winter_rules

Grass is covered in the hills of the northern Catskills.  Down to 24° and looking mighty wintry outside!  

18 minutes ago, cny rider said:

This is a straw man argument.

What you are ignoring while quibbling about statistics is leadership.

FDR was a leader.  He got Americans to do things that were unpleasant but necessary to win the war.

Trump is not a leader.  He is divisive and spiteful, not capable of leading in a crisis.

If everyone was wearing masks during public interactions the last 6 months countless lives would have been saved, along with small businesses and jobs.

Is that too much to ask of the American people?

a) Apparently wearing a mask IS too much to ask of the American people these days.  
 

b) I agree with both of you guys here.  World shutdowns seem extreme for the level of danger of this particular virus, BUT how F’ing hard is it to wear a mask?  I have been diligent to wear one in public since March, mainly for the selfish reason of wanting to keep things as normal as possible! 
 

c) I’m a registered Republican but I’m glad the freak show is on his way out of office, even if he doesn’t think he is yet.  I’m just really hoping Republicans can be smart enough to field a reasonable candidate in 2024.  I believe that if either party fields a semi-moderate candidate with a decent background they’ll win in a landslide, relatively speaking.  Like 52-48. 

15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

People complaining about the Covid restrictions would be wise to educate themselves on the restrictions and rationing that took place during WW2.

Last year my 89yr old grandmother wrote a few pages about her childhood, which included growing up with essentially all products being rationed during WWII.  I talked to her about how the spoiled babies in today’s society would handle that type of inconvenience.  We did not realize we would get a *little* taste of it this year....

7 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I don't know about nationally but locally hospitals continue to operate deep in the red and will be making even more cuts to staffing. Volume is down almost half.

That’s interesting in itself, outside of COVID.  Where did all these people go who would otherwise “need” healthcare in any other year?  Have the heart attack and stroke deaths increased significantly this year because people are afraid to go to a hospital?  That was a discussion back in the spring but I haven’t heard anything since then.  Elective surgeries must be way down, too. Hmmm.....

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

My first reaction to seeing that from Eric Fisher was, "GAaaaaaaaahhhhhh."

 

But, your perspective on this is great..and you have a great point!

It has taken me 35 years and 3 kids to get to this point, but I’m finally embracing Joe Basardi’s old phrase: “Enjoy the weather.  It’s the only weather you’ve got.”  It’s a bit silly, but a good motto for all of us on this forum. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Rinse and repeat

 

Honestly, I’m happy to have something different than the past few Novembers.  Hopefully winter will be different than the past few years, too.  I’m going to test his hypothesis about planting grass in an area I recently disturbed!   

As someone else on here recently mentioned, 10 degrees above average right now is beautiful weather, but 10 degrees below average is just miserable! 

19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Just hit over 100 million early votes, 30 million away from 2016 totals..

Everybody at my office who has voted this morning, including myself, has commented about how many more people were at the polls than usual (all before 7am).  Factor in all the mail-in ballots and this could be interesting.....

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yup, moving back to the pulaski area..(as long as the inspection passes lol)

The old lady has been taking the 45 mile drive almost daily 

https://www.remax.com/ny/pulaski/home-details/16-coho-st-pulaski-ny-13142/10028254325625751004

Looks like a great house, and it will be a lot more convenient than your old place!

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wolfs hoping for a Feb 2007.

To be fair, I think we are all hoping for a repeat of that one!  

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I would take a cold/snow Dec/Jan all day. If we get below average temps for those 2 months we're basically guaranteed a good winter. I think the first 2 weeks of Nov are pretty warm and we slowly transition the second half to about average/slightly below. 

That sounds good to me.  Anything other than a cold/snowy November followed by a warm/rainy December into January which has been the general story the last few years.  

31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Some frost advisories issued for this evening..

 

I don’t like how they do this.  The 10 of us on this weather forum understand why they are not showing frost advisories for the rest of the counties in upstate NY, but the 15 people in my office think there will be a frost in those counties but no frost in the counties where they don’t show a frost advisory.  

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

This "cold" shot sure fizzled away. One day of 50s for highs and then it's pretty much back to normal temps for early October. Cold fronts bring "normal" temps these days...lol

The forecast changes over the last few days have been a good winter preseason reminder for all of us that:

a)  The models will constantly show cold air *just* around the corner, and;

b)  The models will show multiple large lake effect events which will dwindle to a minor event, probably in a different location, once the event actually takes place. 

I’m not trying to be negative, but the 7-10 day forecast often looks cold and/or snowy, only for it to fade as we get closer to those actual dates.  Then the process starts over again....

48 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's some nice colors really starting to show here this week...especially over the past 2 days.

Same thing in the Catskills.  The changes have been visible almost daily the last few days.  

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For you Syracuse guys 2010-2011 had to be one of the best. Didn't you have over 100" of snow before Christmas? 

If I’m thinking of the correct year, we had a thaw around Christmas and all that snow was reduced to leftover snow piles around the end of December....at least around the I81/I90 interchange where I was working at the time.  

4th consecutive morning between 25° and 28°.  Seems like an appropriate way to head into Autumn!  Looking forward to some warm sunny days later this week to warm the house back up.... 

25° this morning!  Several degrees colder than expected.  Gorgeous outside as the sun is starting to reveal the white covering on everything.  Growing season officially over in the Northern Catskills. 

Very interesting.  I guess I didn’t realize how far inland the effect of the warm lake water really extended in the Rochester/Buffalo areas.  
 

I lived about 4 miles East of Pulaski (very close to where Wolfie just moved from) and it seemed like Lake Ontario really only influenced surface temps In the area from roughly I81 West toward the lake.  By the time you were a mile or two East of I81 you were mostly away from the biggest surface temp influence.  Slowly gaining elevation toward the East probably plays a bigger role than I realized.  

