RU848789

Walt (or others) - would be interested in your take on 9/6 in the SNJ area adjacent to Philly, as our son is getting married there that day and hoping to do an outdoor ceremony (it's at a working farm) followed by an "upscale barn" reception. Not too worried about rain, as there is an enclosed space next to the barn if it rains, but would love it to not be hot and humid. Right now the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts look like normal to maybe a bit below normal in temps, but normal to above normal in precip. Obviously, those aren't predictions for a specific day, but I am happy to see no major heatwaves on the horizon and the last few deterministic model runs (GFS/Euor/CMC at least) show some significant rainfall on 9/4-5 clearing out for 9/6 with seasonable or below temps, but 9 days out we all know that that timing can change, but all things being equal, I'll take it for now. TIA.

Wow, tsunami warnings are up for most of the "Ring of Fire" around the Pacific, from a magnitude 8.8 earthquake about an hour ago off the coast of Kamchatka, Russia. It is feared that this could generate tsunami waves of up to 10 feet in parts of nearby Japan and Russia and perhaps several feet in places like Hawaii and elsewhere - even the US West Coast and Alaska are under tsunami alerts. This was a very powerful earthquake and, unfortunately, tsunami predictions aren't particularly accurate. Back in 2004, people in Indonesia certainly didn't expect the 150 foot tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands from a 9.2 magnitude earthquake; similarly in 2011, parts of Japan didn't expect tsunami waves of 50-100+ feet from a 9.0 earthquake (including at the Fukushima nuclear reactor, where 50' waves inundated and destroyed the facility, leading to partial reactor meltdowns and release of radioactivity). Hopefully people at risk are taking this seriously. https://www.ksl.com/.../87-magnitude-earthquake-in...

Got about 3" in the first ~90 minutes and about 4" overall, here in Metuchen, despite the radar showing only 2.5-3.0".

We're hosting an event on Sunday afternoon June 1st that we hope can be outdoors in our backyard (but is small enough to move inside our house if the weather is bad, but outdoors would be nicer). Euro and Euro-AI show the period from Saturday night through Monday morning being dry, while the GFS shows it mostly dry with just a few spritzes possible on Sunday - I know it's a long way out, but it's at least nice to have the models largely on our side at this point. I rarely ever look at the weather beyond 7-8 days, outside of general patterns (CPC 8-14 day forecast shows generally normal temps and precip for the period around 6/1), since specific forecasts are usually pretty inaccurate that far out, but I'm following this one on a couple of the long range "forecasts" just out of curiosity. Was interesting to see both the AccuWeather and MyWeather forecasts were showing some rain on Sunday for the last several days, until yesterday, when both switched to mostly sunny/dry forecasts with seasonable temps (highs near 80F) - and today they still show that. I've tracked a few other events this far out and the forecasts and models flip-flopped a ton from 10-15 days out, but sometimes they'll show consistent solutions, especially from about 10-11 days in. Hoping this is one of those cases. Comments welcome.

Do people think this looks right? Seems overdone for me, especially at lower elevations...

It has some snow for areas mostly N of 80 on 4/8 in the map below; it also has some more snow on 4/12 for areas N of 84 and then even more on 4/18 for the Catskills/Berkshires and north. Assuming you want the first one that gives you a bit of snow.

Agree on all counts, hence my "lol." The only thing that gives at least a little credence that we could have a bit of snow in some places around then is the CPC's forecast for that period to be well below normal in temp.

Only 11 days out and it's not the GFS, lol...

Another virtual monster snowstorm on the 6Z GFS on 4/3. That's about 48" from the GFS over the last 2-3 weeks, lol. At least for this one the AIFS is showing 1-2" NW of 95, which could be plausible.

How fitting this would be for most of NYC Metro, lol...

Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z. It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing. There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time.

Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but...

What makes you think I am? I think I've made it clear that this is a very low probability event for 95, at least, but it's not a zero probability event, as snow is obviously possible in late March. Would need to see support from other models to start to be truly interested in this.

Some much needed rains...

12Z GFS still shows snow for Friday, which is not that far off. Of course, it's still alone showing snow south of 84 - would be amazing if somehow it's right.