Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Yea sleet is usually a great starting precip type for marginal temp storms.
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Yea you were probably far enough west to get a good backend thump. I think parts of eastern LI were mainly rain with 1-3 inches while CPK was like 15+ inches. I really think it’s too far out to know what this storm is going to do.
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Ok wondering if I got more than I think then because there was almost nothing outside at 8 am but maybe some of it already had melted.
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I think nws always starts conservative and thinks climo first. Even 2/27-2/28 they started off with nothing for the city. I think you kind of have to forecast climo first unless the evidence becomes too strong otherwise and thus far the models are showing far from strong support in any direction. Anyway just my take on it.
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Rain. Has a 2010 snowicane and look to it with the cutoff but only one possible outcome many hours out.
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Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential.
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Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly.
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CPK bad at measuring but in this case likely too warm inside the city for 0.6
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Four days out. If it’s light nonsense it will be rain though.
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Barely anything here.
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Hate to say it but I think RGEM will win this again. All models cut back at 0Z and the temps seem iffy where there is precip.
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I think the fact the models are so all over the place and change run to run makes it hard to get too excited yet. Certainly there is big potential in the next week or so but hard to have high confidence in anything right now.
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This would be the first major fail of the RGEM this winter that I can think of if the above happens.
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The second one looks like it has KU potential if it comes west. Looking at both GFS/Euro Eastern NE is blasted.
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Come 100 miles west and it would be boom, we really are dependent on dynamic cooling https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030618&fh=207&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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OP GFS still amped and warm for the coast with storm 1. I lean toss given lack of support from other models and ensembles.
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I hope it works out but for me it's still a caution that the RGEM has never been on board and is still not really on board. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030618&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=rdps
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Narrow cutoffs stink but nice to see the areas on the wrong side of the cutoff last week maybe cashing in.
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Yea suppression is more likely than a cutter with the first storm. Suppression for storm 1 shouldn't be terrible as it could pave the way for storm 2 as the Euro is showing. What we seem to absolutely not want is an amped up rainstorm for storm 1.
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Yea I get that. I don't want to minimize it, I hope it works out for your area.
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That's not really a hugger.
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One thing I don't love is even in a supposed great pattern coming up there seems to still be great lakes lows and I feel until we shake that it might be hard to get cold enough without threading the needle.
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I tend to think the "bullseye" with this will be 2 inches max and more likely coating to an inch. NAM over juiced as it usually is imo. Clippers usually dry out as they come east.
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Yep no agreement between models or even run to run agreement in the same model. Agree this won't be sorted out until at least mid week.
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Ukie must be surpressed for storm 1 because it hits Southern NJ coast. Models completely all over the place https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030612&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
