MDScienceTeacher

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji You know I am not a climate crusader on here.  My concern (on here) is only related to one specific thing on here and that is our snowfall. And it's related to 3 specific factors (Pac Hadley Cell expansion, MJO changes, and the prevalence of the SE ridge) that have all been linked to the recent warming SST's.  If it makes you feel better you can pretend its a cyclical thing and this recent SST warming is not at all related to AGW.  I don't need to go there as when it comes to my discussions on here it is 100% related to our snowfall and factors impacting it whether they are cyclical or a longer term trend is irrelevant to how they impact us RIGHT NOW.  If you read to the end of this there is a nugget you might even like, I promise!

@MDScienceTeacher I do not think the couple degrees of warming in the atmosphere is primarily to blame for our struggles.  What I think is having a bigger impact are 3 specific side affects of warming.  Specifically the warming waters.  3 affects of that are directly impacting our snowfall in a negative correlation imo.

1) The expanding indo-pac warm pool is affecting the MJO in a way hostile to our snowfall.  Due to the impacts of warmer waters there the MJO is being suppressed in phases 1-2 and enhanced it phases 3-5.  Phases 1-2 correlate to troughs in the eastern US and phases 3-5 correlate to an eastern ridge.

2) The warmer waters in general are correlated to the expansion of the pacific hadley cell.  This is having 2 negative impacts.  It is encouraging a central pacific ridge which sets up a hostile wavelength for cold in the eastern US, and its shifting the whole thermal boundary in the Pac north, which means when we do get a somewhat hostile flow off the pacific, the air is even warmer.  Pac puke is getting worse.  Worse than that I see signs that even a mix of pac and continental polar air, a mix that used to work for us, is becoming hostile because the pac part of that equation is so warm it dominates the equation. 

3) The warming Gulf and Atlantic waters have been correlated with enhancing the SE ridge.  Any wave approaching across the CONUS has more heat to draw upon in the southerly flow ahead of it.  This will push the boundary north and pump the ridge changing the storm path further north.  

All 3 of these factors are in a feedback loop working against us.  All 3 in tandem are enhancing the SE ridge and pushing the boundary north.  The first 2 are affecting what kind of airmasses are likely to even be available over North America.  Together I think these 3 specific factors, which are side affects of the recent warming, are severely hurting our snow prospects here.  

@cbmclean @jayyy I can't say for sure exactly how much these factors have degraded our longer term chances for snow and how much have been a convergence of a cyclical down period with these CC issues.  But here is my best educated guess.   I do think we have had a relatively unfavorable period that would have been a down cycle in any era.  But I also think this down period is worse because of these factors.  Much worse.  I also think the last up period was already somewhat suppressed here.  We did not do as well in the last 2 "snowy" periods in the early 2000s and early 2010's as places a little colder and less latitudinally challenged.  We decoupled for example with places like NYC.  What I mean is...there was always a pretty consistent relationship between DC or Baltimore and some cities that got more snow in that they should, over a set period, get 30% more snow.  Then suddenly they were getting 75% more snow!  And it happened over 2 decades!  I don't think that was a fluke...we were already not taking as much advantage of the last 2 snowy cycles as colder places were.  I think that is likely to continue.  There will probably be another "snowy" cycle ahead but there is a real chance for us it will be muted and yes we will do better than we have been...I don't think DC will continue to average 7" a season, but maybe in the next snowy period DC averages 15" instead of 20 or 25" in past 7 year snowy periods.  

The reason for my thoughts on this are I do think we will get years where the dominant pattern is so favorable it can offset these negative factors I listed above.  But those factors will still fight and so we might still lose out on some snow we might have got before those factors were all lined up against us.  But will a year like 2003 and 2010 suddenly be awful with like 5", I doubt that, god I hope not.  My guess is the really good years will still be really good.  And I do agree with @brooklynwx99 that there will be instances where warming enhances our snowfall and we might get a 20" snowstorm that would only have been 12" in the past...but I think on the whole that is not worth it and these changes are a net negative.  We are hurt way more than we are helped.  

@Ji @Maestrobjwa @WxUSAF here is one nugget of hope...I have read a study that hypothesizes that as the oceans continue to warm as a whole...eventually the affects of the indo-pac warm pool will be muted and the longer term impact of warming might be to enhance MJO waves into the central and eastern pacific which are cold phase locations.  I obviously had no part in this study but it makes logical sense to me.  Right now one part of the ocean has warmed faster and is enhancing convection in places we don't want it.  But as the whole ocean warms more the overall impact could just be a stronger wave in general which would make it more likely these waves make it into phase 7-8-1, which historically are the hardest locations for MJO waves to sustain.  This could be a net benefit to us at some point in the future assuming the whole thermal profile of the northern hemisphere isn't too wrecked by that point for it to matter.  

