Stormchaserchuck1

With the wind blowing, this evening felt colder than a lot of Winter days lately. 

13/7/4

DCA:  +1.6

NYC:  +1.8

BOS:  +2.0

ORD:  +0.8

ATL:  +0.6

IAH:  +0.7

DEN:  +2.5

PHX:  +2.7

SEA:  +1.0

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be very difficult in this much warmer climate for a 09-10 repeat during an El Niño. First, we get more Southeast Ridge link ups with the -NAOs during the 2020s. So New England wouldn’t have to worry about -NAO suppression and confluence like they had in 09-10. The STJ riding too far north would be more of a risk for mixed precipitation from Philly to Boston. Since a stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge would probably mean plenty of cold rain from DC to Philly. But I would still take my chances from around NYC Metro into Southern New England that at least one system would really connect for a major snowstorm.

I don't think so.. 09-10 was the most -NAO Winter on record, since the 1800s. Part of that is an elongated trough from the eastern US to Europe. I hear what you are saying, that a SE ridge has been happening for the last 10-15 years, but part of that is the NAO SLP not being negative. If the upper latitude pattern was the same (+PNA/-AO/-NAO), we would most definitely see snowstorms repeated again. You posted an Atlantic map of 09-10 a few pages back in the EA analysis.. Unless you are saying that type of Atlantic pattern is no longer possible? 

80% of months during the year above average.. so even without indices you can say it's 75-80%, but there are definitely climate phenomenon that have led to this snowfall drought. I think you are putting too much stock on the last 10 year wrt climate indices.

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is because the 2023-2024 El Nino was partially masked by and competing with the forcing from the WPAC warm pool, which wasn't present during 2015 and 2009. Warm ENSO episode(s) later this decade and into the early 2030s should herald a regime change....but if not, then we will know something is up.

Global warming should favor more high pressures, the problem is that the high pressures are happening at the mid-latitudes vs upper latitudes. I think we are still near a peak in the -PNA/-PDO.. it may take some time to wind down, but I do think something like a really active sun could create more low pressure systems (+PDO). The 2040s should be a really nice time with -NAO decadal and +PDO decadal, but by then the global temperature may have caught up. I don't see however how the warmth near Japan is global warming, it's not like they are giving off a lot of pollution. Maybe a slowing of ocean currents is warming the west side in the Pacific and Atlantic?  PDO has been recorded to have many swings, so for now you might say it is a cycle we are in. 

Daily PNA just hit the lowest since July 2017.. almost 8 years. And we even had a +600dm block in December 2021. 

These are the lowest daily readings since 2017:

Regarding Arctic ice melt.. I would say until we break past previous trend line (lower than all time record, by now actually much lower), we are going to be stuck in this -PNA/+NAO Wintertime pattern. Call it my intuition, but there seems to be a bit of a see-saw between melting the arctic ice and high latitude blocking in the cold season.  Not going lower has amped a ridge in the eastern US, Europe, and Japan. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Have you found any correlation between cold-ENSO and the QBO? I’ve read a few studies that correlate +QBO/cold-ENSO to poleward Aleutian ridging and -QBO/cold-ENSO to a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge

+QBO and cold-ENSO strongly favor cold Stratosphere 10mb. I came up with the ENSO/QBO correlation in 2008 and it has worked almost every Winter since.. but the Stratosphere doesn't always translate to 500mb/the surface. Last Winter is a good example, it was record breaking +QBO at 50mb I think, and it was one of the coldest Nov-Feb Stratosphere's on record. March 10mb actually has a near 0 correlation to the QBO state, and March ended up having a very warm Stratosphere. That Winter was pretty uniform in the Stratosphere, as far as ENSO/QBO goes. The Winter before was Strong El Nino/-QBO and we did have 4 Winter Stratosphere warmings (didn't quite make it to the surface that much though). 

There has been some tendency for -QBO and negative-ENSO to have cold December's, but we don't really have enough data to make that a strong conclusion.. I just remember on these boards in 2005 we were using the 1989 analog because of good -QBO/cold-ENSO and it worked out really well. 

Remember QBO is a Stratosphere index, 30,000+ feet up, so to correlate it with things like the Pacific Jet is hard because topographic features, and pressure patterns, effect the surface patterns more. Something like Asian Mountain Torque I would say is more important. 

Here's the cold season QBO-500mb correlation... nothing goes over 0.3 and the anomalies are spotty everywhere.. pretty random. I think it might work with other factors though.  HM is really good at describing the QBO interacting to become a surface variable. 

