winter_rules

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Where do you live? Trout Crk Ontario? 

NY, East of Binghamton a little south of I-88.  Near Oneonta/Sidney if you know of them. 

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

3k Nam pretty similar with temps and ptype outputs, but less precip than 12k Nam

Hopes fading for a good snowstorm for my locale, but I’m starting to get a little nervous about freezing rain problems.  That would be the absolute worst. I would much rather lose all our snow than deal with the effects of an ice storm. 

25 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

I'd say 15 is probably out of reach even for the higher terrain and in an all snow scenario due to less than ideal ratios. But 10-12" might be doable if we don't lose much precip to mixing esp in higher elevations.

I don’t disagree, I’m just pointing out the significant spread in possible outcomes. 

9 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Hang in there.

A week ago we were looking at this being several days in the 40s with rain.

We would have gone back to bare ground.

This event is going to be more addition than subtraction.

 

Yep, I’m hoping for a net gain and I’ll call it a win!  
 

It’s shocking to see a 7 day forecast go from warm and wet to colder and snowy as we get closer.  It seems that most warm forecasts usually trend warmer as we get closer! 

7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Take it and run though. We both been teetering on the southern fringe. Rather 6-10 of dense snow than a bunch of sleet and zr.

This is tough to watch for those of us who live along the I-88 corridor.  My official forecast to co-workers is 1”-15”.

Rain would pause snowmobiling until we receive more snow.  6”+ would make it beautiful, near perfect, conditions.  We’re right on the brink with all options on the table. 

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

6z eps 

I’m adding to 96Blizz’s comment: from a fellow southern tierian (work in Binghamton, live in NW Delaware County), thank you for all the informative posts! 

36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

As of now it looks like an epic warm up with not one but two rain storms. 

This is where it pays to be one of those weird “snowfall rate” guys rather than being one of the much cooler “snowpack” guys.  3 weeks of slowly building an almost decent snowpack gets washed away in a day or 3, then the painfully slow process starts over again.  

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

That day. Lol. And The following two. If it keeps looking like this I might see if anyone wants to bail and go west instead. Couple of them have Mnt Collective Passes. 

My brother’s birthday also falls in this window and we usually try to take a few days off to snowmobile somewhere around then.  Horrible timing. 

18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

NAM 3k wants to develop a secondary deformation band. It’s now cast time. Fingers crossed the sleet is short lived. Dynamic cooling for the win? I LOVE THAT it finally snowing! Give my Asperger’s a rest with obsessing over each run. 

Doesn’t it seem odd that a strong storm that has been organized for so long, and has a connection to the Caribbean, has such a spotty precipitation field?  This storm is so weird.  

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Don't look at ling range gfs then ice box. For entire run

I don’t mind the ice box, but when it goes from super cold, to 6hrs of warmth to ruin a snowstorm, then back to cold, it feels like all the cold is for nothing. 

-13° this morning.  It has been below -10° for over 8hrs and counting.  Snow starts in about 12hrs, mixing starts in about 24hrs.  Not cool. 

There seem to have been a lot of instances over the past few years where we hit very cold temps (say below zero) and then rain a day later.  It has happened enough that I find myself seeing a very cold forecast, then skeptically looking beyond to see what storm is going to pump warm air up.  It happened last Sunday and is happening again this Sunday/Monday.  Fascinating and infuriating all at the same time….

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I agree.  It has a chance to slip to the left or right of what we have been seeing.  At the same time the models are steadfast so what do I know?

I’m really baffled by how the models have been so consistent on showing such a rare track from +/-5 days out.  Curious to see if it verifies. 

50 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

6z GFS looks to pretty much hold serve  includes the backside lake effect for favored areas.  Low tracks east of euro so less dry slot issues…

 

 

It’s been interesting to see an area of much lower accumulations right over my house (western Delaware County) on many of the runs.  Go 25 miles East or West and it looks much better.  Remarkable consistency, really, for how far away the event still is.  Unfortunate, but remarkable. 