Yeah that is the best explanation I have seen.. ever about this... and it makes sense to me.  The one thing that really stands out over the last couple of years is that we haven't been able to pad our stats with the early December event.. (remember the Dec 5th series?).  It is purely anecdotal but it just feels we don't snow in December any more.   On a positive note, I do think we are getting close to our typical climatological window where we see 2-4 weeks of solid storm tracks and persistent cold air.  What happens during this period will be crucial in determining whether or not we score or we are left to hoping for a late season miracle while fighting sun angle.    

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

lets go. We need something to shut down climate crisis talk

LOL. climate crisis has nothing to do with shitty storm tracks.  When low pressure is tracking through Indiana, its wont snow here, no matter how cold it is. 

ETA.. Actually I take this back.. I really dont know enough about the interplay between our warming climate and atmospheric synoptic patterns.. but yay fantasy snow!  

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

It has been so warm.. with the dominant SE ridge. When we start seeing cold air sinking in to our area, seeing that big boundary layer is not surprising. I like the look!

21 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

That OC selection will say a lot about what they want to do with Lamar. Lot of folks speculating on internal promotion.

Over the last coupe of weeks I have noticed that there has been a ton of speculation and debate about Lamar Jackson's ability to play and how this relates to his risk appetite given the fact that there are literally 100s of millions of dollars on the line.

I dont know how hurt he was or is,  but I do know he was walking without a limp on the side line for the past several weeks. 

Great football players play hurt.  This is actually one of things that make a leader and a champion.  I am not a Pittsburg Steelers fan.. but Ben.. he would have been out there.  I mean shit.. I am pretty sure Huntley played though a serious injury on Sunday.  

The thing that I dont understand about this whole thing is that if you look at the "rhetoric" around this whole situation.. if you imply that Lamar Jackson weighed his upcoming contract while determining whether or not he should play, then you are somehow wrong or insensitive.  Or somehow accusing him of doing something that he is not doing.

This is rubbish.  Think about it for a second... he did the normal human nature thing.  If you could get a $200 million contract by not playing and not risking getting hurt.. you are probably gonna do just that.

If you had the chance to win a super bowl and that was most important thing... more important than the money... then your out there playing.

He chose the money.. most people would and I dont blame him.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Why would you go with a run that is almost 24 hours old over a newer one?

Oh wow!  Thanks... For some reason my browser didnt give me the latest run.. yeah everything is looking a lot better!!!

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That looks way better than the GFS as far as temps go.

Pivotal goes out 240 on the hi res.. and the first storm keeps getting colder.

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. They are sitting pretty right now for the next couple of weeks. Worst case I can take a drive 30 miles west and be in a couple feet of snow.

I am usual the last person to be a debby downer.  But I wouldnt be so confident about mountains. Especially not in the Mid Atlantic region.  

Until We see a major shift in the storm track and overall temp profiles across the nation, I am going with this solution from the euro.

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Are you drunk?  Alberta clippers have been extinct from least 2008.  More likely to see a woolly Mammoth than a 3-6" event around here.  

2014 and 2015 featured many clipper systems.  Some of them producing really good snowfalls for our region.  A lot of people forget that January 2015 featured some of the coldest temperatures our region has experienced in recorded history.

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

Exactly. This is what I keep telling people.  If the storm track continues to set up to our west with transient HP systems its not going to snow....  Until this changes, there is no reason to worry about water temps or warmer background temps.

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe someone will step up and be our sacrificial lamb so we can get our good winters back.

We will get them back.. history tells as this much.  I think we just need a more favorable storm track and better timing with the cold air.  Look at the period before Christmas.. it doesnt get much colder than that. In December.  Period. We also had an extended period of blocking.  

We just need timing and little luck.  

We are on an epic losing streak.  I wouldnt be surprised if the tables turn in a few week and we get several decent snowfalls.  

I really dont understand how there is 0 cold air around on the GFS with that big hp and the bombing low to our NE.  lets see what the euro does in the temps department.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's kinda where I'm at too. Not buying into this until we some more north solutions...Don't wanna get in the business of trying to will something north from Georgia. I mean, we ain't dealt with a ton of suppression this season yet, but all it would take is that 50/50 we need being TOO strong.

