Yardstickgozinya

I think most of us realize expansion this time of year is many times the likely outcome . I wonder if anybody here could figure out the likelihood of spc expansions versus, reduction versus a consistent forecast in the final 24 and 8 hours before zero hour.

Wpc has highlighted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall ,to include all but, South central and South eastern Pennsylvania. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Nws forecast discussion concerning this evening and tonight's thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 755 FXUS61 KCTP 260823 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 423 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Leaning warmer with max temperature forecast today * SPC severe t-storm and WPC excessive rain outlooks expanded && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March Partly to mostly cloudy and relatively mild start today as south to southwest flow ramps up ahead of strong cold front moving southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. We still expect rain free conditions in most places to last into the afternoon (through 18Z) although can`t rule out a passing shower in the increasingly moist warm air advection pattern. Breaks in the clouds combined with the southwest breeze will support a very warm day relative to late March climo - with fcst max temps in the 65-75F range or +15-25 degrees above the historical average/within 5 degrees or so of daily record highs (see climate section). The aforementioned strong cold front will provide the primary forcing for a band of rain and thunderstorms to track from NW to SE across central PA this evening through tonight. SPC has extended the MRGL and SLGT risk convective outlooks farther eastward into western and central PA, however calibrated severe storm probs continue to focus the greatest hail/wind/tor risk in the Ohio Valley where CAPE and shear profiles are more insync. Influx of 1-1.5" pwats brings the prospect of locally heavy rainfall more into play and fcst QPF amounts have increased a bit particularly over southwest PA. It`s not clear how much fast movement and average soil moisture can be offset by training storms and orographics, but like the severe t-storm risk, the probability of runoff issues has increased on the margin and WPC will be monitoring for a targeted upgrade in the ERO. The highest rainfall totals are 1.50-2.00 inches in the Laurel Highlands.

Slight risk expanded into Western Pennsylvania Marginal Expanded well into central pennsylvania. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Some hassles dealing with keeping my debris tarp, open today, but all in all, not a bad spring day and afternoon for putting in some work.

I apologize if it's already been mentioned. Looks like many of us around the area could be racking up those rain totals tomorrow night.

https://www.tornadotalk.com/roundtop-ski-resort-pa-ef2-tornado-april-28-2011/ I was thinking about the last time I ever went to my basement. The same cell that dropped the F2 at Ski round top tracked directly over my home back on april 28 2011 right around 6:25am. It was one hell of a storm and it's the first and only time water filled up my window wells and flooded my basement. I just found this article, put together about it on tornado talk from 2021 With images and videos of the damage.

I certainly can't answer any of your questions about the science. What I can tell you, is thst you're absolutely correct In you're observations. I actually brought this up in one of my posts during a storm this year.. I'm sure some people were quite confused by my statement, because of its goes against everything we've been taught and told.

I use 20lb braid, tied off to a 15lb Fluorocarbon leader when i'm targeting Smallies.

Smallie fishings has made such a great comeback around here. Last year was epic. My son has really started on a heater this year. I never specifically targeted them until last year , and that was only when my buddy came home from Maui . Even though I never specifically targeted them , I used to routinely catch them while bait fishing until around 2010ish then i rarely caught any until maybe about 4 or 5 years ago . By Last year I couldn't quit catching them while bait fishing. I caught and lost several absolute pigs last year, and over my life because I only use 3 pound test while bait fishing. I

Its settled down here.. But it's been doing this on and off for a while, just not at that intensity, I'm going to live stream in case it does that again. That seemed to be the grand finale. If anything else should occur with intensity, I'll pop the live stream back up if I'm awake. All live stream post will be deleted after closure.

Those little blips mean business. As noted earlier, this stuff looked extremely saturated at the base, although not very tall. It's hammering down snow and sleet here.

It's been flurrying here since my initial post, About ten minutes ago, it switched over to sleet ,at a pretty moderate rate. It's still increasing in intensity.

Flurry's here at the moment.