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MDScienceTeacher

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Posts posted by MDScienceTeacher

  1. 3 hours ago, stormy said:

    I will be brief with an answer before deferring to the C.C. Thread.

    You obviously misunderstand the premise.

    This study suggests that the Glacial-interglacial cycles are not germane anymore because of our CO2 transgressions.

    The climate gurus at the U.N. said 5 years ago that it would be more than 300 years before the AMOC shuts down.  Now, many scientists are saying with the AMOC at its weakest in 1,600 years, it could shut down completely between 2025 and 2095.

    image.gif.6bc0d0ea29ac0c393c6c18edcb371e7b.gif

    The cycles depicted above are caused by variation in the earths orbit and the resulting impact on solar radiation.  That’s an external force that is so much greater than manmade C02 emissions. It will be interesting to see if the current warming has any impact on glacial interglacial cycles but to say that they are not germane any more is foolish.  Anything generated by the earth follows the laws of conservation of mass.. this generally limits the level of impact human beings can have on climate.   Solar radiation on the other hand will likely trump anything that comes from the earth itself. 

    • Like 3
  2. Just now, stormtracker said:

    I don't.

    But yeah, I zoomed out and it's def south of 12z

    yup.. I could tell the improvement without even comparing it to the previous run.  This will probably be one of those deals where rates will dictate the change over and if we get a stronger ULL it will help to mix in the cold air aloft earlier.. 

    Nice to see the euro actually trend in our favor for once.. 

  3. 5 minutes ago, T. August said:

    End result for the DC/Baltimore area isn’t much different from 12z, but you are correct. We are moving in the right direction, with light accumulation now showing up near PSU.

    If you were in central pa the gfs and euro are pretty locked in. The only difference with the gfs is that the 850s crash a lot earlier and we get in the comma head for a few hours with some heavy/ dynamic snowfall.  At this point I am thinking a day out on the slopes at liberty might be a safe bet.

    • Like 1
  4. 5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

    Agreed, I think that was a decent enough shift.  There’s even been shifts within 100 hours that have been meaningful this winter with our last two events so I don’t think anyone can confidently say they know the final outcome.

    If you go back to 12z yesterday it is a huge shift in the right direction so I am happy with this.  What we can’t have is the 2 meeting in the middle.. so we basically have 0 wiggle room and are relying on the euro to continue its shift.  Fun times for sure.

  5. 53 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    Clearly a signal for snow well to our north for that window. Possibility for a little something is there though. And subject to change- we have seen that there is a path to victory on recent op runs.

     

    If the storm track and strength remains the same as what was shown on the 18z I will take my chances with the thermals. There is a lot of potential with this one.. I would not be surprised if we were looking at a warning level event heading in the to weekend.

    • Like 2
  6. 48 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

    I liked that run better than 12z.  Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms.  

    I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back.

    The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. 

    I am interested again. 

     

    Me too.  The last time we saw a progression like this I think it was Commutamageddon (Jan 2011).  Ground temp were really warm leading up to the event too, but the developing upper level low pulled in so much cold air that the streets caved in about 10 minutes after start time.  There is a lot of cold air aloft to work with.. I am hoping this one trends in the right direction.

    gfs_T850_neus_26.png

    • Like 5
  7. 1 hour ago, Kay said:

    By pure coincidence I ran across this recently...I actually printed it what a weenie

    IMG_5116.JPG

    I think that was storm #1.  A lot of people forget that every county in the state of md (except Worcester) was under a blizzard warning for the second storm… I don’t know if that will ever happen again

  8. On 1/31/2024 at 11:00 PM, George BM said:

    The surface low will most likely bottom out in the upper 960smb range around 03z-06z Sunday as it stalls or possibly does a small loop around Ocean City, Maryland

    Pulitzer Prize worthy

  9. 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

    Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago..  I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time. 

    My nephew just called me and said.. you gotta see the extended euro.  I said it’s a fake storm.. then he said..  “if stormchaserchuck is excited then I am excited”

    • Haha 10
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