Yardstickgozinya

My youtube feed has been full of talks of early winter snowstorms , visitors from outer space and AI pandas. It looks like it's going to be one hell of a digital ride this winter, hopefully we can have some early season sleigh rides to match.

Wind throughout the column can really throw off the estimates. The inaccuracies align with the nearest soundings yesterday. Some places south and west should have gotten a little more than what's reflected on that map but as I mentioned wins throughout the column effect, it, so it's a little more complicated than that.

I was thinking add 40 or subtract 30.

Not really sure how the wind affects the rides but there's no way I'd be able to be out in this shit for more than a couple hours without the wind, giving me a thumping headache . I have to be out in it all day today so I went proactive with th NSAIDs.

They always predict an average to above average hurricane season unless el nino is present. However, they do seem to break out a little more science to try to figure out the land falling part.

This video embraces the two things I miss dearly right now.Good winners and old times. The suspense is unbearable, but don't worry fellas Sally pulls through.

One of my most useful methodologies i've developed here at the forum is to blend the Canderson Forecasting System with the Blizcon. This seems to always produce extremely accurate and reliable forecasts for me.

I have no idea how accurate this is ,but I do see other historical dates on there that work out. I took it from site called extreme weather watch and it doesn't seem very professional. I'm assuming the July ninth was probably hail or graupel they got recorded as snow. Date Year Snowfall July 9 1930 0.1 inches October 19 1972 1.2 inches October 20 1940 1.5 inches October 29 2011 5.5 inches October 30 1925 2.1 inches November 2 1954 1.8 inches November 3 1962 4.0 inches November 3 1958 0.8 inches November 3 1951 0.7 inches November 5 1976 0.2 inches November 5 1891 1.0 inches November 6 1953 6.5 inches November 7 1953 8.9 inches November 8 1976 0.1 inches November 8 1927 0.4 inches November 8 1910 1.2 inches November 9 1933 0.3 inches November 9 1892 4.8 inches November 10 1987 4.3 inches November 11 1995 1.0 inches November 11 1987 4.8 inches

Hallelujah.

Most plants are aborting at this point because of low moisture in the rhizospher. You need a shorter day than where we're at at this point to trigger etiolation in most plants and trees. However, auxins and other hormones are tied to photo period length and temperature. If the cooler temperatures don't cause abscission, first the shorter photo period eventually will.

Don't be thinking i'm not always rooting for the anomaly or just to be dead wrong because I sure as hell hope I am. I will remain positive and will be rooting for the storms but deep down inside my true feelings will be haunting me. That said, here's a little Ai overview on this winter's solar cycle. I'm not complaining. The 2025–2026 winter is occurring during the Solar Cycle 25 peak, which is expected to last between November 2024 and March 2026. This period of high solar activity is the most intense of the cycle, leading to more frequent and powerful solar storms and increased aurora activity. While the solar maximum influences Earth's atmosphere by heating it and potentially disrupting satellites and power grids, the primary drivers of the winter weather are changing atmospheric conditions, particularly the fading of La Niña and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Just did a brief search on the solar phase in 1963 and I wasn't surprised to find this. During the winter of 1963, the Sun was in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 19, heading toward a period of minimal activity. Solar Cycle 19 is notable for having the highest sunspot number ever recorded at its peak, but by 1963, sunspot and flare activity had significantly decreased. We missed out last solar minimum as we sometimes do, but the long cold winters, we all love and miss could and will return any year.But as i've stated year after year, i'm a huge believer that the minimum time frame is our best bet.

What I'm saying is I would much prefer to take my chances with dry and cold and gamble on a overlapping mid to late cold season, active Atlantic or some angry gorillas. I still think we have a few years of descending solar untill we have a chance at a wall to wall banger.

If it's not going to rain, then I would prefer we get into December dry and, with some luck, cool . Snce we made it to this point without much rain, I personally don't want to see to much wet and/or cold around here the next 10 to 12 weeks. If we can get a cold winter, let's not forget we can have well below normal precipitation and still be well above normal in snow accumulation.