Stormchaserchuck1

And May was even the most -PNA on record for May. The -PDO correlation has been carrying for a long time, even when it correlated more with the N. Pacific pattern than a +1.8c El Nino last Winter.

Nov 1-15: +45 days Nov 15-30: +40 days Dec 1-15: +35 days Dec 15-30: +30 days Jan 1-15: +25 days Jan 15-30: +25 days Feb 1-15: +20 days Feb 15-28: +20 days March 1-15: +15 days March 15-30: +15 days

Yeah, I'm hopeful that we can get some -EPO this Winter. They usually don't last for more than a few days, but when we had -epo last Winter, Kansas City had a wind chill of -35F! It is definitely still possible to see big time Winter cold..

We had a RNA block make it past +600dm in Dec 2021! Because of how we started seeing big RNA anomalies in Feb-March 2009, then it picked up over time in the same months, I'm thinking RNA-December is a new trend that is also picking up..

Interesting.. I mean in good Winter's, the pattern just goes crazy cold in the preceding Fall's. I think this was the case in 95-96, too.. Big time +PNA or -EPO. People have also done research making December a hot month for the following Winter.. this is more common sense stuff though, cold begets cold, warm begets warm. It seems to be intensified for the last 30 years though.

We still had a very -PDO pattern in Sept 2013.. that's what I'm referring to. But when the pattern doesn't change in the Fall's of those -PDO's, it usually carries into the Winter.. SSTs are more secondary to the atmospheric pattern though.

You'll find that October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation to the Winter's NAO state.. so it may be a backwards way of doing things, but if we are expecting a +nao Winter, I would look for a -NAO October. And because of what's been correlating globally, I would say watch out for a -PNA and maybe +EPO pattern in October too.

-PDO's strongly correlate to a warm Fall, so I would be surprised if we saw "an early Winter". But for years like 13-14 and 02-03, the Pacific pattern really changed in the preceding Sept/Oct, so you'll have to look for that..

I've observed by looking at models every day for the last 5 years. You can see it on daily climate composites, but you'll have to look at it day-by-day, the correlation picked up in Winter 2018-19 and after. It's about a 0.40 correlation since 2019 (+pna/-epo during or around +nao, and -pna/+epo at or around -nao), and 0.25 to 0.30 since 2013.

Look at this +NAO (again)! 2024 has been the year of +NAO's. I think this is our 8th bout, after having a total of 3 in the last 4 years.

The interesting thing is that the WPO does have a tendency to reverse to a slight -EPO signal. This is the wild card variable to a warmer Winter in the NE/Great Lakes. Dec-Jul 2023-24 was among the most +WPO times on record. This is 8 months before (notice the slight -epo) And this is 8 months after Before again- So there is a little bit of a tendency for the +WPO to reverse for the cold season. This also goes along with with the slight -epo/+nao correlation that has been occurring since 2013. -EPO patterns last 7-12 days, so it's very possible that we will get some cold shots in the midst of a warmer Winter.

Things like the PDO and NAO will probably be on top of the list of known drivers. The interesting thing is, the roll-forwards I have been doing never showed a La Nina map, except for maybe February, with the warmest Winter temp anomalies always being in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

This is the problem with La Nina though Maybe the enhanced trades models are predicting will deepen the subsurface again, but without the SOI really catching up, it's possible that the deeply negative subsurface we saw before will not able to sustain itself through the Fall and Winter.

Here are the 7 highest Natural Gas years since 1995 We are currently (August) #2 lowest, since 1995, behind only 1998 [98-99] (2.1 vs 1.8). But the Crude Oil/NG spread (which takes out things like inflation) is the lowest right now for August all-time.

Natural Gas is also really low right now.. lower even than last year. Since 1995, these are the 5 matching years to what we have so far The Winter H5 map is a really strong signal. 2.12.. Last year at this time it was 2.5, and last year even qualifies as a top 5 lowest. If you think it's going to be a cold Winter buy up those Natural Gas Futures!

Minus means "opposite". Since the satellite data goes back only 75 years, it gives more examples. You are basically looking at a core reading, and focusing also on the opposite reading over that area, and what it produced. Now averages may not always be perfect, so there is some lesser value in the method, but when you get both sides of a signal giving a strong roll forward, you know you have something with higher confidence than just the few matching examples.

Look at how muted the PDO is here in this composite of Strong ENSO events, based around the region along the equator where the coldest waters usually are. Looking back, El Nino and -PDO was the easiest call ever last Winter (because they aren't necessarily that correlated).. the combo put the core ridge in N. America exactly where it happened. I think raindancewx has mentioned this in the past. PDO's will also feedback to more west-based events, historically. I have also seen some evidence that when subsurface ENSO waves don't translate to the surface, in +years time the PDO will match (-pdo to warm subsurface waves and +pdo to cold subsurface waves). That makes some sense, because the two things happen at matching longitudes. The data is also somewhat limited here.

1959 (59-60) 1963 (63-64) 1965 (65-66) 1978 (78-79) 1994 (94-95) 1996 (96-97) 2003 (03-04) 2004 (04-05) 2009 (09-10) 2014 (14-15)

Maybe it becomes a borderline Cat 4. It looks very nice on satellite. I think Cat 3 is a given.

+AO looks to continue at least through the end of August There is a window for recurve in there, but the GOM seems most at risk by potential systems.

Yeah, peak cold waters are at 125W to 100W.. so that's where I would say the target area would be. La Nina is a cold weather pattern. -PDO is a warm weather pattern.

So.. we had a record N. American ridge December 2023 through August 3rd. I went through the entire dataset, and found 20 top analog, which matched the signal general: Here's what they look like rolled-forward... November: December: January: February: Nov-Feb Total: The February map having +5-6F temps for 20 analogs (+ and -), 20/75 of the whole dataset is pretty strong. You can see the progression into a SE ridge historically.

Yeah, PDO is about -3 right now. A short time ago, it went to the lowest monthly reading since 1954. I've found the PDO has the strongest yearly correlation with the Fall pattern (Sept-Nov), holding a >0.6 correlation in NW Canada! (That's usually a warm US composite).

These are the good ones I like to use. Monthly climate composites: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Daily climate composites: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ Correlation composites (correlate any index and any time period): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ US climate division data: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ Put a (-) in front of years to do an opposite map.

I think that what we are seeing is an over-active mid-latitude High pressure, giving us a lot of La Nina events, vs something that is "organic". That would explain the +WPO tendency too, and the Southern Hemisphere's version of it. A "true La Nina" should be east-based, like we saw with this Super Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24. I think that because the PDO is so negative (probably around -3 right now), a lot of the seasonal climate models are pushing for more of a west-based La Nina, where I'm saying if it was an organic new event, and independent of the mid-latitude cell, it should stay east-based. Otherwise, your forecast for a -PDO is the same as this coming La Nina.