Stormchaserchuck1

Suppose to get up to 87F now on Monday.. no +NAO, +EPO any of that.. We've been free of "warm patterns" in the upper latitudes for a little while, and temps are still somewhat overperforming. 

Yeah, Natural Gas is really low right now, which means that the average NG trader is going for a warmer Winter at this point for the Great Lakes, NE-US, Europe, and Russia. (Down 10% today!)

Especially compared to Oil and Gasoline.. 

I did find that the correlation isn't very big until you pass the Summer-hot season. Maybe they think it will be a cooler Summer? I doubt it.. 

@40/70 Benchmark
The CPC came with +0.75 NAO for DJFM March, which was outside of my +0.54 SD range for NAO forecast, based on May-September N. Atlantic SSTs. But if you look at the actual maps, the SLP between Iceland and Azores (where the NAO is calculated) is a slightly negative or neutral NAO index reading for the Winter, which fits my forecast, which was near 0.0 in prediction.

On 4/10/2024 at 6:43 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Signs of a +EPO pattern around Apr 23-24. Above average temperature pattern if that verifies. It could occur +days

Not much of a +EPO warm pattern in verification

First signs of a La Nina-dominated -PNA pattern in the Pacific throughout the run in the medium/long range on today's 18z GEFS

First sign of a La Nina -PNA pattern on todays 18z GEFS

To be honest, money dominates and things like weather can be manipulated to fit peoples wallet. I've been heavily relying on Natural Gas futures.. which are currently at a record low near 1.6.. dim prospects for cold and snow next Winter. 

80dbz on that cell SW of York, PA. 

81F in Fallston. Hearing loud rumbles, was thinking it was some military testing or something, but it turns out there are strong thunderstorms to my north. 

Signs of a +EPO pattern around Apr 23-24. Above average temperature pattern if that verifies. It could occur +days

ENSO subusurface had backed away from the deep cold for a few days, now it's going back. -6c pool on the most recent TAO/Triton maps. Here is the progression over time. SSTs will likely catch up with the subsurface cold in the coming months.  

16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Isn't the Hurrell NAO method a bit better overall than the CPC's method? 

I don't know that they are the ones that developed the NAO originally, but it wasn't the CPC. NAO was defined in the 1950s/60s, I think, as sea-level pressure differences between ~the Azores islands and Iceland regions. 

Another thing to note is, since October, the Hadley Cell has been expanded north, all around the globe. 

In the Summer, those mid-latitude cells lift north. The past doesn't necessarily predict the future, but lack of deep troughs digging, coupled with normal La Nina pattern could potentially create a more favorable pattern for US hits. 

All this while SLP has been below normal:

https://ibb.co/KhfXCNz

Earth's precipitable water has been record highest, a whole 120% #2 analog 2015-16, for the Sept-Apr period (records go back to 1948).

https://ibb.co/cbLGHQV

That is interesting. We had a 4-contour Greenland block, but nothing rivaling the strength of even what we have seen the past few Winters.  There seems be a major disconnect between CPC's NAO numbers and what is occurring in the NAO area, measured by sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azore islands. This Winter came up with something like a +0.7 NAO for DJFM, but if you look at sea-level pressure and 500mb, it should have been measured negative. 

Either way, hopefully this is some sign that we will see more persistent -NAO's in coming cold seasons, as we had seen 41/46 +NAO Winter months, going back to 2013. and 16/16 of the NAO's >1.11 in the monthly's during that time were all positive. 16-0 since 2013. I think the larger reasoning is issues with CPC's measurements, but maybe the overall signal is turning around..

This storm/rain for the last 3 days is actually from a Stratosphere warming that occurred in March. It "downwelled" to a -NAO, and as that -NAO block lifted out, we got this storm underneath of it. 

It's actually not very far away from snow, 48F here. 

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a wake low spun through Baltimore through NE MD:

Check out the temp spike (Red Line), Wind gusts (blue lines), and pressure drop (black line), along with a brief spike in solar radiation from the clearing behind the low...probably from some brief subsidence.

A tree fell here. 

https://ibb.co/j5wb1Cs

Wow what a wind storm!

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

-PNA pattern starting to set in.  https://ibb.co/DVGmNdf

https://ibb.co/c1ws74X

I've researched this, the PNA is more sensitive to ENSO central-subsurface than any other ENSO measurement, including surface SSTs and the MEI, at 0-time. 

Really cold in the subsurface now. For comparison, this may rival the strongest subsurface anomalies we saw in this past El Nino. 

All time Hurricane tracks

East coast, US has been lowest relative to long term average, and vs Atlantic activity lately (since 2000).

The central-subsurface is cooling rapidly. 

https://ibb.co/SfXksss

We had an expanded Hadley Cell/N. America SE ridge since late January:

I've theorized that ENSO subsurface conditions have a stronger correlation to the N. Hemisphere pattern than the surface does at 0-time (not perfect, but more often than not, historically.. ). We had cold water move below the central-ENSO region during mid to late January... 

I made list of analogs matching this US Temp pattern, since the AMO went positive and PDO went negative ~1995. These transitioned from an east-based El Nino look in April, to a stronger La Nina by the following December.. (13 analogs):

Big US SE ridge pattern, extending up into Canada Jan 23 - March 14:

Hadley Cell extends north in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in April (analogs rolled forward).. 

A correlation to following Atlantic Hurricane season has been strong since 2012:

Positive analogs: 2023, 2020, 2017, 2012,  Average Storms for Positive analog seasons:  21.8 NS, 9.8 Hurricanes, 4.5 Major Hurricanes

Negative analogs: 2015, 2014,  Average Storms for Negative analog seasons: 9.5 NS, 5.0 Hurricanes, 2.0 Major Hurricanes

We may be headed for an above average Spring.. I know that's not saying much, but.. 

since the AMO went positive/PDO went negative ~1995 here are our top analogs to this composite since Jan 23rd:

Positive analogs: 2023, 2020, 2017, 2012, 2000, 1999, 1998

Negative analogs: 2015, 2014, 2007, 2003, 1996, 1995

^13 years since 1995... 

Roll-forward to April:

April through July:

CPC is now giving >80% chance of La Nina for peak Hurricane season

Climate models are keying in on possibly a transition to Strong La Nina later this year

The SE Atlantic Ocean is still very warm, as several countries in Africa have recently broken temperature records.