Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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It does feel that way but should we not be excited? This might be the first and maybe only accumulating snow we see all winter.
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Even if it snows they probably won't measure it properly as the rain will wash it away within an hour. I think at least 50% CPK sees at least 0.1 on Wed.
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GFS and Ukie are kind of similar. CMC has basically nothing.
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12z Euro looks snowy on Wed around midday but I’m sure will continue to flip-flop.
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The model flip flopping is annoying but I think Wed comes down to high placement, how intense precip is when it starts and how strong the cutter is.
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1-3 inches to 50 degree rain stinks but would at least be more interesting than anything we've seen this winter. I'm still skeptical though that there is any meaningful snow on the front end.
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Honestly based on latest guidance that might be underdone a bit but yea I get the theme in terms of where the gradient is.
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CMC- 0 inches for NYC Wed GFS- 2.3 inches for NYC Wed Both models have it in the 50s later on in the storm.
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Storm 1 is trending east last minute which is not something we are used to seeing. For most of us it just means a 36 degree rain but wonder if it will have any affect on storm 2.
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Im in lower Westchester right near NYC so def not part of the HV but rooting for the HV to get a surprise tomorrow night. NAM looks good for the HV.
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Yea I more meant showing a few inches for NYC with storm 2 and the fact it even shows NYC changing to snow at the end of storm 1. I definitely see positive trends North and West for storm 1 across the models.
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I have noticed all the models have trended more interesting for I84 corridor and points north with tomorrows storm. The secondary continues to trend east (surprisingly) which should help the I84 corridor.
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The 18Z GFS would be the best case scenario for both storms, right now it has no support so I'd lean toss.
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It would be from WAA front end snow due to the high to the north. Either way I don't expect much of anything but that would be what would produce snow.
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Admittedly I can get skewed by recent model bias but I’d be pretty shocked if nyc metro saw 1-2 inches on Wed at this point.
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The pattern after this week looks worse than this week
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Yea if 0.1 is considered measurable I think theres a decent chance.
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Yes that is going to be the key, does it come in thumpy or disorganized. The models probably won't finetune that detail until inside of 3 days.
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The storm is so awful i'm rooting for the record, would be more interesting than 0.10 washed away by rain. If it was like an inch it would be worth it.
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Let alone the fact every model has NYC at around 35-36 at the start of the storm, thats not a signal for accumulating snow midday. Depends also if it comes in strung out and messy or like a wall, like a wall would provide some evaporational cooling.
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NYC is a lost cause, I think you MIGHT get an inch from the two storms combined in sloatsburg,.
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Might actually have a better chance of a flip to snow on the backend of storm 1 in say Westchester and Rockland than any meaningful frozen precip from storm 2.
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The models not trending in the right direction for Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no accumulation south of the Tappan Zee.
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Exactly where we'd want it 288 hours out. Now the question is does it end up not happening, as a coastal snowstorm, or a great lakes cutter.
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Need a late development with a secondary to change the outcome radically and even then it would mainly only save places to our north.
