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Stormchaserchuck1

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Posts posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    +NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

    Jan 10 - Feb 6, 2025 actually had variations of a -PNA in the H5 .. so maybe that's our window, right in the middle of Winter. In the mid-atlantic, our biggest snowstorms occur with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, so I would take the opposite of this. 

    1-62.gif

    • Like 2
  2. 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    +NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

    Feb-March has had ridiculous -PNA for an 8-year period

    2aaa-18.png

    That's >+100dm for a 2-consecutive month period for 8-consecutive years. Going back through all the maps to 1948, the number 2 greatest anomaly covering 2-months in 8-years didn't even make it to +70dm.. so we've broken that record in the maps by >140%. 

    That's one of those things were the trend forward is so strong, I don't even think there is an evening out.. it's like, watch to see if there is a -PNA in Feb-March again next year with no major chance for +PNA without an El Nino or something in that time period. Once the coldest day of the year passes, Jan 27th, there has been a huge tendency for the last 8 years to go -pna afterward. Something to watch this year. 

  3. 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Where I agree with Chris is I do think that this latest round of global warming has augmented and probably protracted this pattern...I do think there is some level of feedback there.

    Siberia has been below average 2017-2025.. and they already average like -40F so yeah. Really surprisingly actually to have any area in the Northern Hemisphere that has been below average for a 9-year period.. but it goes a little bit toward the crappy Winter's in the eastern US. It's not always going to be below average there.. 

    • Like 1
  4. Last Summer was hot, but before then, it wasn't anything major.. mostly the higher averages were from min's. The Winter has been ridiculously -PNA and a little +WPO going a long way to extend that SE ridge north. Even them out and it's +3F over 50 years, there have been some really cold periods too. I just think there is too much focus on explainable things acting like it's a whole globe warming trend. Some of these fluctuation patterns have been in fluctuation during the Winter.. now 80% of the months of the whole year since 2013 have been above average.. so I'll consider that we realistically have a 20% chance of having a cold Winter month. But it's not some global happening that pollution is causing a SE ridge, and not over Montana. 

    • Like 1
  5. 2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

    I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

    I agree with you. I actually did a study a few years back, finding that there was fluctuation year-to-year around patterns. I used this in 2022 to predict some things in advance actually. It's fluctuation around a base pattern, and last late Nov-Feb was "anomaly" of +PNA, so I think we have higher chances of fluxing back to -PNA over the same time next Winter, without major drivers like ENSO.. it's purely theoretical, but the method has been relevant for the past few years, for whatever reason. If we go 4,4,4,4 -2 one year, it's likely to go 4,4,4,4 6 over the same time in the following year. 

    • Like 1
  6. 39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    We can see how the 500mb patterns have changed during this -PDO interval in the 2020s. Now we get very strong Aleutian Ridges and weaker -PNA troughs out West. This goes to the PNA variability that has been experienced since 2019.

    So even with such strong -PDO values, we are getting more changes between +PNA and -PNA. We saw this last winter with the strong to record +PNA for a La Niña. This was also the case with the 20-21 La Niña. Same for January 22.

    There has also been the tendency for a much stronger Southeast Ridge than was the case from the 50s into 70s. 

    While we have also seen some significant -PNA intervals like in December 2021, the long term trend against these fluctuations is for a more positive PNA. This -PDO era has been more defined by the record marine heatwaves from the Western to Central Pacific. And less of a cold pool formation off the West Coast. 

    But not as dramatic as the EA index with the record heatwaves in Europe. The rising heights near the Azores could also be contributing to the more +NAO even though we have seen Greenland blocking intervals.This has also been associated with the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland blocks.

    West-Pacific index looks like this in the Wintertime

    1-61.gif

    1A-97.gif

    It's the reason why the SE ridge has extended north to often link up with Greenland ridging, that and, NAO sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic has often been positive, which enforces a mid-latitude ridge from the US to Europe. 

    Taking out all the indexes, which are fluctuation patterns, and what they have produced in the weight of one direction over another, the global warming is actually only about +3F in the Winter for the last 50 years. (Maybe it's more as a year-to-year multiplier recently as the trend is more exponential in recent years).

