I would think as a forecaster you’re better off busting low than high. Like if an area gets 10” but was forecasted for 4-6”, nobody is really butthurt about it. But if you go 8-10” and they get 2”, it’s a problem.
Looks like the hr30 frame would produce back this way for a few hours which the clowns maps aren’t catching.
It’s razor close, as usual, but an outside shot at 2-4” is possible.
Not saying herpes is great but I prefer it over the rgem esp in marginal setups. I find its thermals to be superior although its skewed to the colder side a bit too much.