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MDScienceTeacher

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  1. MDScienceTeacher
    Really ?? I thought the ensembles have the same number of grid points as the op? And each member just gets initialized with slightly screwed data to find out how reliable the run is?
  2. MDScienceTeacher
    I know we have said this many times in the past but we could easily see a slight Trend northward as we move closer to the event. Especially with a more amped storm. I am loving where we sit right now.
  3. MDScienceTeacher
    Come on man. It can easily snow a foot here. This winter has proven that winters are far from over for our region!
  4. MDScienceTeacher
    Have we made it past the dreaded Pacific Dropsonde data injection point yet? I dont know if you guys remember but the last storm was a 10-15 inch deal before @stormtracker jinxed it with the storm thread and Dropsonde data. At any rate, she looks healthy to me:
  5. MDScienceTeacher
    The fact that one is showing up is telling imho. That’s a signature of every big storm in the mid range. You start seeing this high total bullseyes right at the pivot point for the storm. I am just glad we are seeing one. btw did you see the surface temps are at around 20 for these ccb panels.
  6. MDScienceTeacher
    Yeah it looks like all systems go but I just want to give @Jisomething to think about.
  7. MDScienceTeacher
    I have been lurking since Boxing Day.. and I know that there is something to it.. like whenever it finally snows is inevitably when someone is leaving town. Anyway I don’t leave til night time. As long as I get to watch it fall I am good! And if I get a delay because of a foot or more of snow so be it!! It’s a win win for me.
  8. MDScienceTeacher
    @Ji the one time ever in history that the gfs pulls off a coup would be now right?
  9. MDScienceTeacher
    Yeah I have a flight leaving for Puerto Rico… been planned for months now
  10. MDScienceTeacher
    Can't wait!
  11. MDScienceTeacher
    Our last two storms had a period in the mid - long range that featured all of the major models showing MECS like totals in the Baltimore-Washington Corridor only to correct south once we got below 96 hours. Until I see different, I am going to be stay cautiously optimistic but be open to the fact that the Euro could do the old rug pull at any time..
  12. MDScienceTeacher
    Fixed it for you .. lol JK.. It definitely is a good sign though that we were able to get Wall to Wall cold this winter
  13. MDScienceTeacher
    Yup! My favorite ensemble plot is the individual members.. this type of agreement 180 hours out is a pretty big deal
  14. MDScienceTeacher
    So I am way up in northern hoco md and it has been steady light snow all day and we managed to break 3.. there wasn’t so much of a cutoff around here it was more gradual. Where are you located?
  15. MDScienceTeacher
    Hmmm.. I am in Elliott city and I am 3.5 already. I am really surprised you have gotten to 3 yet. Is it temp issues? Looks like plenty of returns down there
  16. MDScienceTeacher
    Thats what I thought but usual there is at least some logic in his pessimism.. that post made no sense.. unless he was comparing the last euro to the GFS MECS runs from last week..
  17. MDScienceTeacher
    hold on.. it is identical to the 00z:
  18. MDScienceTeacher
    I havent been paying that close attention.. what did it say 7-12 before and now it says 5-10?
  19. MDScienceTeacher
    this happens every time when we are waiting for it to start to snow. For some reason people start to panic and think that it is over before it starts
  20. MDScienceTeacher
    A snow day is a snow day. It is sacred in my opinion and shall not be infringed upon. Even if the technology is available for virtual alternatives.
  21. MDScienceTeacher
    Thank you! I was getting annoyed with the all the over cautiousness/ conservatism wrt to the total potential for this storm. Everyone seems to be stuck on 3-6/ 2-4 amounts. I think that It won’t take much to push this over 8 inches. So why not go all in?
  22. MDScienceTeacher
    This takes melting/ surface temperatures/ rates etc into consideration. A lot of people say that it is more useful than the regular total snowfall. I am convinced that Tt counts cold rain as snow for in total snowfall maps.. so positive snow depth is probably more reliable.
  23. MDScienceTeacher
    That would do it
  24. MDScienceTeacher
    I was never buying it and if it did show .75 inches qpf over 24 hours I would think that a lot of that is lost to melting especially during the day time. I would much rather see .4 inches in a 6 hour period than .75 over 24 hours.
  25. MDScienceTeacher
    Where do I sign?
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