winter_rules

19 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

About 10" here and getting some light to mod snow again. Looks like we might be good for another 1-3" here today possibly.

What radar is this?  I have given up trying to use the new NWS radar and need a new one.  I don’t understand how NWS could put out such a horrible product. Maybe it’s just cheaper than other options?

17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah the models were hitting the upsloping along the eastern hills of the catskills almost every run it seems while also downsloping eastern parts of the county. 

I agree with you.  I just didn’t (want to) believe it because I can’t think of one time where it has been anywhere near this pronounced....at least since 1999 when my brother (FlyingMXZ) moved out near Delhi/Stamford.  Watching the radar seemed “normal” for a nor’easter. 
 

With that said, it’s been snowing hard for a few hours this morning.  Hopefully it keeps up for a few more hours to get us up around 12”!

Interesting range in Delaware County.  The eastern part seems to have been hit hard (12-15”+ and counting), but the western part (my house) has been in on/off light snow for the entire event (24+hrs) totaling around 6-8”.  Thankfully we had a good snowpack to start, so it’s not a complete crusher but still disappointing.  I have to admit that many of the models showed this spread across the county but I was suspicious because it’s pretty rare.  Eastern areas usually get and inch or two more than us, but rarely this big of a difference.  Even when we were under decent radar returns it just wasn’t snowing hard.  I’m going to have to look into subsidence.  
 

I hope the Syracuse folks can get under a good heavy snow for a few hours to restore some sanity for them. THMatt may be lost already (for good reason....who moves to TH and gets skunked?!?!), but maybe this can save a few of the others! 

While all eyes are on this Monday-Tuesday storm, what’s it looking like for later in the week?  Warm forecasts on TWC and NWS keep getting adjusted lower.  Too good to be true? 

36 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

Well don't get too excited, going to have a warm up heading into next weekend. Which figures, right as we are heading to the ADK.

Same here.  My brother’s birthday is Thursday so we’re all planning to take vacation days to snowmobile Th and Fri....in the rain.  The only thing worse would be to wash away 2.5ft of snow on Christmas Eve....oh wait that also happened. 
 

Bitching aside, this has been a pretty good January for winter in the Catskills.  We have been slowly building a very good base with consistently cold temps and many small accumulations continuously adding up. 

Steady light snow moving in to Binghamton.  Just using the old eyeball evaluation by watching the radar loop it just doesn’t seem like a 3-5” event even if we don’t mix at all.  Maybe an inch followed by drizzle/flurries for hours? Hope I’m wrong! 
 

Side note:  Pretty dense 6-12” or more snowpack above 1,500ft in Delaware County.  Almost zero snowpack below maybe 1,200ft.  Just returned to work in Binghamton (first time since Th) and was shocked to see how little snow is on the ground relative to home.  

11 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

It's looking like slim pickings outside of those locations for the next week or more.  At least the place I go snowshoeing up north should add to their coverage.  

Winona?

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

That clear sky really let the temp plummet here.

8 F.

Now of course it's clouded over for another day of grey!

We had 2° yesterday morning and 5° this morning.  Low clouds coated all the tree branches this morning making everything look even prettier.

10 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. I’m not talking to anyone near Bing or ALB

Just because you’re not talking to us doesn’t mean we can’t keep rubbing in our plans for sledding with the kids tomorrow!

JK.  To THMatt’s point, we are usually jealous of you guys so we have to get our shots in when we can!

Like FlyingMXZ said, that Christmas grinch rain storm really F’d our start to winter.  This would be an epic start if we hadn’t had 30” of snow wiped out in 24hrs. 

Good luck BW.  It sounds like you might know the culprit so hopefully you now know how to address it. 
 

I feel bad for a lot of you guys.  It has been a very wintry few days in the NW Catskills.  +/-5in of wet snow Sunday, snow still clinging to all the trees (above about 1,500ft), new 1/2” of snow every day to keep it fresh. Cold and sunny this weekend should make for a nice weekend to play in the snow with the kids!  Not quite enough to really snowmobile, but enough for the kids to buzz around the fields and have fun sledding on the hills. Hopefully we can all start cashing in soon!

45 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Seeing a low in that position in January and having to worry if it would be snowing or raining at my place......Appalling!

 

 

The same goes for my place!  I’m starting to resent winter...

Merry Christmas and congratulations to the Buffalo folks!  
 

We just endured a pretty spectacular meltdown over the past 24-36 hours.  30” of snow a week ago compacted down to about 18” by Wednesday morning, and then steady southerly winds started Wednesday afternoon and continued through this morning.  The rain started in the early afternoon yesterday and washed almost everything white away.  Only snow piles and drifts remain.  Basement is flooded and water is running full in ditches and across the fields and lawn.  Aside from damaging weather (wind, freezing rain, etc.), this had to be the most miserable Christmas Eve and Christmas Day weather possible.  

We picked the wrong year to give our kids a snowmobile for Christmas...

Edit: I just saw that we hit 56° some time after midnight!  Down to a frigid 50° at 8:48am.  

5 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

2” on Christmas is like a foot any other day...

