MDScienceTeacher

3 hours ago, stormy said:

I will be brief with an answer before deferring to the C.C. Thread.

You obviously misunderstand the premise.

This study suggests that the Glacial-interglacial cycles are not germane anymore because of our CO2 transgressions.

The climate gurus at the U.N. said 5 years ago that it would be more than 300 years before the AMOC shuts down.  Now, many scientists are saying with the AMOC at its weakest in 1,600 years, it could shut down completely between 2025 and 2095.

The cycles depicted above are caused by variation in the earths orbit and the resulting impact on solar radiation.  That’s an external force that is so much greater than manmade C02 emissions. It will be interesting to see if the current warming has any impact on glacial interglacial cycles but to say that they are not germane any more is foolish.  Anything generated by the earth follows the laws of conservation of mass.. this generally limits the level of impact human beings can have on climate.   Solar radiation on the other hand will likely trump anything that comes from the earth itself. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don't.

But yeah, I zoomed out and it's def south of 12z

yup.. I could tell the improvement without even comparing it to the previous run.  This will probably be one of those deals where rates will dictate the change over and if we get a stronger ULL it will help to mix in the cold air aloft earlier.. 

Nice to see the euro actually trend in our favor for once.. 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

90:

 

Do you have a sounding?

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

Yeah Flacco. Comeback Player Of The Year!!!

It we cool to see Flacco , Ray and Lamar each on stage tonight!

This is Definitely a trend on the euro

 

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

End result for the DC/Baltimore area isn’t much different from 12z, but you are correct. We are moving in the right direction, with light accumulation now showing up near PSU.

If you were in central pa the gfs and euro are pretty locked in. The only difference with the gfs is that the 850s crash a lot earlier and we get in the comma head for a few hours with some heavy/ dynamic snowfall.  At this point I am thinking a day out on the slopes at liberty might be a safe bet.

Not sure if anyone has it faster but the low is maybe 50 miles further south at 84 hours

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS snow mean trending nicely...

I am pretty sure the vast majority of that is the first storm.

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of ensemble variation still on the storm. Some miss it completely to the south. 

https://ibb.co/2880jhz

Usually when there's a bombing low pressure, there is a wider range. 

To me it looks more like variation in the timing more then anything else.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Gefs way south

Not a member above the mason dixon.  It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs.  I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to.  Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes 

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

DT yesterday said there was no way the MidAtlantic would get snow next week.  So….

And we have this going for us.

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Agreed, I think that was a decent enough shift.  There’s even been shifts within 100 hours that have been meaningful this winter with our last two events so I don’t think anyone can confidently say they know the final outcome.

If you go back to 12z yesterday it is a huge shift in the right direction so I am happy with this.  What we can’t have is the 2 meeting in the middle.. so we basically have 0 wiggle room and are relying on the euro to continue its shift.  Fun times for sure.

1 hour ago, EHoffman said:

36 on the surface for our heaviest rates lol

I would not worry about it too much.  We have seen thunder snow with these types of setups in the past.. as long as we get the rates I am pretty sure the cold air aloft will mix down

Um guys..  not sure if anyone is getting this faster.. but the GFS looks like it might go off again.. could be wrong. but that 1039 HP isnt really budging.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

EPS seems to like Post PD more than PD. Feb 21-22. The PSU storm

If memory serves, the first PSU storm was Dec 26 2011.

1 hour ago, stormy said:

It's a SLAM DUNK  with all 3 on board at 240.

lol

53 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Clearly a signal for snow well to our north for that window. Possibility for a little something is there though. And subject to change- we have seen that there is a path to victory on recent op runs.

 

If the storm track and strength remains the same as what was shown on the 18z I will take my chances with the thermals. There is a lot of potential with this one.. I would not be surprised if we were looking at a warning level event heading in the to weekend.

48 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I liked that run better than 12z.  Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms.  

I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back.

The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. 

I am interested again. 

 

Me too.  The last time we saw a progression like this I think it was Commutamageddon (Jan 2011).  Ground temp were really warm leading up to the event too, but the developing upper level low pulled in so much cold air that the streets caved in about 10 minutes after start time.  There is a lot of cold air aloft to work with.. I am hoping this one trends in the right direction.

1 hour ago, Kay said:

By pure coincidence I ran across this recently...I actually printed it what a weenie

I think that was storm #1.  A lot of people forget that every county in the state of md (except Worcester) was under a blizzard warning for the second storm… I don’t know if that will ever happen again

On 1/31/2024 at 11:00 PM, George BM said:

The surface low will most likely bottom out in the upper 960smb range around 03z-06z Sunday as it stalls or possibly does a small loop around Ocean City, Maryland

Pulitzer Prize worthy

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think the Feb 13-14 storm has disappeared 

It is alive and well on the euro (albeit too warm)

It is pretty interesting to look at the progression of the Individual members on the GEFS.. look at the confidence on the 50-50 at 318 hours.. 

52 minutes ago, stormy said:

Kudos to you

In am not criticizing.  It was worth a posting and I am excited about the potential. I am just pointing out that we are in our climatological high point of our snowstorm chances and the only thing we get on the operational models is a 480 hour mega hecs

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wish I had the 16day GFS ensemble maps from 10 days ago..  I think in the longer range that everyone is talking about (last week of Feb/early Mar), we might have to worry about the staying power of +pna: It hasn't sustained more than a short time for a very long time. 

My nephew just called me and said.. you gotta see the extended euro.  I said it’s a fake storm.. then he said..  “if stormchaserchuck is excited then I am excited”

I can’t believe we are looking at 480 hr snow maps. This has to be a new low.