winter_rules

14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Nice! Yeah, I lived for 9 years in the Norton Shores/Spring Lake areas, on the other side of Muskegon from White Lake.

I am indeed used to more weaker "spread the wealth" lake effect events as opposed to the single bands that New York's belts seem to get. Hopefully, this upcoming week is one of those more spread the wealth events around here that can really add up over days.

Although West Michigan gets a bit less snow than our belts, the recreational environment is something I dearly miss. Oh, and the much more relaxed pace of life!

I know nothing about that area.  Can you expand upon these bolded thoughts?  Both seem intriguing to me and, well, probably almost everyone.

6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

From KBGM AFD for this evening:

...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this
afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ...

And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog.

Just the fact that they are mentioning “a dusting to half an inch” in CNY is sad.  That should happen most days in a decent winter. 

Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs.  Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z.  Is that correct?

22 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

9 degrees in Caz.   Picked up an inch last night/this morning... Maybe the models forgot how to incorporate radiational cooling into their outputs..

 Still thinking Buffalo metro will see over a foot... And probably some jackpots of near 2'.

We’re at 9° at 7:30pm down in Delaware County but it’s especially impressive to me because there is no snowcover at all. We almost always have at least an inch or two, but there isn’t even a dusting right now.  Pretty impressive temps with exposed earth. 

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

EPS is noticeably E but not horrible when compared to the other 12z runs. Still time.

I’m happy to see it “too far East” right now.  That’s gives us some breathing room for the last minute NW push….I hope. 

23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

If anyone wants a good laugh and has NFLX, watch Don't Look Up.  Holy crap its funny. I'm only halfway through but wow!

I rarely watch any movies, but we just watched it and found it hysterical, too!  On a related note, I think Leonardo DiCaprio is the best actor out there.  He has played so many different roles so well over many years….this movie is another example of a new character.  

12 hours ago, Geez150 said:

It's funny you mentioned that,  because as I was out for a walk with the Mrs. I was just  thinking about this. That our winter daytime averages were right around the freeze mark give or take a degree. Now you raise that a few here or there and we are out of the  snow business  all together.  If 37-41 is our new winter weather I want zero part of any of that. I would  love to move and chase the cold and snow to Northern Maine or something like that but realistically that won't happen. I can only hope something  shifts back to cold winters while I am still young enough to care for cold and snow.

I have been thinking of this for the past few years as well.  Take a US map and draw a general east-west line where you expect winter to be primarily white or just hit and miss white. We happen to live JUST north of that line.  I would say the NY-PA border is a good general delineation….maybe a little south of the state line due to high elevations in much of northern PA.  Now add a few degrees and we’re quickly into “hit and miss” territory.  Not a lot of room to give, especially if you aren’t above 1,000-1,500ft in elevation.  

Quite the snow globe look outside this morning with +/-2” of wet snow stuck to everything.   Should be a beautiful start to the day once the sun comes up.  
 

I’m doing my best to live in the moment and ignore the fact that we aren’t forecasted to go below freezing again until Sunday night….

1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Steady rain and 33 here.

Similar an hour to your East, but at least we held on to enough snow to still have 100% coverage and a white Christmas morning!  

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes because the rest of the run after is cutter city. The ensembles are taking a beating. I’m starting to face reality that we’re not going to see much if a winter this year, save for a few cold shots here and there. Me thinks an an all time low snowfall or in the top 5 might be achievable this year. 

I just looked through photos from last year and it resembled a common theme from the last decade.  Minimal snow before +/-2nd week of January, then it turned into a great winter that held a deep snowpack into mid-March. 
 

It’s easy to get discouraged by late December, but we still have +/-3 months of possibilities in front of us!  As Joe Bastardi used to say:  “Enjoy the weather.  It’s the only weather you have.”

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Payback for last year, pretty much the best christmas you could get here.

That’s ironic, because East of Binghamton it was essentially the worst Christmas Eve into Christmas we could ask for in terms of snow.  We lost +/-30” of snow in about 24hrs with something like 2” of rain to help wash it away.  Went to bed with rain on a diminishing snowpack, woke up to brown ground with water flowing everywhere, including through my unfinished basement.  

20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nice to see Cali getting a lot of precip love!

I was thinking the same thing!  I check Mammoth Mtn webcams almost daily throughout the winter.  Must be an amazing place to live.  Epic snowfalls followed closely by bluebird skies until the next big snowfall moves in. 
 

On a related note, I’m just noticing that our creeks and rivers are finally getting down to lower “normal” levels.  They have been running very high since at least July. 

21 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Maybe so, but those that called for a early start/front-end loaded winter can enjoy their crow. Looks like December will be another dud unless there is a big 4th quarter comeback the week of Christmas.

As someone who cares about snowpack, the one consistent winter pattern of late is that there will not be cold and snow on December 25th. 
 

Yes, I’m hoping this post jinx’s the pattern and we can all look back and scold me for being a fool later in the month!

