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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -PNA, 594dm block ~7/14. These correlate with a cooler central-subsurface. After a series of +pna's, I wonder if this is evening out, giving less credence to El Nino effecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. It may seem like I'm doing heavy play-by-play, but there are some strong constants right now in the global pattern that I would like to see break.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some rain with 2nd cluster of clouds. Areas that didn't see so much so far might do better tomorrow. I like this front moving across the Midwest ~7/8.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some booms to my SSE (Harford county), nice building cumulus, partly sunny. It just rained 3 hours ago. We are drought busting like crazy. For now on, take months of below average rainfall as instability in the Spring/Summer. Although, if it wasn't El Nino, I don't know that we would be getting this.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    7-7/8 looks interesting with a trough cutting into/through the midwest.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 years prior to 57-58, we had the most negative monthly PDO on record until last year. It was a transition time/event break point.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Global SSTs, chicken and egg. I do know that when a warm/cold front move by, the SSTs warm/cool thereafter. ENSO Is SST, but I wouldn't put much weight on other areas unless it's extreme, or a deviation from upper level pattern.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 year -ENSO followed by 2-year +ENSO, 4th year being an El Nino, also includes 02-03 and 14-15. (4) years since 1950 forward and backward: 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, and 14-15, not a bad list of years if I'm right about our continuation probability next year. edit: 76-77 qualifies and minus 54-55. That's a lot of weak events though. You might want to phase out the Weak Nino's. 86-87 and 14-15 are El Nino, -QBO matches out of the list.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've found 1957-8 and 1986-7 could be good Winter analogs, Both were the start of 2 year El Nino's, which I see as a possibility if this one doesn't go too strong (it's about potential energy). They also both came off 3-year La Nina/-Neutral.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another beautiful night, still, peaceful. orange moon. Love it after it rains
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    If the precip drought continues, we could be looking at the potential for some boomers going into the Winter (as that would signal it's a macro pattern).
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +AMO may be something that starts with 15 La Nina's/8 El Nino's, and have more El Nino's vs La Nina's at the end (if it's extended), I fail to see the strong correlation there.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    The N. Pacific has responded moderately, by giving us less -pna's, and a few +pna's recently, but D15 models show an Aleutian ridge, which could correlate with some subsurface cooling. If this continues through late July, I can't see us getting past a Moderate peak. https://ibb.co/7kGNKpG https://ibb.co/0j72JfM
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't too impressive, The Western region in recent La Nina's match what we are seeing in Nino 3.4, heading into July We have had these Kelvin waves in recent Springs, anyway Having warm subsurface starting the previous Oct-Nov has been my par for "what could have been a strong event".
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's beautiful outside.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Round 3 incoming. It had cooled off to the 60s around 6pm, now humid again with distant thunder.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a good example of the relative minimum's we are still experiencing at a time of global warming. This event remains uneven with the string of La Nina's, and global warming as a whole (if everything were to catch up).
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive lightning bolt shots just to my east. Edit: sirens then the storm cooled down.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cell to my south is really lighting up. Many flashes (1/1-2 seconds)
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have nice, smooth Mammatus clouds overhead in Bel Air, cell building to my south. Edit: some CC lightning next to a blue sky. Wish it were dark.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 2 El Nino's / -QBO's were 14-15 and 09-10, that's the 2 on record in the last 25 years. Last Winter was La Nina/ +QBO (opposite). Extend it to 1979 and you have 86-87 and 91-92. I've contested that a surface +NAO could work better for us these days than -NAO's, but that's another story.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we just don't have a large enough dataset. Single-digit number of years. I think a lot of Strong Nino's in the late 1800s, early 1900s were cold anyway. The pattern they always produce is a -NOI, which has to do with the North Pacific High (right off the west coast). It puts a trough there (and to the GOA). If you plot a NE Pacific Ocean trough, you have a trough over the east, but the 3 examples of Strong Nino's on record had extended 2nd wave ridges, from coast-to-coast, which I'm going to say is more of an anomaly.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    For reference, last Winter was Strong Nina/+QBO = 0 inches. Pretty awesome correlation. I even in the Fall said we would have an uncorrelating -NAO, given the previous 3 Nina/+QBO's, since 2008.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I could see us getting 30-60" next Winter, pretty easily. We have a -QBO too which really goes well with El Nino. I've always contested that he Stronger the Nino, the better.. Biggest fear is a 18-19 type of deal where the PNA correlates until Nov then the -PDO, or global -AAM enhances tendency for a SE ridge. You guys did fine in 13-14 and 14-15 so I wouldn't worry too much.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Years after a NAO event(s) doesn't correlate, the pattern [PNA] is uniform. I think a Strong Nino, even east-based, could put a mean trough over us.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    >+7c now in the subsurface of TAO/Triton maps. What I think is interesting is that the western subsurface has warmed back to +1c, when most of the Stronger El Nino years were colder in the western regions by now. A 2nd year Neutral/El nino could be more likely.
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