Stormchaserchuck1

Nice -PNA [-PDO] pattern for the next 15 days (12z GEFS). Maybe the La Nina is kicking into gear.. don't be surprised if temps bust too low over the next 2 weeks. 

This Winter has probably the strongest predictive signal from this range, given the expectation of oncoming La Nina (maybe Moderate strength), -PDO which has recently strengthened its -1 standing, probable +QBO, so La Nina/+QBO combo, which favors a stronger Winter 10mb Polar Vortex (we saw this combo in 22-23) - the correlation is +AO,  recent global temperature high temperatures and record highs. And +AMO has a slight SE-ridge correlation, the +AMO cycle is still peaking positive. Some have correlated the part of the solar cycle approaching the solar max with warmer temperatures, but I have found a weak correlation there.. 

On the other side, when I locally barely get out of the 40s on an early May day (yesterday), it's hard to imagine the potential isn't there for some Wintertime cold. Also, the -PNA has been weak so far in this La Nina cycle, and nothing like what we saw 2020-2023. ENSO has had, in my opinion, a higher than average correlation with the PNA over the last few decades, and we aren't going to see a fixed Wintertime PNA state 85% of the time like we have seen 1950-2020, given +ENSO. Last year the PNA was not really correlating with Stronger El Nino, and this carried over into the Wintertime.. something to watch.. 

It's not even that anything really special is happening.. The way we are easily beating these records since that 80* in January is pretty amazing. I think we on a macro-level are entering a time with less cloud cover, so maybe that's contributing, or will contribute in the future.. there was a time in February this year where we went 24/28 days with no clouds. 

I can see a warm Winter easily verifying. We need a major -EPO to break through, and right now there are no signs of that in the global pattern evolution: it's a little more stagnant, allowing things like the -PDO to impact, and that has a slight +epo correlation. 

Really nice -PDO pattern in the N. Pacific for the next 15 days (as per 18z GEFS). 

Fitting the La Nina evolution pretty well. 

With temperatures now expected to get into the upper 80s tomorrow, that will make 5 straight days with 80+ high temperatures, with no major index pattern present (+nao, +epo, etc..) - pretty impressive. I think we are headed for a hotter Summer. 

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.2

BOS: +2.8

ORD: +4.0

ATL: +3.0

IAH: +2.4

DEN: +1.6

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +0.0

Suppose to get up to 87F now on Monday.. no +NAO, +EPO any of that.. We've been free of "warm patterns" in the upper latitudes for a little while, and temps are still somewhat overperforming. 

Yeah, Natural Gas is really low right now, which means that the average NG trader is going for a warmer Winter at this point for the Great Lakes, NE-US, Europe, and Russia. (Down 10% today!)

Especially compared to Oil and Gasoline.. 

I did find that the correlation isn't very big until you pass the Summer-hot season. Maybe they think it will be a cooler Summer? I doubt it.. 

@40/70 Benchmark
The CPC came with +0.75 NAO for DJFM March, which was outside of my +0.54 SD range for NAO forecast, based on May-September N. Atlantic SSTs. But if you look at the actual maps, the SLP between Iceland and Azores (where the NAO is calculated) is a slightly negative or neutral NAO index reading for the Winter, which fits my forecast, which was near 0.0 in prediction.

On 4/10/2024 at 6:43 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Signs of a +EPO pattern around Apr 23-24. Above average temperature pattern if that verifies. It could occur +days

Not much of a +EPO warm pattern in verification

First signs of a La Nina-dominated -PNA pattern in the Pacific throughout the run in the medium/long range on today's 18z GEFS

First sign of a La Nina -PNA pattern on todays 18z GEFS

To be honest, money dominates and things like weather can be manipulated to fit peoples wallet. I've been heavily relying on Natural Gas futures.. which are currently at a record low near 1.6.. dim prospects for cold and snow next Winter. 

80dbz on that cell SW of York, PA. 

81F in Fallston. Hearing loud rumbles, was thinking it was some military testing or something, but it turns out there are strong thunderstorms to my north. 

Signs of a +EPO pattern around Apr 23-24. Above average temperature pattern if that verifies. It could occur +days

ENSO subusurface had backed away from the deep cold for a few days, now it's going back. -6c pool on the most recent TAO/Triton maps. Here is the progression over time. SSTs will likely catch up with the subsurface cold in the coming months.  

16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Isn't the Hurrell NAO method a bit better overall than the CPC's method? 

I don't know that they are the ones that developed the NAO originally, but it wasn't the CPC. NAO was defined in the 1950s/60s, I think, as sea-level pressure differences between ~the Azores islands and Iceland regions. 

Another thing to note is, since October, the Hadley Cell has been expanded north, all around the globe. 

In the Summer, those mid-latitude cells lift north. The past doesn't necessarily predict the future, but lack of deep troughs digging, coupled with normal La Nina pattern could potentially create a more favorable pattern for US hits. 

All this while SLP has been below normal:

https://ibb.co/KhfXCNz

Earth's precipitable water has been record highest, a whole 120% #2 analog 2015-16, for the Sept-Apr period (records go back to 1948).

https://ibb.co/cbLGHQV

That is interesting. We had a 4-contour Greenland block, but nothing rivaling the strength of even what we have seen the past few Winters.  There seems be a major disconnect between CPC's NAO numbers and what is occurring in the NAO area, measured by sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azore islands. This Winter came up with something like a +0.7 NAO for DJFM, but if you look at sea-level pressure and 500mb, it should have been measured negative. 

Either way, hopefully this is some sign that we will see more persistent -NAO's in coming cold seasons, as we had seen 41/46 +NAO Winter months, going back to 2013. and 16/16 of the NAO's >1.11 in the monthly's during that time were all positive. 16-0 since 2013. I think the larger reasoning is issues with CPC's measurements, but maybe the overall signal is turning around..

This storm/rain for the last 3 days is actually from a Stratosphere warming that occurred in March. It "downwelled" to a -NAO, and as that -NAO block lifted out, we got this storm underneath of it. 

It's actually not very far away from snow, 48F here. 

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a wake low spun through Baltimore through NE MD:

Check out the temp spike (Red Line), Wind gusts (blue lines), and pressure drop (black line), along with a brief spike in solar radiation from the clearing behind the low...probably from some brief subsidence.

A tree fell here. 

https://ibb.co/j5wb1Cs

Wow what a wind storm!

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

-PNA pattern starting to set in.  https://ibb.co/DVGmNdf

https://ibb.co/c1ws74X

I've researched this, the PNA is more sensitive to ENSO central-subsurface than any other ENSO measurement, including surface SSTs and the MEI, at 0-time.