I mean.. I don't know.. this cold season-QBO correlation (below) isn't that bad in regard to how the index is measured: Goes with a +QBO favoring Stratosphere coolings and eventual +AO. Look at how it interacts with the mountains in Asia (low pressure above the Himalayas, high pressure below)

Beautiful morning, beautiful sunrise, pinks, purples, and blue-grey. Everything is green from all the rain

I think that as long as we keep repeating this Summer pattern of +AO, that has been so common since 2013, the Winter NAO will have a tendency to positive, and probably PNA-negative, WPO-positive as well. Big +AO on models through the 2nd week of June. This is the same pattern as the last 12 years:

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Most would be happy even getting a smaller snowfall version of 2009-2010. I wouldn’t even care if it was 60° a few days later.

Thanks for the roll back bluewave! The thing that I hated most about the 09-10 storms is that it warmed up in between them. I always fantasized a 6'+ stacked snowfall, but while close they did melt a lot in between. 

I think this is so interesting - I've talked before about ENSO subsurface trends, and how it correlates with the N. Hemisphere pattern more than ENSO SSTs, OLR, 850mb winds, etc. 

Now, we are currently getting a healthy Kelvin wave that has changed the central-ENSO-subsurface in a few weeks from -1c to about +2-3c. 

Now, we have a strong +AO - about as strong as it's going to get at this time of the year. I rolled that forward to the following Winter, and got an El Nino-like pattern of a warm December, followed by a cold February

The STJ pattern currently projected looks like El Nino for the next 3-4 weeks

All this while a strong Kelvin Wave is warming the central-ENSO-subsurface in now-time. I've said before that the effects of such a happening are immediate - see how these El Nino aspects are happening around this coherent wave?  It happens that way quite often. 

Strong +AO for the next 2 weeks should keep Arctic Summer Ice melt relatively below normal to start the season, compared to the last 15 years. Lots of cold 500mb anomalies over the Arctic circle. 

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.

All this stuff about the "Pacific firehose near Japan" is linked to the WPO, and positive phase of that index. 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely agree.....I am open to the idea of CC forcing that pattern, but as I have been saying...I would need to see it persist into the 2030s.

+WPO has been linked to Indian Ocean warming. Indian Ocean SST patterns may be decadal, although the long term trend is generally up. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like I have said to you before.....it's folly to generalize ENSO by intensity.....2009-2010 was a different breed than prototypical  stronger events...it was a full-fledged Modoki during an arc ending solar cycle just beyond solar min. That is a mid Atlantic wet dream....it's no mystery what it evolved in a favorable fashion.

Everyone and their mother was forecasting a blockbuster season that fall...it was obvious.

 

It was strong -QBO, too, which goes with El Nino for Stratosphere warming

7-day code red in the E. Pacific

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 -A pro met at (the former?) Maxar who I keep in touch with on occasion blamed the increased SE ridge tendency a few years ago on the disproportionately very warm western equatorial Pacific.

-Also, I’ve seen some others give a portion of the blame to the +AMO.

-Wasn’t GW closing in on +2.5 to +3.0 F after that big 2023 spike?

The AMO may have an imapact:

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

I don't know what the numbers are at 40N.. Maybe it is +3F. 

+WPO flexes the SE ridge further north when coupled with -PNA, and as Ray pointed out it has been positive every Winter but 1 since 16-17

I don't think that we are seeing more of a SE ridge because of global warming. I think that whatever the global temperature increase is divided by latitude is what that impact is.

I'm tired of global warming being blamed for the Winter SE ridge, especially during -AO/-NAO periods, when the Pacific has been in +WPO/-PNA. This map makes sense to me in regard to those 2 patterns and downstream effects. 

Global warming makes a +2F overall difference, but that's about it. It's not some unicorn pattern that is causing new things, like a more impactful SE ridge. There is meteorology involved, everything that happens has a reason. The global warming effects are global, but not localized. 

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?

That map is the SST profile May-July that leads the Winter WPO.. positive phase, although it has correlated with -PDO more so in the last 8 years. 

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

SOI is taking a dump fwiw.

Not according to this https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Maybe active, but that data says not hyperactive. In the far east Atlantic there is somewhat of a -NAO tripole.. Maybe enhancing Cape Verde area. 

Check this out Ray.. PDO and SSTs across the Tropical Pacific to Indian Ocean in May-July clearly lead it

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2021-2022 was the only -WPO winter since 2016-2017.

A big part of the "heatwave near Japan" has kept the WPO +

It doesn't just effect the PNA. 

^Clear Atlantic tripole there.  I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995

So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern