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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another check, 1,2,3 pattern. https://ibb.co/bWvSWz8 A lot of volatility still in the overall pattern.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    The answer to drought is more water.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll just say it, someone probably did mushrooms. The odds of it only over a city (looking at radar totals) are like 1/1000. If not now, then another point in time. [matter of factly lol]
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like that Nino 1+2 and the rest of ENSO have been disconnected a lot since year 2000. that spells more max ENSO potential I think
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    So what.. the global temp is +0.5c warmer than those years.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino struggling but we did pass the "random point barrier" where it's odds increase (for example)from 1-5 to 1-100, so we'll probably have a Weak to Moderate El Nino.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    These cloudless days really accelerate drought, it seems. It's like time is accelerated x1.618
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, it's hitting this 2013-after timetrend and not trending -NAO anymore. Definite cap in place it seems.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA is shifting today to more of a +pna pattern. The western subsurface is warming again, getting close to +4c. This is anomaly because most times in developing Nino's, the western subsurface starts cooling. Higher chance for a 2 year event as of now imo. Again, my research says maybe 4 Winter's of +PNA/el nino-correlation, taking us to 26-27.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    We shift patterns in the next 1-2 days. It has the feel of March, though, where 2012 wasn't going away as an analog. I think we will be back to above average into May. I can already see signs of it on D15-16 models.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Kind of see this a lot now.. April the new May, 2 weeks ahead. I'm really curious to see how these correlations go as the El Nino matures, if it matures.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    How stupid they were that the world was falling away from me, when I did not do science research, i.e. weather
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    -nao, -ao, -pna, which holds more weight? https://ibb.co/QYFCMkG (Nao has also been anti-thesis for about 10 years now, which means watch out for pacific patterns forming just based on opposite conditions of normal nao state.)
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -NAO event Days 4-15. If I know anything, we'll gravitate toward more average - above average if the -NAO holds closer
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/Ttxr54C That's a pretty wicked cold pattern. I wonder if the 1) -NAO will stop trending since that has been the trend since 2013. 2) If the +PNA takes over the current -WP projected (ENSO subsurface warm favors more +pna).
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    On really a nothing pattern too. Meaning, we could be much more favorable for warmth potentially. It's no surprise it's going to cool off soonafter. Overall tendencies are not changing any.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, it's really trended toward -NAO. Not too much or no snow.. My latest day with snow is May 2nd.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    09-10 3 blizzards melted in 3 days, each time. mid 30s, it was ridiculous. We need heavy cloud cover these days (I hate 09-10). I'm saying we are really amped for a big storm, but the "nothing but GOA giving us snow" is really a snow drought pattern.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's that pattern again. -WPO and -NAO, and SE ridge and SW High pressure. https://ibb.co/bvWbJ7V That's why I think we are more likely to have a Winter like 15-16 or 09-10 vs 02-03 or 95-96 (1 storm vs many).
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would definitely expect +PNA to even this out... We have been in this +/- swing thing for a while.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    By looking at your posts, I can gather we could be looking at a 2 year El Nino event (variation differences since 2007/8 or 13)(unpredictability)? I have a +PNA signal for the next 4 Winters general/combined..
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go.. you can better confirm El Nino event with this pattern in place. Looking at the correlation maps, PNA oppositely correlates Feb - maybe mid-April then it's +correlation so not a big variation event, the current -PNA maybe https://ibb.co/H259JXG
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice +PNA too https://ibb.co/H259JXG This is what you want to see if you want next Winter to be good.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Kind of a massive little -AO here at end of April
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