RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Yea and snowcover nor storm track advanced much further SE last season. It snows where it wants to.

He’s just finally getting out to the burbs and away from college city campuses. He’ll spot a bear next which will trigger a complete meltdown.

WGW again and again.

And you’re in your 30’s now...the world is crumbling.

Will be nice to get an earlier sunrise.

Winters like last suck. I’d rather bang out a great month or two instead.

Early March, yea. Great storm. Unfortunately, it was just two...Mid Nov and Early Mar...with mostly rainers in DJF.

I do like a -pna slightly -nao pattern for us folks away from the eastern waters.

Something big coming? Do tell..

Oh dang, TWC >> DT

Nevermind, I see it now. CFS, fwiw, looks good JFM with Feb as the best month.

Ah ok. I didn’t think he thought it was a warm look either...but I kinda thought it was, at least average. How can you tell?

I think he means being under a big cold and thus dry dome is useless...plains and GL can have it.

Yea, and Dorian.

Yes 18. It’s a fine line. I prefer -pna -nao since +pna systems can get away from me and crush east zones more so, obviously ridge placement is key. But when we have a -pna man can it get ugly without some semblance of canadian intrusion overhead.

But the NAO has been non existent in winter except for Mar/Apr 17. Does it finally make a mid winter comeback this season?

Yea I saw eps and even the gefs backed off the AK vortex idea too. I guess I meant if troughing persisted there next 2/3 weeks, we would have a different SST look.

Well, I’m not factoring last year though into my early tempered expectations for this year. No PTSD here. This is just my weenie observation but it seems lately patterns lock in longer and are more extreme. By that I mean the wet dewy summer of 2018 which continued wet into the winter. 2019 has been dry especially Aug and Sept. These are just quick examples but if the AK vortex is showing up now, I’m hesitant to think it will be easy to move come Nov/Dec. It may just be brief troughing in that region with the usual yoyo back and forth so this is all for nothing. I dunno, just discussing and trying to learn more.

Ah ha, makes sense Scoots. By month end we should see a change in the GOAK then.

Cautiously optimistic but I’m deff noticing a slight hesitation within myself to ride the AN snow donkey.

I continue not to like the look in AK as we head towards month end. I know I know, the pac looks good should lead to higher heights and it’s only Oct, etc but...I can’t shake this idea that patterns lock in longer these days and if the vortex sets shop, it’s an even more difficult pattern to erase.

Oh, yea. Haven’t seen it on desktop yet, that is annoying. Maybe I should just shorten my SN then.

You’re good man. Self reflection to make positive changes is a skill not many are willing to learn so I commend you for it. The less narcissistic our world is, the better....and critical progress can be achieved on a large scale. It all starts with me, you....each one of us.

Well, I’m all aboard the Polar Coaster: