Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The Wed storm already is pretty much a cutter with some frozen precip at the start. The Monday storm is actually more favorable for CNE/NNE imo as there is stronger secondary development.
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The strength and placement of the high to the north is the only variable here that could make the start more interesting but I’d lean toward the scenario you described above.
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I agree, unless the models show temps below 35 I can’t really take the clown maps seriously at all.
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How much is needed to be considered measurable? I’m partly confused about this whole 0.0 thing because parts of the city saw a tiny bit of snow in mid December.
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The pattern stays active through early February and it's a little cooler so probably thats our best chance although this winter everything that can go wrong seems to go wrong.
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Only for a few days though.
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Yea probably honestly it's gonna end up all rain. On to the hour 240 storm, at least the pattern is staying active although I'm sure more rain.
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The 12Z Euro keeps the low south of Michigan and NYC starts snow on Wed. Can't believe we are tracking a storm that will be at most an inch of slop to rain but thats winter 2022-2023.
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If the low goes through Michigan and the high retreats it won't happen, need that high to stand strong.
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I'm close to saying snowflakes falling north of I84 is almost a lock for next week but don't want to bite on that one yet. Baby steps.
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It will also rain sometime in the next 7 days.
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I think that’s mainly further north once you get to latitude of the Catskills.
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I agree the changing to rain stinks but what are we gonna do, it’s our best chance to see any snow it sounds like before March unless something else pops up on the narrow 1/27-2/2 window.
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In a normal winter I’d agree, in this winter seeing an hour or two of snow falling from the sky would be something lol.
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CMC/Ukie/Euro all start NYC as snow for that one. The high to the north should support the possibility of frozen precip at the start. Still far out though.
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CMC trended toward the Euro with storm 2, looks decent for interior parts of the subforum and the coast gets a couple of inches before changeover. That one is still so far out could definitely trend (either better or worse).
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It is a little colder than 18z but only a little.
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0Z NAM still trolling.
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Winter isn't over yet.
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If the storm on 2/1 plays out the way the 18Z GFS is depicting I'd be ok with the rest of February being canceled.
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Hour 312 on the GFS, here comes our new fantasy storm.....
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18z nam in full blown trolling mode.
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Unfortunately I'd be surprised if the Euro is still showing the same thing tomorrow let alone by the end of the weekend.
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Kind of surprised the Euro is the model trolling us but Euro says you can keep dreaming next week especially inland https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011912&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Euro looks like gives ULL snow on the backend on Monday, doubt it happens.
