AtlanticWx

for fun, i did an analysis of the snow events we've lost due to climate change. the results were pretty surprising, but it wasn't as high as i thought it'd be. still alarming -- we're losing an average of ~1.1 snow events per year. 

ICON would've snowed too damn, what made the 0z models change sm? sampling?

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do you believe if we had a neutral or slightly positive PDO phase this winter, things would have been different? Do you think we will ever see a +PDO again? It seems like a latch key for any decent snow chances in these parts.

ofc we'll see a +PDO again, it's a decadal oscillation so it usually flips every ~10 years or so

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I hear what you’re saying. Even in a great pattern, and even if we have plenty of cold air, we still wouldn’t expect to get a hit with every storm. Take the 1980s for example, it was plenty cold but many storms were misses, suppressed, or badly timed that we got rain or sleet. In those cases, cold air wasn’t a problem. Something else was. Now? Cold air is sorely lacking after the canada torch and in this specific case, we DO need 10,000 things to come together right for it to snow. 

Maybe later in the season cold air will be more abundant and we’d only need a few more things to go right.

And by the way, we already got snow in a bad pattern this season. Dec 10th, I believe. 

exactly, like AGW is happening fast but i feel like especially in the forums it's exaggerated for how much of an effect it has. it still can snow, like on dec 11 when we got a T-3" area wide storm when we expected nothing in a pretty horrible pattern because it just came together perfectly

i think while a lot of the snowlessness recently has to do w AGW & its effects, i also think its just really bad luck along w the -PDO worsening everything since 2016

i don't really get the sentiment across all the forums for canceling winter anyway. the mid point for major storms in ninos like these in the mid atlantic is early february. 75% of winter hasn't even started based off major storms by january 20th. we're fine

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That’s slightly better than yesterday but still garbage. That isn’t a nao block it’s a WAR that extends into the nao domain. We’re on the eastern edge of the trough with no mechanism to stop any amplified wave from cutting. We could hope for a progressive wave but any strong storm would be rain. 

wasn't this expected? mjo forcing is supposed to go into MC around this time isn't it? we're not in a nina, i don't really get the worry about some immovable SE ridge

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Gettin' close... and has support from the canadian

euro has an interior storm for this fwiw, i honestly like euro's progression altogether because it's really close to a good snowstorm on jan 7th. pretty nice look where all we're relying on is a single shortwave to go negative, and there being cold ofc

all ensembles have trended colder in the long range. i suspect this is because of the trend away from the SSW and probably a weaker pass thru 4-5-6 MJO wise which ends up reducing the early signs of our SSW (like EC ridging). If these trends continue, we should be in the game for all of january 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, as long as you cleared it…. Lol!

Just because it’s Christmas…

kuchera is even more LMAOO, it's like 5-6" extra bc it's that cold

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow what a flip by one of our most optimistic Mets

isn't more NS a good thing?

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not quite ready to say I’d be surprised if we’re totally skunked through say January 10, but we’re heading in that direction. 

lots of double negatives here, so you'll be surprised if we don't get something between now and january 10th?

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over us and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours. 

fwiw i think the sub 540 rain clipper is j because of all the pac puke still lingering around, but also j AGW yeah

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Discount P27 which is in the fluke in the first 7 days.  12Z GEFS.

j wanna reiterate it's not all about the members that show a big hit over us. over 50% of the members either have a hit over us or a hit south of us

locked and loaded pattern on all ensembles. when was the last time we had a 2"+ mean on all the ensembles where all the snow falls ~9 days out or further?

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a legitimately excellent look. I hope //this// type of feature continue to show. That's how you win. I want to see tracks laid down and see one light to moderate snow event after another come through. Unless we can score a 2010 scenario, I'd rather we avoid some big event that blows the pattern up for weeks on end. No one and done for me.

this is super weenie but i think the pattern progression of this winter will probably go to a potentially snowy pattern in early january (i think the cap from this pattern could be 12" honestly), and then we have a slight warm up mid jan with a light snow event and then late january to february would be our big dog potential

i dont wanna jinx anything but this winter is for sure looking good at this point

this pattern looks really interesting. most interesting pattern we've had since jan 2022?

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol

i really doubt we get more than transient +NAO periods like this one bc of how persistent the -NAO has been since the end of last winter and the brewing possible SSW

on a side note, how are the 1" stats looking like that we used in november for the state of this winter or whatever

like the we need to reach 1" by this date stats

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

4am update

32 degrees still light to moderate snow. Had just under 4”

 

 

wonder what the list of 4" before december 11 for ninos looks like there

1.25-2" here. msor common measurement was like 1.6" tho. still not done snowung

32.7/31.5 here in germantown. dumping snow, maybe i could squeeze out half an inch or maybe an inch if we're generous? idk.

what an over performer lmao

.1"  here in Germantown, MD. Dumping snow with another band on the way. Maybe i can squeeze out a quarter inch

1 minute ago, 300 square feet said:

Snowing like crazy now in Reston. Flakes the size of pomegranates. 33.2

these flakes are humongous, like 2-3" wide lmao

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Similar elevation yeah, but you’re a couple degrees colder than where I am. PSW site shows mostly 33 there, but 35 here

damn that sucks i'm sorry, i remember yall were way colder than us initially for the most part until around 11

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think this is a case of the haves and have nots. You’re in the former category. Happy for you. 

I think I’m just too warm down here. Will give it another 15-20 min then gonna bail for the night if it doesn’t flip by then. Someone else will have to measure in Ashburn if not me

aren't we at the same elevation tho? i'm not sure why you aren't ripping snow, i'm at 350' in s germantown