Hurricane Agnes

18z 3k NAM's s too!

18z 12K NAM just NAM'd SE PA.

13z NBM is reasonable.

12z GFS seems to have that same idea of blowing up just off the coast although it looks a wee bit west from the 6z.  I know the globals aren't really the best for the short range in any case.

24 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

WSW warnings in parts of Maryland now too. 

Just checking that out.  Far western areas along the Appalachians.  That positive tilt of moisture flow may become a fire hose.

I know no one wanted to make a thread lest they jinx it but I think you guys up there have a better chance of avoiding the jinx!

The sun was trying to pop out here earlier but am currently clouded over and 44, with dp 34.  Don't expect to see anything until much later this evening but we shall see.

19 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Hmm... Can't copy/paste into and from imgur anymore. What are you all using to post images?

I hate that imgur changed how they did that.  I don't use imgur here but do use it at another site and you can still click on your image to get the bigger view and then right click that image and (depending on how the browser drop down menu words it) "open image in new tab" (if you use tabs), and it will display the image full size and will use the image's URL with the graphic's extension (".gif" or ".png" or ".jpg", etc). Then copy and past that link.

8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Unless I'm missing something the timestamp on each page is 2/11 6:25am

Since they may be using the same name for each iteration, you may have pulled up an older one. 

The current one has this -

Quote

Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
2/12/2024 7:57 AM

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

NAM seems reasonable think it may be accounting for the cold air crashing and also elevation.  I am very interested to see what the GFS says, but honestly it is time for short range dynamic models.  Anymore shifts to the SE and region wide north and west of the Delaware River gets pasted.  What is tricky in this situation you cannot salt the roads in the rain and this is CLEARLY a rain to snow event. 

The rain snow line will be monitored like a hawk!  The earlier the changeover the more snow you get I would think in this case. 

Up in that northern tier of counties in the CWA, they can definitely brine and salt ahead of time as it has been progged (at least at the higher elevations and furthest north) to pretty much be all snow for the event.  The next couple tiers down would be the mess.

I haven't bothered to even look at the NE forum but I expect they are celebrating.

As a quick obs - I bottomed out above freezing at 39 this morning and am currently at 42 with dp 33.

12z 3k NAM

4 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

NWS updated their powerpoint:

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A pasting n and w

It (at least the 12k) still brings more further south.  But the LV / I-78 and north has always been persistent with all of the models.

ETA - RedSky would like this...

12z NAM is running so will see how that goes.

LOL I just saw this trailer this morning -

The trailer scenes almost look like a remake of the original "Twister" but I think this is supposed to be a sequel.

Hard to believe it's been almost 30 years.  I have the original on laserdisc and used to use it as one of my "demo" films for my early Dolby Digital 5.1 home theater back then (complete with subwoofer).

6z EC seems to be matching the 6z GFS, ticking the low a bit to the east off the coast.

6z hi-res EC has moved south.

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I would think some slight bumps back North could be expected, but I’m very optimistic about a 4-7in snowfall in the Lehigh Valley. Would be the biggest snowfall in quite a bit 

Up your way has definitely been in the target zone for days now.  It's a matter of how much.

7z NBM not buying it.  I almost want to say it could be convective feedback but I suppose the 12z will be instructive.

Was trying to see what the GFS was trying to do and I guess it wants to start bombing out the low when it gets out into the ocean.

Latest Mt. Holly map -

6z 12K NAM

6z 3k NAM

19z NBM.

18z ICON kept the same theme as others.