Down to 10° already, our lowest temp of the season thus far.  +/-3” of snow on the ground, including snowpack on our southern exposure blacktop driveway and local town roads.  White ground with snow showers every day since Thanksgiving.  Kids made a snowman Friday and went sledding Saturday and Sunday.  Sure seems like someone flipped the switch to winter around here!

7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Out where I lived in West Michigan is getting some nice snowfall right now.

GVSU Web Cam

 

I have heard that annual snowfall has tripled in that area the last few years after averaging only 1” of snow for the few years before that.  Locals aren’t quite sure what caused the huge swing….

1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

Wife and kids are sitting along walls in the hallway of elementary school for a very rare tornado warning in our neck of the woods! 

All is well.  Back to classes shortly after I posted that.  I’m sure that made for an interesting morning with 4-10yr olds! 

Wife and kids are sitting along walls in the hallway of elementary school for a very rare tornado warning in our neck of the woods! 

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Binghamton radar is next for an upgrade..

 

Great!  Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function.

Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display?

18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I caved. Got down to 57° in the house again and switched the heat on.

I was actually looking forward to it (first time ever?) to cycle the air and start drying things out.  We have a few things in the house that have swollen worse than any of the past 5 years of living here! 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Top 10 warmest Octobers, current average is 66.7 degrees. 

1	60.5	1900	
2	59.8	1947	
3	58.8	2007	
4	58.7	1971	
5	58.2	1879	
6	57.2	1920	
7	57.2	1949	
8	57.1	1963	
9	57.0	2017	
10	56.6	1946

I would have expected to see more recent years on that list, based on similar lists for other months/seasons that seem to indicate recent warming trends. That list is very well spaced out from 1879 through 2017.  Of course 2021 could end up on there soon which is very close to 2017.

23 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Kind of what we expected. 

The order allows out-of-state and international health care workers to practice in New York. Additionally, it creates a fast track process for retired workers to get certified to work, and expands the list of people eligible to administer vaccinations.

I really don’t get how they can proclaim these mandates “to protect people’s health”, when it directly causes many already understaffed medical facilities to lose a large percentage of their staff.  
 

The current requirement is directly causing an immediate public health crisis, in an effort to avoid a possible, but increasingly unlikely public health crisis.  
 

It seems like a lot of people are really wrapped into a really strong fear of this thing.  I think everybody would do themselves a service to take a week off from all forms of media and go hiking, apple picking, golfing, visit friends, etc and see that the world is still turning and maybe they shouldn’t still be trying to shut the world down over this thing….

15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

That Euro map for the winter looks like a "Primary going to Lake Erie and giving us rain, with a secondary popping off New England and missing us mostly to the east." lol

A few systems might succeed and give us the slightly higher anomaly.

I’m hoping it is an indication of a clipper pattern where some pop off the coast, and the large scale model just can’t pick up on the localized lake effect events that follow each clipper….

5 hours ago, matt8204 said:

Excellent post.  It amazes me to observe how little self-awareness some people have.  They purport to be against discrimination, racism, prejudice, etc...but they have absolutely no qualms about lumping all people who dare to disagree with them into the exact same bucket.  Some even call for these folks to be exiled from society.  They're engaging in the very behavior that they claim to abhor.  

If there is one thing I have learned in my time, it is that the vast majority of people are selfish hypocrites.  Doesn’t matter “which side” of politics they claim to support.
 

Case in point:  We are working on a long dead end private gravel road on a lake.  Nearly everyone is very wealthy.  One place near the middle of the road has BLM and rainbow flags flying out front.  White seemingly “traditional” family unit.  Property owners along the road pay into a common fund to maintain the shared private road. They buy a load or two of crusher run periodically and a few owners take turns with their compact tractors improving the road.  Everyone contributes annually except the guy with the “inclusive” flags out front who has never contributed.  Funny how that works.  

25 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Not only right now.  It's going to worsen over the next 5-10 years.

Many are bailing out immediately from working in health care.

Many though are hanging on for now but planning a career change or earlier retirement and that's going to play out over the coming years, making the shortages of today look trivial.

There are too many of us that want out, and no way to "make new ones" fast enough given the multiple years of training and experience needed.

It's definitely going to get worse before it gets better.

 

While healthcare is the most critical industry that is seeing this, this is also playing out for at least teaching, construction, and engineering in upstate NY.  Good replacements just don’t exist in these areas.  Our tiny rural school is basically hiring anyone with a warm body.  This is a huge swing of the pendulum from 13 years ago when it was very difficult to find an elementary teaching job.  My construction/engineering industry has been struggling for the past 15+ years to find people who want to work, not to mention know how to build anything.

This will lead to wage growth, but it’s so widespread it’s going to lead to significant inflation, too. 

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Looking at the euro the next 8 days or so are average"ish"-below average..We start to warm up towards mid month..The GFS has been flip flopping between A/B Normal.. What ever warm ups we have are brief on the GFS FWIW..

1) I really appreciate your general model updates and maps that you regularly provide.  
 

2) As ‘cny rider’ pointed out, above average late-Sept into October makes for some very enjoyable fall weather.