Stormchaserchuck1

It was a west-based Nina though. 1=1. You can't throw it out unless something else that is happen doesn't match. In this case I'm using ENSO, because the La Nina has come relatively late, and the SOI is running positive, etc.. Winter trend though has been for +PNA, so we'll see how that goes.

That Pacific pattern is evolving about the same though.. give it a day or two and the trough will lift out.

We actually have a good West-based La Nina going I went back to 1998, and found 14 analogs to the West-based La Nina event. Here is what they showed for the following March US Temps: 500mb... the important part is the N. pacific pattern: Matches the current LR GEFS over the Pacific.. 384hr

EPO region doesn't have as much ridging. I'm basing this more on the 06z GFS ensembles, and that's really the first run with a substantial difference, so maybe it will mean more if it holds later on today..

I've seen some very cold airmasses bust high on snow totals.. not lately though.

Yeah. 6z GEFS is developing a monster Aleutian high at Days 14-15, but it did that 2-3 weeks ago and it didn't verify, so let's see if the trend of the Winter continues (for a better Pacific pattern)..

Surprised LWX is keeping WWA's up for Baltimore and DC.. Hrr and RAP have been consistently showing nothing all night, maybe flurries.

Yeah, they just backed way off of it. It looks like a 2-3 day -EPO period. +PNA/-EPO has been correlating with +NAO since 2013 at a 0.40 correlation, I wish I would have kept that thought in Winter forecast, because that's what we're seeing! The Atlantic side neutralize a weakly favorable Pacific, as the MJO passes through favorable phases.. +QBO/Weak Nina are keeping 10mb cold, and that is making it really hard for any -AO/-NAO to sustain this Winter.

Models got rid of the -EPO dominated pattern. How fast things can change.. +NAO looks like the biggest constant of the next 15 days. By Days 14-15 they are trying to develop a strong Aleutian ridge, but that hasn't held already this Winter so let's see how we progress, but it's not a real cold pattern looking ahead after the next few days..

Really nice -EPO on 0z GEFS Feb 26 - March 5. -EPO/+NAO has the following correlation in the Mid Atlantic: Temps: -0.2/1 Precip: +0.3/1

Odds of a persistently cold Winter like this are honestly something like 1/10.

When looking at medium/long term guidance... realize that the H5 anomaly for our biggest storms, or 8"+ storms, has just as strong of an anomaly over the eastern Pacific, 50/50 low region, and west-based -NAO (extending toward the Hudson Bay)... I was pointing out that we only had 1/3 areas for this storm, and just having a trough under a block without Pacific or Atlantic help leads to more margin of error as you progress toward the event. Those 3 other N. Hemisphere anomalies are a big deal for us getting a major snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Keep it in mind. We could have done it for this storm, but it was more of a threading the needle situation.

lol I see a lot of -PNA in our future Actually maybe this is the kind of pattern that will stick around next Winter. Lately they have been coming in pairs..

lol 1/50 chance.. run this through 50 times at it goes 8"+ once? Maybe not, but I have seen -AO come north at the last minute. Maybe a 0.5% chance.

Jan 25, 2000 had a similar arctic block as this.. remember, the AO is about -5 right now. When it's this cold, Im currently at 19F, storms do have a higher percentage to bust high.

18z GEFS drops blue's over us 4 times in the medium-long range https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html I mean, it might snow, but I wouldn't say anything too significant I guess. Let's also see if it holds. -EPO is a good pattern, showing up at Days 9-15.

I probably wouldn't make any snow calls, but it is going to be hard to warm up much.

-AO popping back on models (Arctic circle). Transitions to -EPO. We also have +PNA because of the MJO. This Winter has wanted to stay cold.

A pretty explainable sequence... A Scandinavia/NW Russia block happened, registering over +5820dm in mid-Winter. That area, especially Scandinavia is a loading pattern for -AO.. That -AO took. And is now -5! Due in part to +QBO, the AO is now expected to rise back to +2.5 That is a +7.5 index move in less 1 week! +QBO coupled with Weak Nina favors a cold 10mb, which goes with +AO at a Day+0 correlation. Due in part because of the record QBO, the AO is racing back to positive, and will be one of the most extreme short term moves on record [CPC].

I only had 10" and my average is 30". Don't know how that average is so high, but I did have 125" in 02-03. It also did snow flurry more 19 times this Winter.

Yeah an above average temp pattern looks highly probable for Texas in early March with those upper latitude patterns. Save your money up! The La Nina is still holding on and that means the Midwest could have an active tornado season this Spring, too.

18z GEFS has a real warm pattern setting up at h384, early March.. early Spring-like if it holds with -PNA and +NAO

03z SREF

Yeah it's amazing that models can miss things like that at that range, but I've seen it a number of the times in the last few years. N. Hemisphere larger 500mb pattern likely wins again, I was saying to see a deep coastal low riding up from the Gulf we probably need a NE Pacific trough, which is a actually a weak high pressure right now, and goes with what you guys are saying about how hard it is to a MECS in La Nina.. the pattern is actually a +NOI, or +NPH (North Pacific High), which is in part a circulation of La Nina. https://ibb.co/DfGZyQjg https://ibb.co/gLrqM6cz I wouldn't be surprised if Richmond may have p-type issues honestly.

Marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow.