MDScienceTeacher

Forgot to mention, I went to Utah last weekend and did some hiking.... Above 8000 feet there was still 6 feet of snow on the ground. Truly astonishing. We got to hike in shorts in 60 degree weather on snow pack!  The ski resorts were still open also.  

Our waitress at a restaurant in Park City said that they are gonna try to Ski on Fourth of July this year in Snow Bird!

6 hours ago, Heisy said:

Don’t think I’ve seen this big of a difference between these two models at this range in my entire life. One is obviously wrong, likely gfs since euro has support from Ukie and icon




.

This is purely anecdotal and very much isolated to winter weather events, but ever since the the major upgrade in 2019, the GFS has been kicking the euro's ass when it comes to these long range disagreements.

Look at the last storm.

Looks like a possible Norlun Trough setting up in the 8-10 day period.  

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Nice EPS for second week of March.

I am sure it will be Rocking in March.. so much so that someone in Westminster will get 2 inches of snow that melts before it stops snowing.

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

They torched the remaining hazmat so as to speed up getting the tracks cleared, regardless of the additional hazards surrounding residents would have to face.  It wasn't until after burning all of the rest of it off when that they said "whoops, there are other hazardous chemicals there too."  BS They railroad knew exactly what was there.  It was right on the consist. The big railroads are just as bad as other large corporations that have an almost monopoly.  It is all about the $$$. I know through working in emergency management. We have had incidents locally where Norfolk Southern had to stop train traffic and they always whine that they lose a million dollars an hour when a line is shut down and implicitly say "screw public safety."

Wow.. that is really scary and unfortunate.  If I lived any where near there, I would go and get a baseline set of testing and imaging just in case the shit hits the fan.  

Check out the radar plume from the fire:

Concerned downwind citizen here.  Is everything okay in Ohio and the surrounding area?  Based on what I am seeing, it seems like there is some sort of major environmental catastrophe happening in East Palestine.. Like someone f-ed up really bad. 

If it werent for the aliens, I would think it would be major news.. but for some reason, none of the main stream outlets are covering it.  

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s all logical but keep in mind this is already historically unprecedentedly shitty.  My records go back 17 years but the Manchester coop records I found between 2 reliable stations go back 40 years. There is nothing close to this.  The least snow ever by this date before this year is ~12”. So it’s impossible to apply historical expectations to this since this winter has by far far far worse than anything we’ve ever experienced. 
 

This is a very interesting post @psuhoffman.  This tells me just how entrenched this current snow drought is and just how wide spread it is.  I was actually a little surprised by the ~12 inch number.. thinking that there had to be other years sprinkled in that were close to this.  This tells me that no one is getting snow any where, regardless of climo, elevation or latitude.  I mean, its the same all the way to through New York.  Look at Rochester:

11 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Forget all this technical brouhaha analysis.  As happens every year at this time, my wife's boss has a celebrity box at the super bowl.   They get a security deal, the whole nine yards.  All the CEOs attend.  Alas, spouses aren't invited, so I'm left at home to drink alone fantasizing that one day the Detroit Lions will make it to the top stage.  Some dreams never come true.

 

But this year with a threat inside d5 I actually pity my wife.  Two model runs in a row showing snow.  Yeah I'll watch the game and get copious text msgs with pics of famous people, but deep inside I'll know that I'm the one experiencing the super bowl in person.   The super bowl of snow.  

What does your wife do that she gets to go to the super bowl in a skybox?

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

Where is the euro storm?


.

What the 12Z is showing is meteorologically impossible. There is a low pressure in SW Illinois for 3 days.  That can't happen.

14 hours ago, Heisy said:

Yea for this system to work out as advertised we would probably need that lead wave to disrupt the flow and have the main one dig far enough S. Thing is there’s no blocking leading up to it so it will likely be more progressive then some models showing. Long shot, but ya never know


.

Blocking is not a full on requirement for it to snow in the MA.  Do we need it for a HECS? Sure.  But it snows all the time this time of the year just as it is advertised on GFS.  One thing I do like is that the spread on the ensemble members show a lot of lows to our south.   I think it might be having a hard time differentiating btw the first system and the second one, however the trend on the 6z was south, with a big trough digging in to the southeast part of the country..  if the 12Z runs continue that trend, we will have a nice snow storm to track.


Has anyone post the ensemble member snowfall maps?

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I feel like a big finish is coming. Who’s with me?

Me!!! 

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This year the coldest temps just went to the other side towards siberia. Maybe one of those winters, it will come down our side through canada. 

BTW... 

this happened:



and this happened:

56 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The big problem is and always has been for 20 years on all the weather boards-when it’s shitty the salvation of a pattern change is Always 15-20 days away.

Delayed but not denied is a Myth; a form of soothing.

Just gotta deal with and accept present moments and circumstances and not get into the trick bag of light at the end of the tunnel.  We had a great cold shot in December but mostly shit since then.  

The coldest stretch in our area since 1899 was Feb 15 to Feb 20 2015.  This time period featured several record low min and max temps. This demonstrates that it can still get very cold in our area. 
 

we shroud just focus on the pattern… it definitely will get a lot better for us and I would bet my house that we see a big seasonal snowfall number at some point over the next few years

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO Snow depth….

thats fine

I am sorry… but what does cc stand for?

