Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Too low imo.
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Highly doubtful.
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Just because it doesn't workout doesn't mean it's not a good pattern. If we get the December pattern again in March and get a little luckier it could be real interesting. On the flip side a bad setup can also sometimes kind of work out like tonight.
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I get the sense you think this may still be less amplified that currently depicted?
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GFS just came in noticeably colder for Friday, nice front end thump. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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That;'s why i'm pretty optimistic. I don't see much issues away from maybe the absolute immediate coastline as long as precip is heavy. 33 at night will easily get it done.
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Cut that in half for NYC/LI and most people on here would still be fairly happy.
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Wetter but seems like a sharp cutoff for some of the borderline areas.
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Did pretty well last winter close to events. Haven’t checked it this winter, no need to.
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I mean I’ve seen this setup honestly go either way but right now lean it’ll be positive for NYC Metro. Good timing, good precip burst. Surface temps and mid level warming somewhat concerning but low dewpoints should wetbulb most to at least 33-34. If NAM depth chart is right would be a pretty major bust.
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I have a different take. This storm is more favorable setup for this area than western PA. Plus daytime vs nighttime. This is not a white rain event unless precip is light.
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I mean it definitely could be worse, i've seen more borderline forecasts. This is pretty clearly mostly snow event for most of the metro north of a line from New Brunswick to the immediate LI beaches. How much it accumulates, how heavy it is, and I guess how soon does the sleet mix in are the main questions.
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Not sure if it has to get to freezing, 33 and heavy snow will accumulate fine at night. Obviously 31-32 would make a big difference especially if not that heavy.
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=19&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Cold and Juicy
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I noticed that too on the HRRR seems to be a bit of a lull around 11 pm and I can already imagine everyone on here freaking out at that time and then steady snow from 12-5 am (seems to stay snow longer than some of the other models).
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HRRR starts as rain, given current temps seems realistic. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Dewpoints though suggest fast wet bulbing https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2023022718&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Best Guess ISP 1.5 inches JFK 1.5 inches LGA 2.5 inches EWR 3.5 inches CPK 3 inches HPN 6 inches SWF 7 inches
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I can see Westchester schools closing or at least delayed even south of White Plains if some of the short range models are right. 7 am may be very rough travel.
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If the Euro/CMC don't go further north at the 0Z runs maybe the trend has stabilized, if they go even further north it's likely over.
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Euro ticked north again, verbatim still not terrible, does transfer to a secondary off the NJ coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Probably a burst of heavy snow 9 pm-1 am or so, then on and off sleet when light vs snow when heavier until morning north shore/Northern NYC and on and off sleet and light rain south shore/southern NYC. Probably everyone in the metro flips to light rain/drizzle tomorrow morning before ending.
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May not start until around 9 pm looking at some of the more recent models which would help in terms of cooling after sundown before moisture arrives. This seems to be one of those events where everything is sort of aligning in the right way.
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Nothing much has really changed except maybe higher confidence in >2 inches of snow from CPK northward due to increased moisture. The borderline areas are still borderline but I think the more thumpy it comes in the more it will benefit everybody .
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Yes more mixing but actually increased snow totals for most areas compared to 0Z https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022712&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Starting to get November 2018 vibes a little with amounts increasing more and more as event approaches but also vary this could still bust low too.
