RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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I wouldn't start a thread either, as we're still pretty far out and even the "snowy" models have significant thermal issues that would likely significantly reduce accumulation, plus we've only really had one model suite (last night) with just about every model showing at least moderate accumulating snow (at 10:1 ratios). I'd want to see at least some consistency for another cycle or two, i.e., maybe after tonight's 0Z runs, which would put us about 5 days before the event is likely to start. Just my opinion and I'd absolutely defer to Walt on this.
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Yes, but not for 24+ hours
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Yeah, I'm 61 and still love the cold and snow and don't imagine that ever changing. I'm retired and am outside for several hours per day at least 5 days a week between disc golf, soccer, and doing little day trips with my wife. Obviously, someday I'll be less mobile, but until then I love getting outdoors.
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That's irrelevant with temps in the mid-30s Monday morning and highs in the mid-40s on Monday and then temps down into the upper 30s before any precip starts Monday night. Yes, ground will be above 32F, but not far above 32F.
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I'm astounded by how much snow/precip falls in such a short period on the 6Z GFS, with 2/3 of the snow for NYC metro falling from 4 to 7 am on 2/13 (night time is great for this marginal run), which is 6" or more for most in that 3-hour period and most of the rest falls in the next 3 hours. If we end up with a storm like this, we're talking knife's edge for any forecast, given surface temps, verbatim, for folks along 95 never go below 34F (so ratios likely are low, although the whole column is below 32F except for very near the surface and at high rates ratios might not be as bad as shown by Kuchera). Anyway, I know discussing thermal details at this point is a bit silly - it's just wild to see what is possible with this event, IMO...
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And just to whet people's appetites for the long range tracking marathon...
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Euro is heavy rain to heavy snow for most. Still 6+ days out, but the Euro/UK/GFS/CMC all show at least moderate snowfall for NYC Metro with less to the S/SW and of course if this continues to look good we'll eventually be worrying about how much rain/mix before the snow and ratios and melting and everything else, but the take home message is we actually have a decent shot at some snow.
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Nice, but still a week away...
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Nice to see a signal for a potential winter storm.
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Thanks, although wouldn't "all other cases" for Feb from 1975 to 2023 be about 1342 (28 days/Feb x 48 Feb's)?
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Fantastic - you're the best! That's roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place. One last question: can you share how many cases there were in total (although I guess that's 10% of 28 days/yr x 48 yrs or 10% of 1344 or 134 days of 2" in total for example, but I can't tell the number of cases for the specific conditions) and for the specific conditions and is this for NYC?
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The details don't really matter here, as those will change hugely in coming days - it's just cool to see a significant threat possibly (we all know this may disappear or fizzle) on the table to kick off the pattern change.
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Climo is only about 10-11" from the 2nd half of Feb onwards, so ~13" more isn't a ridiculous amount if this pattern ends up being as productive as many think it will be - not talking historic amounts, but certainly a few to several inches above climo doesn't seem crazy. We'll see soon, of course...
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Thanks for confirming those were temps in those regimes and that it was a typo on the PNA. Too bad there's not snow data for those regimes, since 95% of the poster on these boards are snow hounds and the $64K question for all of them is, what level of confidence do we have that the coming pattern will actually deliver at least normal snowfall, if not well above average snowfall and maybe even a KU storm. In their backyards. Will be interesting to watch it all unfold...
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Nick never said 15-23" more snow is coming. 15-23" was his winter forecast for NYC Metro (and the 95 corridor from Philly to CT, as per his map) and he's saying there's the potential for another ~15" of snow this winter and since most of that area has seen 2-8" of snow that would bring that area into his 15-23" seasonal forecast. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-2024-mid-winter-forecast
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Don - thanks, although I'm not 100% sure what your table is showing. Is that monthly average temp for both cities under the teleconnection/MJO conditions specified? If so, clearly those conditions lead to significantly colder temps (typically a >2F departure from the overall mean puts one into "colder than normal"). Also, is that supposed to be PNA+, not PNA-? And lastly, any data on snowfall under these conditions relative to normal? I would guess snowier than normal or else people wouldn't get so excited when patterns featuring these conditions develop, as it looks like they will soon. Thanks again. Also, it's amazing what data you're able to find and put together - it's like you have access to a database for all weather data from every city in a way that allows easy data extraction from queries - does that actually exist (and is it available to all)?
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But I want it now! Just kidding, that was my Veruca Salt imitation from Wonka. Don't sweat it too much, was hoping that might be something you wouldn't have to work too hard to get - but thanks, in advance, for anything you can find.
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Does there exist, anywhere, data on what a pattern like what is being forecast (generally, i.e., at least -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA and MJO in 8/1) might typically produce in winter in, say, the NE or maybe at least NYC Metro, especially in January and February? I know not all patterns are the same (ENSO state being a big variable), but just looking for whether anyone has done the work to determine this. Personally, I've tracked about 8 fairly similar patterns since 2016 and saw that all 8 verified for colder than normal temps and 5 verified for snowier than normal outcomes (one would expect random guessing to verify 2-3 out of 8) for the 2-3 week periods I was following (did this for New Brunswick and vs. above/normal/below for those two parameters vs. all seasons for the period in question), but that's a fairly small sample size and I didn't rigorously track the teleconnections beyond what was forecast about 8-10 days out. Would be cool to have a much larger, more accurate dataset to have some idea of the confidence of a pattern like this actually producing snow, in particular. @donsutherland1- any chance something like that exists? If anyone would know, I think it would be you...
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Not sure - at least on Pivotal, the weeklies are still only showing the twice a week runs - I thought maybe the rollout was delayed...
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Stumbled across this, from ECMWF, which I think people will like. Sounds like the increase in horizontal resolution of the ensemble forecast to the same resolution used in the operational model means there is no lower resolution "control" any more (meaning the "control" will now be the op), which has always been a bit of an issue. But the coolest part was seeing that the extended range ensemble will now run daily out to day 46 with 100 ensemble members; no more "weeklies." The fact that it'll run at 0Z will affect the sleep patterns of millions of weenies worldwide. In 2023 we will see a major upgrade to our forecasting system. The key change will be a significant increase in the horizontal resolution of our medium-range ensemble forecasts from 18 km to 9 km, bringing the 50‑member ensemble to the same level as our current high-resolution forecast. Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble. Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15, it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 100 members. Cycle 48r1 will be the first ECMWF forecast upgrade to be produced in our new data centre in Bologna, Italy. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/focus/2022/global-numerical-modelling-heart-ecmwfs-forecasts#:~:text=For example%2C ECMWF's high-resolution,the first operational weather forecasts.
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Hence my comment that it's probably a fantasy...
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And the GFS remains alone...
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This may wake a few folks up - probably a fantasy (and ratios would likely be bad for part one during the day on Sunday), but it's why we track, lol...
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Yeah, they slammed the door pretty hard on the hopes raised by the NAM and a bit by the GFS, although at this point, we can't know the outcome yet - but it sure would've been nice if we saw at least some consensus on a colder solution.
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Don - do you (or Walt or anyone else) know if the NBM continuously updates its maps (like snowfall, precip, etc.) as each model output is received, since the outputs come out for a suite over 3+ hours? I haven't notice it change much, though, during that time for past events and I can't imagine they have an "advance copy" of the output hours before we do.