Unless the 18” on the ground is wiped out Christmas Eve into Christmas morning and then the inch falls on top of the water flooding everywhere.  That’s what Christmas morning is going to be for us.  WTF....

8 hours ago, Syrmax said:

It’s raining. And two more days of it on tap this week.  The rest of the 0Z suite looks like a slow meltdown well  into January.   Where is this winter people speak of?

 

It has been a beautiful wintry stretch of weather in the southern part of the state.  A few days of cold to freeze the ground, then 3ft of snow, then cold with snow showers daily to keep the snowpack looking fresh.  Classic winter weather that has been so lacking down here the past few years.  
 

With that said, I’m about to be reminded that it takes days/weeks and/or a fluke snow storm to build a nice wintry scene around here and just 24hrs to destroy it.   

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It perplexed all the mets on the New England forum, they didn't understand it. The banding in Southern Vermont and NH they understood, but the Binghamton banding they couldn't figure out. Hopefully some good papers will be written on it. I've never seen strong LES rates in synoptic like that outside of right along the coast or higher elevations in upslope.

Cleanup still ongoing in the Binghamton area.  Loaded dump trucks are half the vehicles driving by our office on Rte 7.  We have crews working with the City of Binghamton and with DOT day and night since we dug ourselves out on Friday.  Some side streets in Endicott hadn’t been plowed as of Saturday afternoon.  
 

At home we are shoveling roofs getting ready for a lot of weight to be added to this snow.  Unfortunately I think we’re going to hear about roofs collapsing on Christmas Eve.  

2 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Just remember into the future....Pretty much all the models do not handle the placement of mesoscale banding features very well.  Usually, (but not all the time), placement seems 30-50 miles to the NW vs. model consensus...even at lead times of 12 hours!!!  Miller B's are complicated buggers.

You are absolutely correct.  Most models showed my location on the NW fringe of the heavy snow, so I thought we had a good chance of getting hit pretty good with the usual NW shift....but the band went just a hair too far NW and we ended up on the SE fringe of the band!  Feels like when I used to live in Parish and near Altmar and LE bands would set up JUST N or S of us! 
 

I can’t complain, though.  We measured 28” on the ground in the wide open driveway! 

In NW Delaware County we have been on the southern fringe of that intense band all night, after expecting to be on the northern fringe all night!  I just measured 24-26” in various spots.  Heavy snow continuing.  15°.  
 

If you have already had the virus, are you still supposed to get the vaccine?  Has anyone seen any evidence of more/less protection either way (vaccine vs. natural antibodies)? 

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the Covid virus has made it to my house finally...my middle child tested positive this morning as she has some slight symptoms and many of her gymnastics teammates have recently tested positive as well. 

I’m sorry to hear that.  Hopefully it’s just mild symptoms for anybody who may get it!  
 

I’m curious how you’re handling it spreading within your household.  We have 3 kids ages 3-7 and figure once one of us gets it, we’ll all have it within a week.  Our house setup doesn’t allow us to just lock someone in their own area for a week or two, as if you could do that at those ages anyway.  

Moderate snow in downtown Binghamton.  Close to an inch in the last hour.  Awesome, but also pathetic how excited I am about 1” of snow in December....

Dropped to 15° last night before clouds rolled in.  Left the house this morning at 24° on snow covered roads with a nice steady light snow in the air.  Hopefully a sign of things to come...eventually....

54 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Not so sure...being an "old timer"...i distinctly remember the GFS always overdoing the cold going back to the 1990s and early 00's.  It's tendency to be too far S&E with east coast systems (esp in the medium range) and to lose storms, only to have them magically reappear as the event draws closer, seems to be relatively unchanged.  At least that's my unwashed perception...

Interesting.  Now that you mention it, the shift to the NW has always seemed inevitable for any nor’easter type of storm even back in high school when I started paying attention to weather in the early 2000s. 

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’ve asked this since last year. Model output seems to be at an all time high for inept forecasts. 

I have also thought the same thing.  They seem to be always trying to show cold weather just around the corner, which may have been more prevalent 20 years ago?  

20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's spreading quickly around here. Quite a few people I know have confirmed infections. I didn't know anyone with it all summer. 

What do you think is driving the higher rates in Erie County?  That area seems to have been a “hot spot” relative to the rest of upstate NY all year.  Is it as simple as people refusing to wear masks and/or going about life as normal?

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

There is a ridge that runs between Amboy/Williamstown area over to Florence in N. Oneida county. I think it is a hidden snow secret. The winter I lived up there, any time I would go to Camden, that ridge almost always had more snow than S. Redfield where I was at. It would cash in on NW winds, was far enough North to get snow from the West wind bands (what little we had), and often would get some upsloping or something when there were SW winds..I could see the moisture flowing from the bands coming from Lake Erie and it was like an upslope effect from those bands. Plus, it was a higher elevation. It's a beautiful area too, with gorgeous evergreens and a very mountainous feel.

You are correct.  Redfield has the reputation for receiving a ton of snow, and they do relative to most areas, but you have to go a little North of Redfield for the truly impressive snow depths.  5 miles N of Redfield is a surprisingly different winter climate than 5 miles S of Redfield.