It seems a possible good compromise is being able to discuss a warming world (the fact that it's warming really isn't in question and there's empirical date that shows it) and what it's impacts are on our weather.  What could be banned would be the whole "humans are causing it" debate which seems to be where politics comes in and things go off the rails.  But I'm not a mod so it's easy for me to say since I don't do any administrative work on the forum.  Maybe it would end up a disaster.  

I know, I know.. it right where we want it .. lol!!!!

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Looking better with wave 1

Comparing the overall progression with the last run, I am pretty sure the second one is gonna be north.  Look at that HP coming down out of Central Canada.  Thats real deal cold.  

12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

If it is the last thing I ever do ----- I am going to visit Palisades Tahoe during an epic atmospheric river.

I dont think the Northeast gets enough snow. Not ever. I wanna experience a ten foot snowfall. I also want to personally experience those life-threatening high winds on the ridgetops at 9000 feet, during an epic Sierra Blizzard!

After what I have seen on that webcam at Palisades Tahoe - let along actually get to BE in for REAL - I think bomb cyclones battering Boston with three feet of snow and only 95 mph wind gusts, are so pedestrian! I wanna experience a REAL, LIFE-THREATENING TAHOE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APOCALYPTIC SNOW EVENT! And, here's the KICKER! They get real snow AVALANCHES!

Me too! This is a bucket list thing for me. I feel like every year they get a 5+ foot event up there.  It would be relatively easy to time it given the  year to year consistency and how these events show up in the long range.. the question is whether or not they have good options for lodging in that elevation and the power.. losing power in this kind of event could be life threatening. 

BTW.. I actually sat next to a woman on a plane ride from Buffalo last weekend who said she got 7 feet in her back yard in one of the two big storms this year.  Not sure how much she was exaggerating but thats just about as much snow your gonna see from one event any where.  

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'd pretty much bet the table against suppression. So this either hits us flush or cuts--a GFS would be befuddling after all the SE ridge this season

If the other two global were on board with this suppressed look I would be happy but that cmc is just too much like what we have been seeing all this season.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I made a really long post about this in my “other” thread yesterday but this is totally about a cyclical pattern not AGW so I’m repeating the cliffs notes version here and y’all can deal with it. 

It seems we’ve transitioned into a -PDO regime. The last long term -PDO was from 1945-1981.  If true we can expect the pna to be “hostile” the vast majority of the time the next 30-40 years. If you look back at 1945-1981 the way we overcame that was mostly one thing. Blocking blocking blocking.  A -NAO would suppress the attempted SER and lead to a broad mid latitude trough coast to coast under the block.  Here is the h5 for 6” snows at bwi during that period. 

Keep in mind that uses 1990-2020 climo so the blue is exaggerated due to todays warmer normals. but you can see the longwave pattern. 
 

Note there the pna is still negative but not crazy negative.  The path to snow during our last -pdo was to time up less hostile pac periods with a -NAO.  
 

The problem is our last 4 blocks failed totally for the same reason, it just wasn’t cold enough.  That has nothing to do with the pac.  It’s rare to get a NAO block AND a big epo ridge.  Those 2 have a negative correlation.  A -NAO was how we overcame a bad pac from 1945-1981 so when we get blockinF fails and ppl say “but the pac” I roll my eyes because the pac is going to be utter garbage the next 35 years, the NAO is supposed to be how we offset it.  The positive NAO periods during the last -pdo cycle were awful by that periods standards. But the -NAO periods were very snowy DESPITE the pacific. 

QQ.. NOA describes PDO as such:

When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. 

What is the interior North Pacific.. also how does one visualize PDO?  Like If I were to pick a plot on TT in a region to see the PDO anomaly, what would I look at?

isnt it supposed to be the other way around?

6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

No.  It’s not going to snow again.  

Based on the record books, it appears that what we are going though is normal.. HOWEVER...it does appear that the snow droughts have been more frequent over the last 50 years. 

Given that we only have a small sample size, it is hard to conclude whether or not the recent more frequent snow droughts are a signal for some bigger decrease in annual snow for our region, or if the period BTW the late 1800s and 1950 was just really snowy for our region.

These are Baltimore/ BWI numbers:

1912-13  - 7.3

1918-19 - 4.0

1926-27 - 8.5

1931-32 - 4.2

1937-38 - 7.6

1949-50 - 0.7

1950-51- 6.2

1954-55 - 10.1

1958-59 -4.0

1972-73 - 1.2

1980-81 - 4.6

1988-89 - 8.3

1990-91 - 9.4

1991-9- 4.1

1994-95 - 8.2

1997-98 - 3.2

2000-01 - 8.7

2001-02 - 2.3

2007-08 - 8.5

2008-09 - 9.1

2011-12 - 1.8

2012-13 - 8.0

2016-17 - 3.0

2019-20- 1.8

2022-2023 - 0.0 (so far)

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are you an actual science teacher? Surely you've done the research on Grade 2/3 PCL sprains right? Playing with an ankle vs a knee are two very different things. Injuries are not equal! And when you still got swelling too? No way.

haha.. no your right. I think some times I get caught up in the moment.  Look at RG3.  If he didnt go back to early in 2012, he could have had a HoF career.

Paging Lamar Jackson.. Paging Lamar Jackson.. if you want to see how hall of fame leaders play through injury and lead their team to a championship.. I suggest you tune in to KC/ Jacksonville.