  7. 2 hours ago, GaWx said:

    -The 23-24 season ONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.95 in NDJ:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

    -The 23-24 season RONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.50 in OND:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

    A lot of metrics weren't super positive for the 23-24 El Nino, but we did have major +SSTAs and the global precipitable water broke 15-16's record, as much as 20% greater than the #2 year on record.. so some parts of that El Nino were indeed strong. 

    • Like 1
  8. Well we squeaked out a 9th straight month of +SOI.. 

    2024 10    4.09
    2024 11    6.55
    2024 12   10.84
    2025  1    3.47
    2025  2    7.67
    2025  3    9.60
    2025  4    4.73
    2025  5    2.64
    2025  6    1.71

    July 2020 to Feb 2023 we had 32 straight months of +SOI.. so the long term phase here continues to be pretty solid positive. It's coinciding with the PDO over this time. 

    • Like 1
  9. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Oh...wait until Bluewave sees this post implying hope for the future :lol: He's going to come in with some tweet from a Japanesse nanna in the hills of nothern Japan bitching about how poor her onion crop is and tie it to death to NE US winters for all of eternity.

    It's pretty cool that they track cherry blossoms back 1000 years to year 1000, and it was actually getting later and later on average for 900 years (3 degree angle) until about 150 years ago. 

  10. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Yea, no great anticipation with that this season...I know where its headed based on solar. But I think we could steal a round or two of decent blocking early and late season based on QBO data.

    I can't wait until this phase changes.. there is so much record H5 occurring in the mid-latitudes.. rarely over the NAO or EPO or WPO... 

  11. 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Some of these seasons aren't that warm.....its heavily biased by years like 1982-1983, which really isn't relevent this season. It certainly gives pause for expecting a repeat of last season, but I would hang myself over it.

    It's minus the 1980s analogs. West coast was cold 10 years before the 91-20 average. Then it was drastically warm in the 5 year since then. That's the point.. the progression around the 91-20 base period in July.  

  12. I always get kind of lost looking back for the updated posts.. you might want to consider making a new post for every new data, projections and all. It's a little easier to navigate and we know when it's happening by seeing a new post in the thread. 

    I need to come back for the rest of the year in this contest! So far I'm performing lower than I thought I should. I used to go with the least popular numbers, but the scoring isn't per place, it's only deviations from values, so it's better to not go against the grain. 

  13. 48 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

    Training thunderstorms getting us good at home (Lancaster) second above average month so far but still down about 5" on the year.

    @Stormchaserchuck1

    Really a great thunderstorm day! There were big lightning bolts for a long time close by, and I lost power for 3 hours. I was going to comment how earlier this morning it felt like Florida outside.. This thunderstorm season has been one of the better ones in several years. :) Everything turned green here in March and April.. I don't see any sign of drought. I realize we were below average for like 10 months in a row, but that has broken fast this Spring, in my opinion. Follows the trend that we have seen since 2002: Every time a developing drought occurs, we follow it with much above average precip in the eastern 1/2 of the US. 

  14. 24 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

    I mean this is just an anthropocene signal, no? Looks like something a climate model would spit out with a cooling hole in July over the heavy agricultural areas due to the unnatural densities of corn and soybeans (and the resulting unnatural levels of evapotranspiration) and irrigation effects, enhanced warming over the arid west with rapid winter warming east of the Rockies.

    The jet stream has been shifting north in general, and that is how it has been playing out. The differences on the West coast in July between the 1980s and now are extreme, more extreme than any ENSO signal or anything like that. It seem to be a one directional change. Although there were some differences in the July pattern 2016-2020. I'm just highlighting how it's enhancing the trend this year, which could possibly mean the same thing that we've been moving through recently, going forward. 

    Phoenix is going to break 2013's high temp record today.. there's always a hope that something like 13-14 can develop, as that was part of the "new cycle"... really hot weather in the Southwest Summer-early Fall does correlate with some Winter -EPO/+PNA pattern.

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