Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Thats how the two storms for next week started as coastals that were too warm/marginal for the coast and now they are cutting well inland.
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I'm starting to think the only snow we may see this winter is the blue on the fantasy snow maps.
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NAM on it's own, storm 2 has a better chance of starting snow in/near NYC imo than storm 1 but either way both storms are going to be washouts.
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I still wouldn't totally rule out a half inch of snow to rain for the Wednesday event but not really sure what would be the excitement of that anyway.
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Hope we get a surprise storm after 1/27, we'll probably have about a five day window with cold air for something to pop up.
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GFS is basically a cutter now for storm 2 next week, even Buffalo flips to rain. Remember when this was a coastal on two models two days ago lol.
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It gets worse and worse, that gradient next week is pushing toward western Ulster/Sullivan. Even Orange county looks like mainly all rain with both storms.
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1/27 to 2/2 seems to be the window of cold air so hopefully we get a storm, cold and dry would be a waste.
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The NAM is usually over amped in the long range so while I don’t expect that to verify weirdly that’s interesting.
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Euro starts NYC area 30-32 for storm 2, I believe the more south storm 1 is the colder it will be at the start of storm 2 and the better chance of significant snow near the coast.
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ECM Crushes interior next week but coast gets some fun from storm 2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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In some ways it would actually stink if storm 2 next week was an inch of snow to heavy rain and that’s what blew the record.
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That’s a good point and beyond even the gfs I can’t think of too many storms that ended up a coast snowstorm that didn’t have several runs of models showing OTS. Id be pretty surprised if either storm next week is a coast snowstorm although wouldn’t rule out some frozen precip to start especially NW of the city.
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It even snowed on cape cod over the weekend. It takes a lot going wrong to not get any snow all winter even in a bad pattern but NYC may find a way the way this winter is going.
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The 12z gfs did shift east but it’s really now just in line with other models. Honestly the model agreement of the two storms next week is pretty good right now and they look almost identical except the second one starts out a little colder.
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Agree that one has the best chance although more likely warm/wet than frozen.
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Ukie is so flat and far southeast that the NW parts of the subforum barely get any precip, thats what it would probably take for the coast to get snow in this pattern.
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Ukie has snow on Monday. Came Southeast. Didn't expect that which makes me wonder what Euro will do.
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The early week storm looks to originate in the south unless you think the models are correcting toward establishing a more dominant primary low in the lakes?
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At least the northeast ski areas would finally get replenished https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011800&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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I don't expect wintry weather for the immediate metro with storm 1, but I think the NW parts of the subforum have a chance. Storm 2 I'm not even going to begin to guess precip type this far out.
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0Z CMC is a coastal hugger, only the gfs has a low in the lakes. Starting to think coastal hugger or slightly inland runner is most likely outcome here.
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There are a lot of storm threats but hopefully one of them is cold enough.
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The Sunday-Monday storm is still pretty different than what we've been seeing (cutters and rain to Montreal) at least as of now the NW parts of the subforum are still in play with that one.
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The coast's chance is maybe 1/26, CMC/Euro both show it but so far out.
