AtlanticWx

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened?

nothing notable from what i can recall

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m pretty sure it’s coming. My only concern is despite a height pattern that says the snow axis should be centered south of 40* the ens mean continues to have the snow focused pretty far north.  Today’s euro control is another good example also. Look at the 30 day mean h5 and you think “omg Raleigh to DC must be getting smoked” but then look at the snow and it’s mostly all NW of DC centered central PA up into New England again. This isn’t a one run fluke it’s been consistent every run lately. 
 

@Terpeast curious your take. Usually I disregard snow output at range completely but given everything lately and how much we have riding on this upcoming pattern I’ll be honest it has me at least mildly perplexed. 

i get your point but any weeklies map i've seen always looks like the climo average for the time period without fail. it makes sense, run 100 simulations of the same pattern and you'll end up with a climo average with tweaks in either direction based off the favorability of the pattern

12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

 

The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.

 

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i think we're in it for a while. on weeklies, the MJO doesn't even reach the indian ocean till march. and IO forcing becomes more favorable for us later in the winter (esp in early march). i really think once we see the onset of this pattern it's probably not going away for possibly the rest of winter here 

12/11: 2"

1/14: 0.3"

1/15 - 1/16: 5.6"

1/19: 7.1"

Total: 15.0"

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Omg he wants a big storm. He’s said that. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” snow since 2016. I get his frustration and he is right the chances of a BIG snow go down in the city by March.  People posting examples of 2-4” snows and snows that hit west of the fall line don’t really refute his point. 

my bad, i only saw his comment about march snow. and i agree, climo falls off a cliff in early march for any big storms

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's still rather rare. And who knows if that still works now. 2014 & 2015 were the last time...

P.S. Where did you get the data for specific storms those years? (I have a list of the big ones and overall seasonal totals...but not the smaller ones)

we get march snow quite often. march 16 2022 dropped 4-6" across the NW metro thru an anafrontal and i know we got like 2" in march 2019  

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I kinda think we don’t get to Feb 15 without two more threats. Will we stick the landing… probably not.

i think the look for jan 30 is pretty nice for a minor event here maybe, but mostly a new england setup tbh. the preceding airmass is so frigid though so i don't think this overextension will be as bad as the last where we went from an already warm airmass to even more warm

this winter is shaping up to be great imo

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

So just out of curiosity, what did the pattern look like this week? What does a pattern where DC can get two snows with basically no temp issues and hold snow cover for a week look like?

imo our next window is feb 15-march 15 based off weeklies & adjusting it for the probable fact that it gets can kicked a bit though. 

widespread 10-12" for the entire week across moco & hoco. what a run lmfao i did not expect this — i guess that's what ample cold and blocking does

7.5" here! I had the same totals as my friends in Gaithersburg & Clarksburg before hand, but we really lucked out with the squalls here. Picked up like 1.5" with the squalls, we really lucked out here lmfao

6.9" here! was around the same as most in moco prior to the squalls but i really got lucky with them. might push 7" or even 7.5" with the last squall heading towards me

0.5" after the squall in 30 minutes, and i wasn't even the brunt of it! 1-2" per hour rates in that fs

6.1" here in Germantown with moderate snow from the squalls

Just now, snowmagnet said:

We had well over 6 " in Jan 2022...

i got 2.4" in jan 3 2022 and 5.5" in jan 7 2022. haven't had a 6"+ event in a while so

5.1" now with 0.6-0.8" per hour rates right now. it's rippinggg

really coming down in gtown again

4.5" of snow in Germantown. 0.3" of snow in the past 30 minutes

4" in germantown! 3.95" to be exact

Just now, Bob Chill said:

No model had me anywhere near 3" b4 7am. This is sick 

i think this is also bc it came in faster but modeled, but yeah this WAA thump was sm heftier than predicted lmao. never was predicted to come close to 1.25" per hour rates

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

HoCo-MoCo death band like the good ol' days

it's awesome here! 3.6" of snow and 0.55" of new snow in the past 30 min)

HRRR has a lot of moco pushing 6" including the 2-3" that's already fallen! personally i haven't gotten a 6"+ event since 2019 so this would be awesome

this is epic lmao

additional snow without the squalls ^

would subtract the additional snow from this map though because we've already seen this snow fall:

3" on top of the snow that has already fallen would be crazy tbh

HRRR still has 1-4" of additional snow for most of us. will post the map in a second