Well the operational GFS was way north. It literally almost cut.  That is if we are talking about the second threat (1/13-1/15)

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I am all about getting snow that I can go out in and experience and enjoy. That means having at least a few days of actual cold. Even a few inches will do. Last Jan was fantastic for that here. We pretty much know when we are in for a biggie as the signal on guidance typically locks in within 5 days, and in most cases that involves a Nino.

Oh I just realized that you are on the eastern shore.. didnt you guys have a top ten season last year? 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

When most here speak of 'big ones' it's usually in reference to a KU. Well, except for ravensrule that is.

For years, all I would care about would be the big time snow events.  If the long range model wasnt putting out 12+ inches, then I didnt care.  Over the years however, I have learned that this is a losing proposition and promotes misery in my life.  I think I finally have gotten to the point where I would be happy with just some snow.  Or maybe more frequent smaller storms. 

Getting wrapped up in the KUs and BECS and HECS and Bombs etc is a tough business to be in..

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The big ones get sniffed out early…even if this one does come together, the next week will have everything from “we are snow town USA” to “The base state is warm, move to Calgary if you want snow”

I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet.

Also.. dont believe what the GFS is spitting out in terms of that bombing low pressure over the canadian maritimes.  Here is the GFS for the first system.  Look how insane that is:

Here is the Ensemble for the same time period:

The ensemble favors the second system and keeps it from getting squashed/ suppressed to our south

There is a ton of agreement 174 hours out that a big storm is going to set up along with a trough over the eastern half of the country.  

Look at the agreement in the clustering of lows over Colorado.  Thats our storm for the 1/14 - 1/15 period: 

Now look at the 500 MB height anomaly a couple of panels later:

The trajectory of the isobars (WSW to ENE orientation) out in front of the upper level low steers that the storm  just to our south.  The low pressure out in the Atlantic also forces things to our south and reinforces cold air. 

It's a nice look IMHO. 

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn WAR.  What is it good for?  Absolutely nothing. 

On 12/27/2022 at 4:49 PM, MN Transplant said:

This chart might get to what WesternFringe is trying to say.  If you take a centered 9 year running mean, the "worst" periods over that kind of timescale aren't getting worse.  We are still pulling off enough of the 2003s, 2010s, 2014s and 2016s to balance it out.

 

 

 

I have been reading this discussion all morning.  Is this the farthest things go back with reasonably reliable data?

27 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Fair enough, but that event sneaked up on us here for sure.  The official forecast had us in a winter weather advisory for 2-4" snow after changeover.  The actual outcome was 16" for us and it stuck to everything and caused a quarter of a million outages in BGE territory!  That was one of the more memorable weather events for us no doubt.

But as boring as weather has been for us as of late, a shut down, drying out winds and bitter cold following is most likely the outcome.

A white Christmas would be nice, but as most of us here know the reality is we just live in the wrong location.  I guess we all should know better.

It's my number 1 in terms of dynamics - ie thundersnow, rates, accumulation over a short period.  Just an insane event.

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Absolutely been steadfast showing light accumulation for us.  Hopefully we can get some other guidance on board. 

I have been reading up on Anafront snow events and the key ingredient is the speed and direction of the forward motion of the front along with the wind direction behind the front.  With a slower moving front and wind direction behind the front oriented perpendicular to the cold front, there is a local zone which can still produce enough "lift" in the atmosphere to produce precipitation.

I would need someone who knows what they are talking about to explain better, but my suspicion is that the blocking to our north and east slows the system down enough to produce the anafront anomaly.  

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS still looks decent for some widespread snow showers.

This

16 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Carmageddon III?

I remember II very well, Jan 26, 2011.  And for us, the thump came completely by surprise!  House never had such an impressive row of icicles, looked like something out of Day After Tomorrow!

This is a completely different set up.  In 2011 the upper level vort passed just to our south making it a nearly perfect vort passage.  There was crazy dynamics with that storm.. but it was a more of a "standard" set up with a storm passing just to our south.  This is anafront snow.  And in order for anafront snow to work a lot of things need to come together perfectly.  Many times the models will over due these ingredients and show accumulating snow for our region but once it comes we wind up seeing only flurries on the back side of a front.  

The difference in the set up btw the GFS and the Euro can be seen clearly here at the five day mark.  Look at the low pressure aloft over the North East Canada:

This feature looks to steer the upper low diving south out of Canada all the way down in to Northern Alabama.

At the same time on the euro, there is ridging out in front of the upper level low which allows the storm to cut.

The 12Z/ 18Z GFS basically looked the same wrt to the overall upper air pattern.. definitely not a step towards the euro imho.

Just now, H2O said:

Shove it 50 miles E and its a slam dunk 

I cant believe that just happened