26 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

i've been tracking my first frost/freeze date closely for about the last 10 years in Rochester.  It usually comes sometime in the 3rd or 4th week of October.  This is pretty unusual stuff here, almost 5 weeks ahead of schedule for the lake plain folks.  It's certainly going to speed up the garden break time line down this year. 

I’m shocked to hear this.  In the northern Catskills we almost always have a frost by the 2nd half of September.  It’s not uncommon to have a frost in late August or early September.  This year it was Sept 15th (Tuesday) which seems about normal.  NWS Bing AFD mentions “high rural valleys” which describes us well.  I did not think there would be a 4-6 week difference....probably would have guessed +/-2 weeks.  
 

Leaves are turning in the hills, but they’re pretty dull thus far. 

12 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Visiting family. My girls dad lives in Laramie. Awesome awesome place to visit and am considering moving here once my sons adoption goes through (could be a year or more still). Elevation in the town and his house 8 miles north is 7200 feet but just West (20 mi) is the Snowy mountains which we went up yesterday to 12,000 feet. Just East (less than 10 miles) is the Laramie Mountains and Vedauwoo  Which is over 9000 feet and has absolutely awesome rock features. The mountains out here blow any of the mountains out east out of the water. We only went up to Mirror Lake which is at 10,800 feet or so but there was still plenty of snow left up there and you could feel how much thinner the air is up there. There are so many things to do here with camping in Medicine Bow National Forest, 4 wheeling through the mountains, and great fishing on the reservoir and Alpine lakes at nearly 10,000 feet. 
 

Throw in no state income tax and my father in laws $300,000 house only pays $1400 a year in taxes how could you not want to live here? 

That’s awesome.  I seriously considered that area (as well as Boise, ID) as I was getting done with college but we ended up staying in upstate NY where our families are.  With 3 little kids it is great to be around family, but when winter comes around I really wonder if I made the right decision....

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I know this is the case due to excess deaths, but that is not an excuse to label something covid that isn't. If my mom got Covid next week and died, her death certificate would be covid. It would not be stage 4 cancer, which makes no sense. I see multiple death certs on my desk each week, and have a few friends that work in hospitals that have seen this occur as well. It's not just reading a few news articles. 

Agreed.  I trust very little of what I hear on the news or read online, including this forum, but I do trust people I know stating facts about their families.  It’s not guaranteed to be truthful every time, but it stands a better chance of being truthful than almost anywhere else.  

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My wifes entire law firm might close down. They're firing almost everyone. 200+ employees in 5 states. I'm so done with covid lockdowns and the destruction its causing. Open up everything.

BW, I’m mainly just a lurker on this forum, but you seem to have a good head on your shoulders and I appreciate your regular posts about weather and trips to the Adirondacks. I’m sorry to hear about your mother’s situation - there’s not much worse in the world than helplessly watching a parent fight a bad disease.  On top of that, your wife must be very frustrated about her employment.  2020 has been rough for you.  I wish the best of luck to the two most important women in your life! 
 

In relation to your wife’s employment, what are the latest statewide numbers for deaths and hospitalizations relative to positive tests?  People near Oneonta are freaking out because college kids are not practicing social distancing (what a shock...).  There are now 65 current cases in Otsego County, but zero hospitalizations.  I can’t help but wonder if the virus has mutated to cause a less serious illness?  Not one person in my social/work circle has contracted the virus in months, but I have heard, 2nd hand, of two local situations of an older person dying of other causes but the families finding COVID on the death certificate!  Both families are fighting to get that changed, but you know the statistics won’t be updated to remove a few deaths.  I’m not a conspiracy nut, but I am starting to wonder about how much of a role politics is playing in this pandemic.  That’s a very scary situation if it’s true....

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Still looking. There was a can-am 400 that popped the other day for $500 that needed a new top end but someone beat me to it. 

I was looking for a little CRF50/70/110 for my 7yr old but they are so overpriced on the used market that he’ll be waiting a year.  I plan to keep my eyes open over the next year or two when some of these ATVs/SxS/dirt bikes are for sale with hardly any use.  Hoping to upgrade for cheap.  Even thought of selling my 2001 Sportsman 500 right now while the market is up, but I can’t go a winter without it....it’s my firewood hauler.  

13 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Hey...Iron plates and protein have gotten WAY more expensive lol

 

We have seen our grocery bill explode this year.  Whether it’s from supply and demand, price gouging (which is basically supply and demand, right?), one thing is for sure:  Most prices that increased recently won’t go back to “pre-pandemic” levels ever again. Go up 15%, maybe go back down to the equivalent of “only” a 5-10% increase?   

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Most places are calling for super torch winter, lets hope they're wrong. 

As a winter sports enthusiast, I have finally learned to accept this seemingly new reality.  My mind has shifted to hoping for a few decent storms and forgetting about any type of consistent “average winter temps” to maintain a decent snowcover away from Adirondack high peaks.  Hope for a few decent storms as a bonus, otherwise expect 35-40° highs and grey skies for 4-6 months.  

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Visiting my family in Danville, PA (You know, the reason it's been in the cool 70s all week in upstate NY...lol). I really think a rain-wrapped tornado went through here at 9:30 this morning. During the storm, I was watching the wind blow from the west for 10 minutes...then all of a sudden it shifted briskly from the east for 5 minutes. Flooding, hail, and wind damage around. No warning whatsoever.

Chainsaws being used all over before this next storm moves in.

We got two rounds of rain between 4am and about 8am which resulted in exactly 2in of rain.  There was a ton of close lightning (and loud thunder) associated with both rounds.  There’s a surprising amount of energy associated with these storms.  
 

Including today’s rain (thus far) we have now received 4.5in since Tuesday morning.