Very funny but I have zero expectations for this event and not much for this winter as a whole. I finally know the limitations here in SWCT.
This is a NW of 84 event while the ORH points NE jack/crush. A rogue nam run or two doesn’t change anything.
Yea. We’ve been stuck in fast flows for several winters now so the gfs has had the right idea more often than not, even if it’s particular solution isn’t spot on...but the euro idea of wrapping up cyclones off the coast of NJ as if the flow is slow and buckled is almost always overdone. Model bias at play unrecognizable of the fast-er wave movement.
It was amped last night less amped now...we know the bias. It will keep pushing this E/NE. Best bet for accum snows is ORH points NE and super marginal anywhere SW of there.
Just another model. Scores well at h5 but one can’t hang their forecast on it. Just ask DT...he’s been crushed by the euro busts of Jan15, Jan16, and some others. Just have to weigh it accordingly and not be all in on its output.