's a little bit of a stretch, but it was on all the roofs and cars out here early this morning.

It was frost everywhere out here this morning. No one else had frost?

Yardstickgozinya Yardstickgozinya Posted Monday at 12:42 PM What a beautiful coastal setup being advertised today. Too bad, it's not January or February. Hopefully, this is a premonition to how we may possibly see some systems set up this winter. I wasn't sure how to move this post to a new thread. This feels pretty typical watching an anomalous storm, not far away, as we sit under bluebird, skies. That said this storm is forecast to do some things that I don't think we've seen in a very long time . I'm fired up and ready for winter. I can't wait another day so I'm watching the old tuck rule game tonight to help motivate me to get into my snowsuit physique. Lol

What a beautiful coastal setup being advertised today. Too bad, it's not January or February. Hopefully, this is a premonition to how we may possibly see some systems set up this winter.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 515 FXUS61 KCTP 190506 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 106 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No sig changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with cooler air settling in for tonight. 2) Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times. 3) Rainy pattern continues into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with cooler air settling in for tonight. With the cold front now pushing into the southern tier, high clouds are peeling off to the south. However, moisture remains trapped in the boundary layer resulting in widespread stratus and a few areas of fog. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the low 70s in these predawn hours. Showers are expected to remain isolated at best. A north breeze with gusts up to 20 mph will advect a cooler and drier air mass, with temps and dewpts in the 40s for central PA by late tonight. Patchy valley fog is possible early Saturday morning. Most, if not all of Saturday will be dry. ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times. Periods of potentially heavy rainfall are expected Saturday night into Sunday. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs show at least 90th percentile PWs returning to the region, which is supportive of at least a marginal excessive rain signal. A surface low expected to track over the Great Lakes will usher in this moisture and more than enough forcing for widespread precipitation. A few to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE should support some heavier downpours, but little to no CAPE above the -10C level suggests the lightning threat will be limited. Most likely rainfall amounts with the Sunday system are 0.50-1.50". ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Rainy pattern continues into much of next week. PoPs are progged to drop into the 30-40 pct range on Monday as high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the jet stream will remain active and amplified with Pacific disturbances moving across the nation. By Tuesday, most guidance has a slow moving trough in the Ohio Valley advecting warm air above a wedge of cool sfc air in place from the aforementioned high pressure system. This setup may linger for a few days, with up to several inches of rainfall possible through the week. The cold air damming will also result in high temps only in the 50s to low 60s. &&

Son of a b**** . waiting this s*** out in the rock point tunnel. Watching for the little 4' hairy, apple chucking bipedal, monkey dude that they celebrate around here. I got something for that little harry f***** if he shows up.

Latest update from the NHC said that thunderstorms have become better organized and may continue to do so over the coming days. They must have decided to raise it back up to 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. It's to keep moving west over the next 24 hours, then possibly turn to the south.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Highlight Changed Discussion -- 115 FXUS61 KCTP 170747 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 347 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Level 1 excessive rain risk expanded to all of CPA for today * Cooler temperature moderation next week && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Very humid with locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Very humid with locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon Highly anomalous moisture for this time of year (NAEFS mean pwat values near climatological maximum percentiles) pooling around the periphery of subtropical high over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley will interact with a surface cold front moving slowly south/southeastward from the lower Great Lakes to produce periods of showers and a few locally heavy thunderstorms across Pennsylvania later today. 17/00Z HREF indicates the potential for spot rain amounts of 2-3 inches. It`s very likely that most of central PA picks up some rainfall by tonight. However, we do not anticipate an all-day rain/washout. Cloud trends remain a tough call with early morning convection over north central PA, but fcst instability this afternoon across south central PA will be more than supportive for thunderstorm development. SPC continues to maintain a general (non-severe) convective outlook for today which is likely due to the lack of deep layer shear (displaced farther to the north) and poor mid level lapse rates (very moist, tall/skinny soundings with warm cloud depths greater than 10kft). Another taste of Fall is on the way for the end of the week with noticeably cooler and much drier/less humid air poised to return behind the front (Td crashing into the 40s/50s). Expect a crisp and cool overnight Friday into Saturday morning with some upper 30s possible across the northern tier. Dry/fair wx conditions are forecast to start the weekend and last through the day on Saturday followed by periods of potentially heavy rainfall Saturday night through early next week. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs show at least 90th percentile PWs returning the the region which is supportive for at least a marginal excessive rain signal. NBM temps have also cooled/moderated quite a bit Mon-Wed with most locations struggling to exceed 70F for daytime highs.

Yes. as of today they have increased the chance of further formation to 40 to 60% In the next seven days, and it's moving W to WNW. We may end up having to keep an eye this puppy.

This short video isn't weather relatedI but found this narration to be absolute gold.

Lol, they are fake palm trees. I'm surprised nobody noticed his artificial turf. The lucky bastard also has a little putt putt, endless whirlpool, batting cages, and trophy wife just out of sight of the image and totally out of sight of my dreams.