Yardstickgozinya

Although i'm fully aware that they know better than me, Landscaping can be boring and I think those mets be some player hating punks ass Mark's.

And yes, that may very well be, but sometimes around here, an isolated severe threat, is the best severe threat if your interested in watching and experiencing an intense storm.

The more juicy parameters, are hugging, the mason dixon line, and have been struggling to advect north and west throughout the day. That said, I think storm motions could help bring some of that better instability into our area and it feels to me like we should be building some of our own homegrown instability as I write this. That said we we're slightly capped at last glance. With a forcing mechanism so close, I don't think that cap means much. In fact, it may be more a facilitator then a hindrance for severe activity, but I'm still too new at this to speak with much confidence. Edit I meant to say advect north and east, not north and west.

This came out a few hours ago. I don't have rights to the maps or anything lol. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I occasionally read lazy forecast discussions, from time to time, but this one really stands out, especially in it's extended. Full discussion is in the link below. 211 FXUS61 KCTP 010817 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe thunderstorm watch #83 has been cancelled && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Big temperature swings and periods of rain/thunderstorms continue through Easter weekend into the first full week of April && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Big temperature swings and periods of rain/thunderstorms continue through Easter weekend into the first full week of April At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located from southern Indiana east-northeastward into southern Pennsylvania by the afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak instability. Increasing low-level convergence near the front and warming surface temperatures into the 70s should trigger scattered thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong to severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts focused within west-east corridor to the south of I-80 to MD line. Periods of rain/showers continue tonight into Thursday morning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I only included discussion specifically regarding localized threats. The full discussion is in the link below. No science to it, just a roll of the dice and some twisted intuition. I sense a convactive over achiever coming on today. Not that it will translate to today, but cpa had some decently, elevated parameters that went the waste yesterday . The cap fully eroded over most of the area by mid-afternoon, but a lack of forcing and meager mid-level's hindered any convective development. Although simple details, I think frontal timing and orientation are conducive to localize overachievement, especially if the sun can get that surface baked for us cpa southernish. SPC AC 010548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end tornado threat will also be possible. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I edited this post to reflect the most recently updated forecast discussion and conserve space. Nws originally stated that the chance for severe thunderstorms had increased through most of central Pennsylvania today. However there latest discussion is much more in line with the Spc convective forecast. Hopefully later tonight brings a couple rumbles of thunder, along with some more improvement in the rainfall deficit for many places throughout the area. 920 FXUS61 KCTP 310824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Minimal changes since the last discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. 2) Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. As of 0330 AM Tue, central PA is mainly dry with earlier batch of showers and thundershowers moving out of Sullivan Co. Looking upstream, there are a few clusters of convection over the Great Lakes region. The first is a decaying MCV across southern Michigan. Over the past couple hours, it lost all of its lightning and heavier precip. If it maintains steady state motion and intensity, it will arrive in Warren County by 0630 AM with nothing more than light rain. The second convective cluster is to the north of the aforementioned MCV. This cluster is much more electrically active, but it is tracking to the east and will likely stay north of the PA NY border for the time being. However if this cluster develops more of a flanking line of convection on its south side, it would probably move into our NW zones between 0730 and 0800 AM. A third cluster of convection is located just west of Chicago. This convection is also showing signs of weakening lately, but its remnants would most likely be over our NW zones by mid afternoon. Model soundings show a capping inversion and just 200-500 J/kg of MLCAPE through this afternoon, so currently not expecting much intensification of convection as it moves in from upstream. However there is a noticeable uptick in instability progged for the evening hours (5-11 PM). The HREF shows temperatures in the mid 60s-70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, and surface- based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range during this timeframe. 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 45 knots will be supportive of organized convection. Model hodographs show decent curvature in the low levels, with 0-3 KM SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat with these storms, but a conditional hail and tornado threat is not off the table especially with any discrete cells. SPC continues the slight risk over the northern half of Central PA, with the highest probabilities of thunder in the NW. As a slow moving cold front approaches NW PA Tuesday night, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to ride along it. With instability decreasing by midnight, these storms will gradually weaken. Main concern may transition to a heavy rainfall threat for any training heavy precip. Isolated flash flooding may become possible, but as of right now the threat is too low to include any of our counties in a Flood Watch (there is one up for much of western New York State). The cold front will inch southward across Central PA on Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. With the front dividing the area, high temps will range from the mid 50s in the northern tier to the mid 70s across the south. SPC draws a MRGL risk for severe weather south of Interstate 80. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. There is fairly large spread in model guidance for temperatures on Thursday. For Harrisburg as an example, the interquartile range for high temps from the NBM is 59-74F. Some guidance (NAM) even keeps highs in the 40s. Much of the uncertainty traces back to limited predictability with respect to the placement of a backdoor cold front. Don`t be surprised if we end up with temps in the 40s and 50s with low clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog across our eastern zones Thursday. The cool weather does look to be limited just to Thursday. By Friday the front lifts north as a warm front and model guidance is more tightly clustered showing temps in the 70s areawide. Warm weather sticks around for the weekend before a cold front moves through later Sunday knocking temps back down for Monday.

Why wait until Wednesday. Later today and tonight looks like it's worth keeping an eye on for at least some thunderstorms in the area. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I haven't given my grade yet. We are now at the point where that'll have negative agricultural impacts, but I'll enjoy it , if and while it's happening.

I can smell and feel some cooled crispy stuff making it down to the ground as I wrap up work. It smells like it's gonna get extrs chilly tonight.

Although, none of them we're detected, there was several strokes of lightning very close to my home over the course of a couple minutes last night. I believe that little area of deeper convection may have been the difference maker.

I finally got myself some rain gauges. I did quite well for this. My wor buckets, debris cans , rain gages and nws estimated storm total all align. Well over 1" here for me.