LakeEffectOH

Does anybody know why Lake and Cuyahoga county are under a winter storm warning while a winter storm watch is still in effect for Geauga and Ashtabula county. For sure, CLE is not thinking of the possibility of putting these counties under and advisory...

RGEM looks like it trended south a bit. Previous runs showed the snow hardly touching the lakeshore.

I listened to BAMWX's storm discussion and the Met said that after watching these kind of storms for several years, he thinks there may be some southward drift in the accums, but a pretty hard hit of snow for NEOH.

I think you're right!

Toledo deserves a good one! So far, this has been a lousy winter for you guys in terms of snowfall.

12z Euro ran just a bit south. No system split like the GFS was showing.

GFS looks like it's trying to break the storm in two. 6z showed essentially the same thing. All other models thus far are north and still, ostensibly, are are a single storm. ...Waiting with baited breath for the 12z Euro.

Looks like Weatherbell is under an ECWA (East Coast Weenie Attack). Site is running very slow...

Looks like Weatherbell is under an ECWA (East Coast Weenie Attack). Site is running very slow...

Looks like Weatherbell is under an ECWA (East Coast Weenie Attack). Site is running very slow...

Yep, we can get hit pretty hard here. Hopefully the warmup next week doesn't do a number on the snowpack. Next week's storm is still iffy. The overnight models trended a little colder, but colder trend was erased by today's midday models. Still have to see what the ECMWF has to say. These Chicago-Detroit storms have to be watched as we could get a nasty mix of snow and ice or if the storm strengthens, it can blast rain & 50°+ this way. There is nothing that melts a snowpack (even one that is like concrete) faster than several hours of 50° and rain. Keep fingers and toes crossed. Lol!

Yep, for the most part, this event was a lakeshore runner, though NEOH did manage to get some out of it.

That's a little surprising because yesterday, it looked as the lakeshore was where the bands were more organized.

I live about 3/4 miles east of 306 around 2 miles north of 322...far northeastern part of Chester twp. Looked to me like some of the snow showers moved SSE from west of my area to your area, thus missing my place. Also, the cells seemed smaller and less organized as compared to recent events. Looks like the freezing of the Lake might be doing its dirty work.

No snow whatsoever (except a few light flurries) here since Monday. I wonder how much the lakeshore towns such as Mentor & Painesville have gotten since Monday...Anyone have any idea?

Looked at the radar again...the heavier stuff looks as if it just blasted thru at 90mph, lol! Still snowing pretty good, but not as hard as a few minutes ago. Flakes have shrank some...

LEH is on! Ripping out here! Nice big flakes...

Got the better part of an inch today in Chesterland. Checked the radar and from what I can see, the back side is now moving in with some lake enhancement perhaps. Looks as if the back side may well be the more productive part for this event.

He was...

I think this one will come down to the wire. We're so close. May not be a blockbuster but I think we will see decent accumulations...likely to be much more than what we've seen so far this winter. Another thing, during La Ninas in particular, winter storm tracks, coming this way, have, verified more NW than modeled. Such events have ended up bringing decent accumulations (3"-5")well NW (Detroit, for example) when modeling called for like a coating to an inch though I doubt this go-around will take accumulating snows that far NW. I do remember (correct me if I'm wrong) the Christmas storm last year...for 4-6 days before the storm, models ECMWF, GEM, GFS) were fairly consistent on bringing a good storm to NE OH and NC OH. A white Christmas looked like a good bet. About 3 days prior to the storm, the GFS began playing games as one run had the heavy snow back as far west as South Bend IN and east central Michigan while seemingly, the very next run, the GFS lurched the max amounts well east of here progging paltry amounts (coating to 2") to most areas except the OH-PA border which was progged to get like 3-4". Within 36 hours of Christmas day, GFS finally caved to the other models which always had NE OH in a favorable location. We shall see...

Soooooooo tired of hearing nothing more than the term inch or less in the wx snow accum forecasts...

"Unwillingness" seems about right...

Most likely the ice has expanded since Sunday. 1) Image below is from yesterday; most likely from the early am before any major freezing took place. 2) Image below is my wild arse (WAG) guess of the current ice cover. Edited areas are within the red circle (Area of Interest). Note: Again, just a WAG from 30 years of watching similar western base ice cover spread over a similar 2-3 day sub-freezing temperature regime.

OHweather, Thanks for the post mortem. Yeah, this one sucked...I didn't know that stronger wind speeds over the lake added to the disorganization of yesterday's event. What do the elevated wind speeds do to lessen the effectivity of the snow bands? Also, what do you think of the synoptic storm early next week. The 12z GFS shows its track much further west and the 12z GEM shows increased accumulations (a chunk of that is lake effect/enhanced though. Seems to be a little more potential than the overnight models depicted.

I'll say! Here in Chesterland, we just got over an inch. Snow bands this afternoon were weird. They looked all sliced up. Was this caused by shearing at a different altitude? Looks like there is little moisture headed this way for the next week. Bone dry...