As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology.  24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY.

We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away.  

10 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

The amount of clippers shown in the long range is insane  Fresh snowpack every other day lol

Sounds like I’m really going to have to attack the 3/8” of glare ice from Sunday’s freezing rain on my driveway this week, rather than waiting for it to melt.  I’ll never be able to push snow with that ice under it. 

5 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Had a great ski at Breia today.

Fresh powder on a firm base.

It was -9F when I started out and warmed up to 0F when I left around 1:00.

I think this is my latest ever for first XC ski day of the winter.

 

 

Cool!  Where is that?

Edit:  I stopped being lazy and looked it up.  I have seen the trails in Boonville but didn’t realize how extensive the trail network is!  Do you mountain bike there in the summer?  Would I dare take my capable 8yr old to check it out? 

53 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Stop trying to get rid of all of us.

We will unite.

Just to clarify, I’m inviting Mike and his good luck into NY.  It’s you and your bad luck that I’m trying to get out of NY! 

19 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said:

We seem to have an uncanny ability to get slammed on the day we always plan to come home on every year from a snowmobile trip.. one trip usually this time or early February and we have to stay another day. I swear it's happened the last three years. Not complaining but this would be nutso.


P.S. Judah Cohen just also posted about this with being cautiously optimistic...

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1480908782242775055?s=20

Sounds like you should plan more trips….for the sake of all of us! 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I mean if I lived in Syracuse I would be in the middle of that thing right now after work. How far of a drive is it like 20-30 minutes? 

I care about snow retention, so I was few miles east of Pulaski.  It’s amazing how much that slow, almost unnoticeable, elevation gain makes a difference in snowpack.  I believe my drive down 81 to the 7th North St area (roughly the Thruway/81 interchange) was around 45 minutes in good weather.  20-30 minutes probably gets you to Brewerton and Central Square exits.  Central Square is the northern extent of “most” commuters…..much less traffic heading up to Parish, Mexico, Pulaski and beyond.  Only toothless people are allowed farther north. 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If I lived off Ontario I would have to pick a spot that got hit with bands like that. I couldn't do the NW transient flow bands. 

I did that, and then moved away to be closer to family.  I don’t regret that today.  Nope, not at all. 

54 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm not even looking to Monday and Tuesday. Looks like it's becoming another disappointment.

Models seem to again be going towards a SW Onondaga hit for tomorrow. I wonder when this 3 year crapfest will draw to a conclusion?

We are also wondering….when you’ll be moving back to Michigan…

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Sunny here with less then an inch looking north 

That’s an awesome photo knowing what is happening under those clouds!  Reminds me of working in N. Syracuse and having to drive home to east of Pulaski back in the day.  

18 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Sure! The Lake Michigan shoreline has a FANTASTIC state park system, along with community parks (where you can often park for free and then go swimming in the lake.) The natural sand dunes that exist along the shoreline are a sight to see. During the winter, the way the wind blows, the ice structures that form along the lake (different every year) are phenomenal. The communities along the lake also really invest in having celebrations and festivals throughout the year. (See Holland ,Grand Haven, etc...)

As far as pace of life....when my wife and I went back to visit this summer, we were reminded of the "Michigan Goodbye." You start saying bye and then an hour later you're still enjoying each other's company. Relationships have more priority than here. New Yorkers, in my opinion, are uptight and prioritize tasks and time over relationships.

People here are also stand-offish. Very generous...but have walls up. That's tough for a relational couple like us. It just takes more time...and people here apologize to us ALL the time if they feel like they are "wasting our time" or "sharing too much." We are always saying, "NO. That is what we want. RELAX."

If we hadn't moved here to be closer to family, we would move back to West Michigan in a heartbeat.

P.S. I love this subforum and the New Yorkers on here!

Always interesting to hear perceptions of other places relative to “home.”  Thanks for sharing.  

58 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

About 1/2" down here.  At least it's white!

We got a solid dusting overnight!