RedSky
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Everything posted by RedSky
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Para GFS been a rock near steadfast solution
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Yep correct the reggie says much more
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No point arguing that exact location the coastal sets up it won't be known until Monday am
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Icon targets Quakertown with 25"
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Welcome to Macungie the new Tahoe of the east
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March 58 ten miles up the road and I get skunked with just 48"
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Strange we got Roger Smithed but still waiting on being NAM'd
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We know you have to go conservative with these storms because 90% of the time the ground truth is the low end of forecast/guidance amounts. The thing I find intriguing is the amount of time this storm is going to hang out vs our typical steady movers. I would think the odds would be better of hitting high end guidance with this one, time will tell. I have only seen 3 storms in my lifetime hit the magical 20" number and the only way you get there is a slow crawl.
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Expectations set at lucky 13" now I sit back and let the Miller B fly
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Mount Holy is going all out at 12-18" that is interesting also. I like 10-15" myself as a personal guess.
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Weather World says meh 6-10" in SEPA in the forecast out 2 hours ago. A bit conservative.
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Even though it's short term the ensembles can still be used to detect last hour trends north/south for example the big move north in the December storm
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EPS maintains the OP look rock solid
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Two potential additional winter events on the 10 day ECM and it's muted the grinch torch
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ECM looks a lot like the para GFS hmmm Also more realistic looking digital snow map and man the kuchera ones are starting to bug me raise expectations through the stratosphere in every storm.
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They both had a frozen Nockamixon lake to walk on, this one won't see that level of long duration cold. Yes Feb 2015 was the coldest.
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It's done well with the signal as the ECM wavered, however the latest run is different than the rest of the models not showing a warm coastal influence have to see how that plays out. It's awful close to game time to show this change.
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The signals won't stop that February is a potential blockbuster. -AO/-NAO and even -EPO kicking in. The February 2014 look but not as cold(that was record territory) It helps the month starts off with 8-20" snow hehe
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No longer fighting confluence or slow transfer it looks more like Jan 2016
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UKMET came north and falls in line with most of the other models, 6-12" in SEPA
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No more north move so far 12z is my biggest takeaway that had to stop
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MECS, 3 days later a grinch torch, 3 days later a SECS. February looks like an interesting month, exhausted just thinking about it.
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The only town in PA that doesn't win on the ECM is the snowiest-Erie
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18z ECM on December 13th - we know what happened Use these maps with extreme prejudice!
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Try again I went from 12 to 3
