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tarheelwx

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Everything posted by tarheelwx

  1. tarheelwx
    Your forecast overall seems about right. Hopefully we can go on the upper end or a little higher. TW
  2. tarheelwx
    Euro and Euro AI seem generally aligned at this stage. TW
  3. tarheelwx
    NAM was very consistent calling out the drier solution last weekend. I wouldn't discount it totally. Actually it seems very logical to me. Not agreeing, just saying it has merit. TW
  4. tarheelwx
    Maybe the ULL cranks and then energy transfers offshore. Not saying it’s right but I suspect that’s what it’s showing. TW
  5. tarheelwx
    If history repeats itself as it has over and over again, precip in the triad will quickly wind down once the low moves north of hatteras. Book it. TW
  6. tarheelwx
    It happened on Saturday morning during the storm of the century. No power but it came through on the weather radio. TW
  7. tarheelwx
    Thanks for that. I was at Big Sky skiing for that one. I didn’t realize you guys had one. I’m pretty certain we did not in the triad. TW
  8. tarheelwx
    I've lived in NC for 59 years and we have had a blizzard warning only once in the March '93 Superstorm. Maybe we can get there again this weekend. TW
  9. tarheelwx
    15:1 vs 10:1 …… just take what it shows and multiply times 1.5. TW
  10. tarheelwx
    It really hits the breaks and is near ideal location for central NC. I'm surprised there isn't more precip. TW
  11. tarheelwx
    I think some of us old timers here in NC saw the writing on the wall last night - light precip. Dry slot, final “band” likely to underperform. I think it’s a bust for those that didn’t factor in the dry slot and lower qpf. The cold air and CAD was simply a matter of sleet vs ZR and we all know how that often shakes out with anonymously cold air. Hat off to the NAM on the dry slot. As for the cold and ptypes, seasoned Mets should have know. TW
  12. tarheelwx
    I think you’ll see those moderating temps continue to spread out. Difficult for those heavy rates to freeze on impact - warmer droplets, heavier rates, and warmer surface temps. Just saying. TW
  13. tarheelwx
    Spot on - skinnier line, “warmer” temps, heavy rates will likely minimize the impact east of the mountains. I’ve lived in the CAD zone 59 years and have never seen a trailing line like this deliver heavy accrual. This could certainly be the first, but my experience points to much less impact than many are assuming. TW
  14. tarheelwx
    That should cover it. Great service! TW
  15. tarheelwx
    2pm
  16. tarheelwx
    My NWS forecast for Colfax has max wind today and tonight at 7 mph. What’s up with that? TW
  17. tarheelwx
    For the Triad, 1-2” of sleet and 0.25-0.5 ZR. So yes a major ice storm, but I just don’t see severe or crippling in the cards. Outages for sure but we’ll dodge the ZR hype that’s out there. TW
  18. tarheelwx
    I’ve seen this happen a few times here in the triad in the last 40 years where the models show a strong line of precip/zr with rising temps to close out an event. Every one of them were all bark and little to no bite - moderate to heavy “warm” rain has a hard time freezing at 31/32 degrees. In the 20’s is a different story. This could be a first, but to me, this event is getting much clearer. TW
  19. tarheelwx
    NAM has definitely lead the way on the dry slot …. Assuming it happens. It’s wavered very little. TW
  20. tarheelwx
    Pretty clear move south in better alignment with most other models. TW
  21. tarheelwx
    Dry slots have been under modeled for 40 years since I began actively following the weather. The other thing to note is that the final line coming through with heavy precip will likely be with temps close to freezing. Heavy rates and a marginal surface temp will likely lead to additional accrual. Having said all that, this airmass is exceptionally cold and CAD often hangs on for dear life in key areas. TW
  22. tarheelwx
    Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map? TW
  23. tarheelwx
    I'd say backside snow is exactly what we should expect to happen. TW
  24. tarheelwx
    Maybe this has already been said, but just in case....... This starts in NC as an overrunning event that transitions to a miller B (most likely). In many overrunning events, precip arrives/breaks out a bit ahead of schedule. Don't be surprised to see the precip arrive Saturday morning vs. afternoon. I could surely see it come in 6-9 hours ahead of schedule. TW
  25. tarheelwx
    What exactly does "Total Ice" mean on this map? TW
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