Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Just saw the gfs seems to really smash eastern parts of the HV which I’d be surprised because of shadowing but I guess depends exactly where the best dynamics end up.
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Should keep dropping the question is how fast?
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40 and pouring.
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RGEM actually came in slightly snowier for some, amazing.
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And it’s the NAM. Verbatim it’s 33 for most places away from immediate coast so actually not that bad but again NAM.
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I think two questions remain. How far south does the rain/snow like make it with the first moisture slug and is anything that falls tomorrow on the backend steady.
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The recent runs look a smidge better for the borderline areas of the HV. Of course if the RGEM is right it’s a non event in those areas.
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NAM still teasing, has 2-3 inches in the Bronx and parts of LI.
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5 degrees is a big difference.
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Looks better for HV and worse for eastern SNE. What a weird storm and models kind of all over the place for borderline regions.
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I would not be surprised if southern Rockland and most of Westchester get no accumulation at all. It depends on temps and rates tomorrow morning.
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Depends if it’s 33 or 35. If 33 could be a few inches on grass, if 35 white rain.
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I probably shouldn’t microanalyze hour 210 but it’s already a red flag that with that track the 32 degree line is so far north.
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It might stick a little on the north shore, south shore no.
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Yea the range of uncertainty is a little less here, either 1 inch or all rain.
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Yea and parts of LI maybe getting more than NE NJ/Lower Westchester. I guess the east trend helped places like Ocean county and Central LI (if that verifies)
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Best Guess CPK- Trace JFK- Trace ISP- 0.5 inch HPN- 1 inch Sloatsburg- 2 inches SWF- 6 inches Pou- 6 inches Middletown- 6 inches
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The pattern for the last week of March does look interesting but it's the last week of March and I'm sure will find a way to fail us. Probably just a lot of coastals with cold rain storms.
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IMO have to post both the upside and downside extremes to give people a real sense of what can be expected, otherwise it creates a lot of bias when people only post the models at one end of the extreme.
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I;m going to post both high and low end images so people can see sort of the range iof options. CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= GFS https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Maybe but I lean the gfs is wrong and that sharp cutoff will be along or near I84. I'd be surprised if anyone in Westchester or Rockland is over 6 inches (maybe Rockland near the Bear Mountain region has a chance).
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I think NW NJ too far SW to get into the really good stuff but if you have elevation you may do ok.
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Of course the inverted trough actually happens when it hurts no snow chances but never happens when it’s cold enough to snow.
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Seems if there is a changeover in NYC it’ll be around 7 am. Really getting the absolute worse timing with this. The RGEM/CMC never change nyc over at all, all rain but they may be too extreme.
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I’m sure you’ll get more than cpk from this.
